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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Ocean temps are in the upper 70s. It won’t do much anymore other than add humidity.
  2. jm1220
    Feels horrendous outside. Sea breeze doesn’t do a thing when dews are 75.
  3. jm1220
    We want the warmest water anomalies to be in the central Pacific not on the coast of Peru. That causes the strongest forcing to focus over the central Pacific and troughs to be more favored in the East. That’s called a Modoki or basinwide Nino. An east based strong Nino would likely be very warm for us like 97-98.
  4. jm1220
    Pretty much. If we get into a strong Nino we’ll be battling warm air but the Nino charged southern jet is good for surprises. Maybe if the W PAC stays warm the forcing can be near the dateline which encourages an eastern trough.
  5. jm1220
    107 in Austin TX yesterday and 108 the day before. And it’s not a “dry heat” there-heat index is over 110 when it’s that hot. I think their all time high was 111 in 2011 when they were in a La Niña drought. So they’re not far from it. When I was there it hit 104-105 a few times. Anything 100 and over is absolutely unbearable, like being in an oven.
  6. jm1220
    Some pop up cells. Maybe one of these can get me finally.
  7. jm1220
    Those storms literally fired up under a mile east/south of me.
  8. jm1220
    Another 3 second shower.
  9. jm1220
    Had a shower which lasted 3 seconds. Of course it’s coming together nicely for upstate and CT.
  10. jm1220
    So far nothing here.
  11. jm1220
    If the pattern changes to one with stronger offshore flow the waters will cool down from upwelling. I’m sure 100 feet down or less the waters are much colder and would up well to the surface with a pattern conducive to that. The pattern has supported a hot western Atlantic for some time due to the WAR on roids over the “winter” up to now.
  12. jm1220
    Total steam bath today with 75-77 dew points.
  13. jm1220
    Seeing a LOW of 101 is just…. wow.
  14. jm1220
    The waters to our south are all well above average, and constant southerly/onshore flow helps warm the waters up fast. Jones Beach water temp has been 77-79 degrees the past two days. That’s insane-the average highest water temp for the year is a month from now and 73-74. July is usually around 70.
  15. jm1220
    Up to 93.
  16. jm1220
    What a joke.
  17. jm1220
    Weak sauce seabreeze today. Numerous S Nassau/Suffolk stations still in the low 90s.
  18. jm1220
    Sea breeze front near Sunrise Highway, crawling north. Some stations near the front hit 90.
  19. jm1220
    As long as winds stay W or NW humidity shouldn’t be too big a deal but temps will be hotter on that wind direction so it probably all evens out. We wont have a problem hitting 90 today.
  20. jm1220
    Feels way better outside than it’s been. Enjoying it when I can.
  21. jm1220
    Keep watering!
  22. jm1220
    If any model did well RGEM probably won but I chalk that to a broken clock being right once. It was clearly a nowcast setup and what we needed didn’t happen for 90% of us. Cheers to those who did get deluged on the east end.
  23. jm1220
    And the 7-8 runs after that blasted us. Up to 21z I believe it was still giving 3-5” of rain almost island wide.
  24. jm1220
    Successful would’ve been something that could dent our drought, and for 90% of us east of the city we didn’t come close to that.
  25. jm1220
    90-95% of the island had under an inch. I still consider this overall a fail. Models generally had widespread much higher amounts.
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