jm1220

I’ll believe any of it when I see it. The models cranking a CCB over CT also clip this area, but the Euro would essentially be nothing-don’t be fooled by 10-1 maps in this situation.

That's the 10-1 map. That verbatim would be light white rain that if it sticks at all would be on some grass for a half hour. It also falls in the afternoon in mid March with temps probably around 35.

Ruined by this initial inverted trough which pinches off that low over CT. The offshore low gets going too late but in time to nail Boston. The CCB sends us some light slush tomorrow as a final FU. Disaster but expected.

To be fair any snow we would get near the coast would be after then.

Those are high clouds that as you can see largely aren’t producing precip. That panel is after the storm is vertically stacked/occluded which means the mechanisms for lifting air efficiently-divergence aloft and the frontal boundaries near the low are largely gone. So it essentially snows/rains itself out. There is also dry mid level air that has choked off the storm.

It did very well here on the 2/28 event but was too high on the south shore.

This is very preliminary stuff driven by the inverted trough (essentially a front driven by easterly winds pushing into an area of northerly winds). The coastal storm and much heavier activity starts late tonight into tomorrow.

Probably. For the purpose of getting me to 8.5” from 7.5 on the season it works, but I couldn’t care less otherwise about an inch on the grass that’ll be gone in a half hour in mid March in mid afternoon.

A few of the models do have some remnant of the CCB over Suffolk County especially tomorrow. I doubt it adds up to anything since it will be falling during the day in marginal temps but something to keep an eye on. I wouldn’t expect more than an inch or so on grass in lucky places.

Torched boundary layer today from the inverted trough mess, and dynamics later get going further east, plus LHV gets downsloped to an extent.

Sure, people on the margins like the LHV can go either way. Lack of elevation/shadowing will hurt some. Down here was never on the margins. We were slightly more likely than a Hail Mary.

I don’t see anyone here who was shocked. Pissed/disappointed sure.

Not really. 3/5/01 was a much bigger head fake all the way down to DC. To be honest despite the wild fluctuations in low position, etc, if people were paying attention to the evolution of the storm/pattern it was clear where this one was favored for a few days now. There are some on the margins like Boston that might still get crushed if the CCB blossoms and pivots over them but the Catskills to the Albany area to the Berkshires/Worcester Hills have been ground zero since Thu-Fri.

Hunter Mountain might be the best place of any with this. Perfect for a huge upslope easterly flow event. They may get 30”.

I’m expecting white rain here tomorrow. I’d be stunned if anything accumulates more than some slush on the grass. Total epic fail here once again. But it does happen in some of these storms that the LI Sound and the terrain can enhance the snow here when we have a NE flow that causes some frictional convergence and some upslope on the north shore. My snow average is close to 35” which is comparable to the CT coast. This winter though 7.5”. Utter fail.

New Euro run puts the low over central CT so maybe spoke too soon about Boston getting crushed. Have to admit, this winter has been a total fail there too.

There were a few stray model runs for the most part that had a good event in NYC. The focus has always been the Catskills over to the Worcester hills. The basic setup is lousy to awful for us down here and we needed the low to bomb early on and consolidate. That very likely won’t happen so this is the outcome we get. It was only a 10% likelihood IMO for anything decent here. Boston/E MA will likely get hit with the departing CCB since a late developing low is fine for them. We’ll probably get some light nonaccumulating snow tomorrow as we watch them get pounded. Agree-this “winter” needs to end ASAP.

Multiple times. 12/30/00, 2/25/10, 2/1/21, Lindsay Storm 1969, Blizzard of 1888 etc. But yea, this definitely won't be one of them.

Not really, but it did get a little better generally for most of us.

At some point it may be but with this inverted trough that pinches off a low, we're essentially facing the same outcome as a low hugging the coast and coming inland. The offshore low needs to take over very quickly to mute that effect but models show now that it won't, either from the southern stream flung way out at sea, chasing convection, sloppy phase, whatever the problem. There's always a problem this "winter"/turd in the punchbowl.

This storm definitely can produce if it comes together right (although it's hanging on by the thinnest of threads here since the 18z Euro dropped another turd a few minutes ago). It's harder for sure but the right setup can produce. It's just that this is not an especially favorable setup for snow at any point in the year much less now. Having to overcome howling easterly winds from 45 degree water isn't where anyone near NYC wants to get started into a snow event. This inverted trough crap also came back on all the modeling which is the nail in the coffin. It's a great setup for the Catskills and Berkshires which don't need the cold setup we do and will get buried on the easterly upslope flow.

Yep that doesn’t help either. The ridge making the northern stream dig is progressive/flat. There’s some semblance of blocking but no real cold available. The flow out ahead of this as we see now is easterly and we have no cold air ahead of the storm. That’s not an issue inland and elevations but here it’s death unless the CCB can crank and we can use dynamics to our advantage. A POS like the GFS will just be cold rain to dry slot to mood white rain flakes at the end.

There’s still time for models to get a clue if that’s wrong, but the late/sloppy phase clearly won’t do it for us near the coast. And that lousy result can be right. Last winter’s two Jan storms chased convection to varying degrees and would’ve been way better otherwise in the city.

Gee whiz.

It was shoving the low into CT last run so I would disagree.