jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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If NAM is right, CT makes up for today big time tomorrow with the remnant low.
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It’s the remnant low from Ophelia heading toward the NJ coast, and because dry air wrapped into the eastern/southern side of the storm, the rain will be on the north side where we are.
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Dry air/confluence largely won north of the Sound/I-80. Models had the jackpot along the NJ shore today for a while. Tomorrow should be everyone’s turn with the remnant low.
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Up to about 0.70”.
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Long Beach/SW Nassau the place to be for heavy rain today. Already over an inch there with heavy rain falling now. Here it’s mostly been between mist to light rain, looks like a heavy shower about to come through shortly.
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About 0.35” here.
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GFS still with under a half inch north of I-78 through Mon 9z. Comical how far apart these models are this close in.
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The background state is getting warmer, so a cold pattern will be a little less cold and warmer patterns significantly warmer, but I think more research needs to be done on these marine heatwaves and how they affect the global patterns. It’s been plenty to near record cold in the Northwest in the past several winters. The W PAC marine heatwaves especially near Indonesia have been sticking the MJO in phases 4-6 repeatedly even when a Nino tries to develop. The PDO might be in a negative multi decade phase now but the waters near Japan are practically on fire and negates the warm water trying to move toward the W Coast. The warm water near Newfoundland probably helps cause further south NAO blocks when they do develop. I’m sure it’s not the only cause or 60% cause or whatever but it’ll be interesting to read what feedbacks they help drive since the oceans contain the vast majority of the global heat budget especially in the tropics.
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I don’t care if there’s 2-3” of rain here on LI. The weekend’s ruined regardless. I was pointing out what might happen because of the ridging and confluence over Canada. If we get soaked or not, great.
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Interesting battle between the GFS and NAM which keep drying the rain up in the confluence, and RGEM that’s still very wet. Euro looks to be in the middle and still gets rain all the way upstate. If I had to pick one group I’d pick the dry models since we’ve seen setups like these before that ended up drier than expected because it has to overcome reinforcing high pressure/dry air. And Sunday is looking drier on those models as well because the confluence is being reinforced in Quebec. But like I said regardless, it’s going to be an awful weekend.
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Gonna be an awful weekend whether it's 1" or 3" of rain.
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RGEM definitely still wet but more of it comes Sunday due to the dry air issue on Saturday. And the confluence is weaker so the heavy rain/low gets well north.
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Wouldn't shock me. On Sat, the storm will be pushing north into a lot of dry air/confluence due to a high building north of the area and northerly flow coming from Canada, so the initial push of heavy rain might dry up once at a certain latitude. Sat might be waves of heavy rain getting eaten up in the dry air. The low coming closest to the area on Sunday would mean more of a chance of heavy rain, but the confluence doesn't really go away and the low gets forced east off the NJ coast. GFS actually has a reinforcing wave of confluence coming south in Canada on Sunday. I can definitely see a sharp cutoff between 2"+ and little rain because of the dry air/confluence and the low being forced east. Models are starting to key in on maybe I-84 or a little north from there for the cutoff. Regardless of the heavy rain it'll be a nasty weekend with 30+ mph winds which the pressure gradient makes worse.
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Suppressing flow coming from the north as well via the Canadian ridge. Still the question of whether the tropical low cuts N or NNW from the Carolina coast or is shoved east because of the suppressing flow over New England.
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On that I agree, strong Ninos are usually stormy for us. Hopefully we don’t have everything suppressed or get overwhelmed with Pacific air. We also still have competing Nina influences so it’ll be interesting to see how it shakes out.
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We’ll see. Odds favor it but I can see it being squashed underneath us by the massive central Canada ridge suppressing the flow and weaker SE ridge due to the cold water chopped up by the recent hurricanes. In any event I have outdoor plans this weekend so I hope the squashed/suppressed outcome happens. Which means it won’t.
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We’re probably still in for a soaking here but it’s all about the SE ridge, if it’s weaker this can slide/get booted east quicker. The models all lurching east at 12z say the Euro might be onto something.
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That’s actually a good bump east, it was plowing the low into PA before.
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Radar estimate about 0.8” here. Heavy shower just went through.
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Rain here’s about done. Will probably end with about 0.6”.
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It’ll be a test to see how much the SE ridge can flex and cause a coastal track or it can get away with sliding well east out to sea. El Niño favors a more muted SE ridge and this summer there have been lots of recurves, but the ridge always seems to be undermodeled as well.
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It is raining pretty hard now, maybe we make up some ground.
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I have about 0.33” and it had me well over an inch. This last batch might get me to 0.5” but the inch or more will be to my east. If any model did well it might be the RGEM. Scratch that, maybe HRRR?
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That’s the coastal low precip that should hit the E half of Suffolk. As for us we’re mostly done. Euro fails yet again.
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The split screw dry zone from 2 days ago is showing up on radar for the NJ coast and will probably push into W LI. We’ll see how much of the coastal system rain can affect LI. So the models that kept that idea will likely be right.
