jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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I would just ignore anything either NAM outputs until tomorrow. It’s garbage.
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Ouch at Albany with that downslope. Otherwise I’m closing the shades on this unless there’s a huge turnaround tonight.
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Central Park still has a good shot at futility. If this fails which you have to say looks more likely than not at this point it’s an F. I have 7.5” with roughly a 35” seasonal average. Huge F.
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That depends on how strong the low gets and moving on a good track. If it’s like the GFS/Euro we won’t get much of anything since it will bomb too late or too far east. We really need a NAM like outcome.
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Where we are will get blitzed by easterly winds before anything hits the ground which will likely be rain since it’s coming from 45 degree waters.
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In terms of nice warm weather finally or another storm that will inevitably fail?
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If it’s really a phased bomb in the right location a la NAM, there definitely could be big totals near the city, 10”+ because there would be 1-2”/hr rates easy in the CCB under a heavy band. But if it’s a more sloppy outcome and it phases too late like the GFS or it plows into CT like GGEM it could be just white rain at the end. Still a ton of uncertainty.
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UKMET looked pretty good, about the same as last night.
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If you’re in the valley locations near the Tappan Zee etc you probably want the more NAM like outcome with the earlier phase and consolidated low because the other models that develop the low later don’t get the dynamics going, and it may snow moderately but be hard to stick especially during the day. But there’ll probably be several inches in Rockland, Westchester etc. If you’re elevated more than a few hundred feet or so 6” is much more likely.
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It would be really good if the foreign globals camp stay on a snowier outcome here but this is a very delicate setup that in a snap can go to total garbage. I'd maybe up the percentage to 20% that NYC has significant impacts (I don't count yet another washout as significant). I wouldn't start honking until the models tomorrow 12z are on board with the NAM like solution. Waaaaay too much can go wrong.
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That's probably what I'd do at this point. The Catskills should easily see 12-18", hopefully the shadowing/downslope isn't too bad in the valley. NYC/LI/much of NJ I'd still go very conservative until these disaster outcomes like the GFS jump on. This could easily still be a washout with some white rain at the end with the too late/sloppy phase. NAM is just a horrible model that can't be trusted.
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I would weigh GFS more than the insane NAM run. Until the globals start showing solutions like that I wouldn't buy it. GFS has the problem we've generally been seeing-phases/bombs way too late after our initial airmass is ruined by the inverted trough and easterly wind, which is where 90% of NYC's precip comes from. By the time the low does bomb, the heavy precip is gone other than some wraparound light snow that likely wouldn't accumulate. The GFS still insisting on that ugly outcome is a concern for sure.
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New RGEM is waaaaay more subdued for NYC. Not saying things aren't improving but needs to be a lot of caution before going crazy with a big snowstorm now in the city.NAM can easily yank it right back at 18z and we need to see the other globals at 12z to observe any trends.
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PLEASE verify (it won't). But it can be a significant event if we get that consolidated low early as this run showed.
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Again a trend towards an earlier consolidated low, so the CCB cranks in time for us. Exactly what we need.
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Double low with one just off NJ means the inverted trough is ruining our airmass here even more and we waste most of the storm with rain while the main low and dynamics take forever to get going. No that's not what we want.
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UK is often slightly too warm at the surface. The key is consolidating the offshore low early and turning the flow around to NE to push the warm maritime crap away and make us benefit from crashing heights/dynamics.
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If we can get the Euro to show that as well for a couple runs, maybe we're onto something. Trend does seem to be to develop that offshore low sooner which brings colder air in and heavy snow banding.
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UKMET back to being hilarious. Has 12" or nearly in NYC and nothing in Hartford/Springfield because of downslope. Boston gets slushy 1-2" at the end. I can't imagine how SNE would melt down from that (there'd be little to melt anyway). I'd pay big bucks to see that.
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This is a very complex setup and tiny changes in where/if/when phasing occurs, amplitude of the trough etc can have dramatic effects so we’re not “out” of it until tomorrow night I’d say if it’s not looking favorable. That said the odds are way higher for a major impact in places like the Catskills and Berkshires than us near the coast. We need way more to go right. Expect a washout but if we roll snake eyes somehow it can be a good outcome.
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Offshore low cranks sooner, ends the inverted trough garbage and builds a CCB that clips most of us. The heavy amounts will shift around and it’s impossible to know where bands would set up, but that’s what we need to see near the coast to have a shot. GFS is a convoluted mess that hopefully is just the model confused with the setup and not knowing what to emphasize.
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If we get wraparound mood snow for a while it likely wouldn't accumulate if it's battling 34-35 degree temps and March sun. We would optimally want it to happen at night, and the low to bomb earlier and form a CCB over us so we get the benefit of heavy rates and cold air from the crashing heights.
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Expect rain and be happy if it turns into something more. The inverted trough is ruining it (which causes that low reflection near NJ) like the other runs/models. That needs to go away for the NYC area to see anything other than a washout.
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Yes we would definitely want the Euro depiction of it closing off sooner and a little further SW than the GGEM has. The storm really doesn’t go to town until those upper lows close off and heights crash to bring cold air in. The initial precip is really from a frontal boundary of sorts caused by an inverted trough that brings in warm air on the east side of it which is where we start off.
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Depends on where that initial inverted trough precip sets up, should be cold enough in the Poconos for it to be snow.
