jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Keep watering!
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I was out in that area yesterday. Would never expect they’d be the area to get nailed on LI. Looks like ISP ended with 0.49”. I probably ended with something similar-just two moderate showers early and the period of moderate rain around 11pm.
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Said now many times-set expectations low to rock bottom on any interesting LI weather in the summer.
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And what a joke performance by the HRRR. Disaster by that model but others had widespread 1-3” here. That’ll be a total fail. Drought continues. Lawns are parched/burnt for many and most near the south shore/east end now.
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Raining moderately. It’ll rinse my car off, that’s about it. Maybe it adds up to 0.2” in the end?
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Whatever this stuff is looks like it’s all LI’s getting. Maybe east of the William Floyd gets clipped by these T-storms. And my luck-the broken part of it looks headed for my backyard.
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HRRR has us getting 3-5”. Might be totally wrong, like I said it’ll be a nowcast situation. If this falling apart line is all there is and we don’t see more convection firing, we’ll know which was right. So far I had two moderate showers that maybe brought .05”.
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I would just watch the radar and see what happens. Obviously if HRRR is wrong right now it’s likely wrong 12 hours from now.
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HRRR blasts LI later tonight but it’s laughably wrong with what’s happening right now over NJ. I think anything we see or don’t east of the city is really a nowcast situation to see if this wave/convection forms.
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Storms seem to be making headway east over DE, hopefully that persists. There’s a shot here east of the city this time. But the storms probably wouldn’t be training over this area so we’d probably get 1-2” but it’s hugely welcome.
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If the trigger to make convection dies out so does the convection. The wave/low needs to happen to keep the hope alive east of the city. I hope for the NW crew it dies down but we could really use what’s over the Delmarva now to survive to this area. A few heavy showers won’t cut it.
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Looks like a heavier shower about to hit, coming up Rt 110.
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Basically a few sprinkles here in the marine layer soup but heavier showers are starting to pop. Hopefully for you guys north and west this line shifts east later. We definitely can use it here.
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Not sure about that but 5”+ definitely possible where the storms are training. West of Philly already has over 3” by radar estimate and I-476 to Allentown’s getting crushed.
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The wave along the front scenario would probably bring the rain in and out quicker too so there wouldn't be a lot of time to ramp up the totals east of the city. It wouldn't be like today where we're already seeing training T-storms over the same people that got it the last 2 weeks.
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The constant S wind is good for driving up the water temp. Offshore winds promote upwelling. Also why our dewpoints are going so much higher and the seabreeze doesn't deliver relief anymore-just more humidity.
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If this wave/low happens, we can finally get a widespread 1-2” east of the city. If we’re just relying on activity along the front, we’ll get very little and NJ/Hudson Valley get slammed again. It’ll be a nowcast situation. Either way I doubt given how dry it’s been that there would be much flooding east of the city besides some on roads here/there if the rain is heavy.
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Last summer it was night and day south and north of the LIE. My area was hit numerous times and south shore dried to a crisp. This summer’s way more widespread on LI with the dry conditions.
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NAM 3k shows a more organized system/wave that can get heavy rain for everyone. If it’s the usual southerly flow deal, it’ll end up the same way it’s been since mid June. We need a wave along the front or a more organized synoptic type system.
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Some seabreeze showers developing on the north shore.
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If Isaias hit NC at 110-115 mph we likely would’ve had a multi billion dollar disaster in the NYC area because of wind/power damage. As it was Farmingdale gusted over hurricane force, imagine 95-100 mph instead.
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It’s probably our future to become more Florida like in the summers as the Bermuda high/ridge builds north. The westerly wind heat blast would shoot north of us and we get the humidity on the southerly flow. That also comes with the warming waters.
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Models have the rain focusing on NJ, upstate and E PA just like the last 2 weeks while we keep drying out. Woo hoo. I guess the models are finally getting smart and giving up on drenching east of the city. If we’re also going into a hot pattern, east of the city will probably be in severe drought in several weeks. Lawns already look terrible that aren’t getting watered.
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Goodbye smoke, hello sweat.
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And with those warm waters our humidity goes way up. The sea breeze lowers the temp but keeps the dew above 70 so no relief.
