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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    HRRR still has 3-6" across the island, more west. The initial heavy rain will be west of us but during the day tomorrow it evolves into more of a comma shape and translates east. I'm glad it's walking away from the Aug 2014 and 2011 type insane totals, that would be major to catastrophic.
  2. jm1220
    You can start to see where this initial round of rain is favoring.
  3. jm1220
    And behind that the radar’s lighting up too. We’ll have more than plenty by this time tomorrow.
  4. jm1220
    I wouldn’t focus on the run to run shifting on any model, I’d just focus on the radar. It’ll be a nowcast situation. These setups tend to favor NJ and the city but it really could be anywhere and the models all have the heavy rain axis pivoting around, so one swath will get the most in the AM but eventually everyone gets the hose.
  5. jm1220
    Someone might get that with a setup like this. My hunch is it'll be west of us but we'll get plenty too.
  6. jm1220
    HRRR keeps trending west. Better news for me, bad news for the city. If the current radar means anything, the heavier showers seem pointed towards the city.
  7. jm1220
    If anything it’s trending west. We’ll see what happens as it gets together.
  8. jm1220
    Absolutely. Kudos to @wdrag. I was hoping he was wrong but here we are.
  9. jm1220
    And it’s still raining then.
  10. jm1220
    It moved a little west from 12z but yes still a huge drenching. The inverted trough and upper air dynamics will focus the very moist flow coming in from the east, where that axis sets up will get walloped. And over time it’s expected to pivot around so even though not all of us will get 10”, many will probably get 3-4”.
  11. jm1220
    Maybe they can all wear bathing suits and swim between the bases. The coaches can put down buoys for the bases.
  12. jm1220
    It’ll be a nowcast event to see where the training sets up and the very high end amounts. It should pivot around a little so we all should get a good soaking. But they do happen on LI too, it’s just been since 2014 they’ve been west of here. Aug 2011 and 2014 were the worst drenchers.
  13. jm1220
    Good. Definitely needed.
  14. jm1220
    You can already see the showers almost on the NJ shore so you knew the Euro/eastern models would be shifting west. UKMET is probably furthest east now.
  15. jm1220
    There’s more rain after this panel but Euro would be a manageable event general 2-3” vs major flooding.
  16. jm1220
    Yikes. And I agree, people are definitely thinking tomorrow will just be a normal rainy day.
  17. jm1220
    To be fair I think that’s the max ensemble member not the mean, but shows the scary potential here. That’s a 15” dot just north of me. And obviously many millions of people are in 7”+.
  18. jm1220
    From 12z
  19. jm1220
    That was on a different model-HRRR. The “bullseye” might really be anywhere in our sub forum but even if not there it looks to be a much bigger area of 2-3”+ rain.
  20. jm1220
    New UKMET has 10.5” rain at Islip, looks just like Aug 2014 again with amounts/distribution. Upton should really be issuing watches soon.
  21. jm1220
    Also very lucky that it hit LI during low tide. There was some surge flooding but nothing extreme like Sandy at high tide.
  22. jm1220
    Figured I’d bring this back for the rain threat tomorrow. Models other than the GFS are converging on very heavy rain for at least some/most here. HRRR most extreme with 10+ but other models with 5-6+ inches would also cause big problems.
  23. jm1220
    Not sure how reliable the RRFS (Pivotal says it’s an experimental model) is, but add that to the soakers at 12z.
  24. jm1220
    Yep, hoping for that scenario. The other hi res models like the ARW are also very wet, 5”+ for most.
  25. jm1220
    I would think flash flood watches should go up this afternoon given the trends to these huge rain amounts. Generally from PHL to BOS is probably a good bet.
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