jm1220

We were destined/doomed to regress back to our long term average after the bonanza seasons since 2000. It would be more stunning if we didn’t. We’ve had awful stretches here before- most of the 1980s, late 1990s etc. We’re probably entering one of those. If there’s some more “permanent” state where we won’t see snow vs we otherwise would, I’d give it several more winters at least before calling it. This winter was just horrendously bad in all sorts of ways that hopefully won’t repeat anytime soon. The PNA was as hostile as it’s been in several decades as Bluewave pointed out. If we’re entering a long term -PDO state, we will have lousy winters more often than not. The warm waters off the SE certainly pumped the ridge somewhat but I see it as more of a response to the awful PNA. I do see the climate shifting eventually to a point where it’s just too warm to snow here often but it’s probably a few decades away at our latitude. 2021-22 was decent to good for the eastern half of LI and 2020-21 was a very good winter for many of us. There are more ways to get a snowy pattern here than DC, which unfortunately for them the warming Atlantic doesn’t help since they don’t really benefit from more Miller B type lows. Maybe if this Nino happens it can be a test for them since that favors earlier developing Miller As from the Gulf.

Hopefully we can get a Nino next winter that can check the -PNA. That was the culprit more than anything. When we constantly have a trough diving into San Diego, it’s lights out for us. That forces a response from the SE ridge. And we want some SE ridge to keep the pattern from going suppressed in a Nino.

27 here. Maybe my last sub-30 morning?

Wouldn't surprise me if Long Beach ended with 1-2". The 2/28 event was either rain or nonaccumulating snow there when I had 5", and the other minor events I had either didn't happen on the extreme south shore or were minor coatings.

I think it’s safe to call the record for Central Park at this point. So needless to say, this winter was an utter disaster. IMBY total was 8.5”. 19-20 was close but this was worse.

Conditions must be insane along I-195 right now. That S NJ alley keeps producing.

Shocker.

I consider it a win if there’s more than a dying thundershower here from these lines coming from the west. They collapse immediately when hitting the marine layer east of the city. And this time of year that effect is even greater.

OOOOOOK then! Godspeed! Thankfully odds are totally in our favor given how awesome those models have been at day 8-9 with snowstorms they’ve shown this winter.

We were stuck in a dry slot while SNE over to E PA were slammed. What E PA had we were supposed to.

Scary. The same places recently hit by tornadoes are in line again today.

We might get another one or two. Looks like another strong cold front coming through on Sunday?

Not me, if anyone would I’d say @bluewave or @donsutherland1 Thanks for compiling the data!

Those Nina’s must have been way negative PNA ones like this season where the trough and storms were deep enough to slam into CA.

If we have another quiet summer with little tropical activity and it’s hot (quite possible if we’re going into a Nino) that will expand. The typical south shore drought season puts that area in moderate drought.

I think we can call it a fait accompli at this point.

The volcano released a ton of water vapor which traps heat, not so much sulfur which would reflect heat. If we can have a favorable Nino next winter and get rid of the Nina influence we should be better off at least.

God I hope not.

Yep, also very limited lake effect once you go east of the Allegheny Ridge or Laurel Highlands. A few times per season State College gets the remnants of a streamer that can drop up to 1-2” but often it’s squalls that can quickly coat the ground then get blown away. I went to PSU there right after the big 2002-03 and 2003-04 seasons that started off the generally lame stretch that continues today outside a few exceptions. Was quite frustrating seeing all types of storms hit east and north of there.

31” is still atrocious for State College. Their long term average is right around Boston’s. There has definitely been a shift in the last 15 years away from big snow seasons in central PA. Maybe it’s lack of clippers along with fewer coast hugging Miller A type systems. All the cutters along with more Miller Bs skip right over them or sleet/rain just like here. All the SWFEs do them zero good.

Surprised. I remember 2003-04 as a colder winter than the one before although both were quite cold. The mid January 2004 pure fluff clipper with 8” in the single digits is the coldest snowstorm I can remember.

It’ll likely be below freezing a few more times at least where I am. Since the city could barely get to freezing last night in strong CAA I have to agree.

Down to 22 here.

He still posts outlooks on Twitter.