jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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It’ll probably be a coating to a half inch which will be nice to see but will be gone a few hours later or as soon as the sun can get to it.
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It’s really the densely populated part of S Nassau that’s bad. N Nassau where there’s elevation and more thinly populated isn’t as bad with the UHI. Even Bayside/Douglaston isn’t so bad. They can do well in marginal events that I remember SW Nassau especially being white rain.
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If you’re referring to 1/12/11 it was probably 8-9” in Long Beach. It was just something of a late bloomer like you said that nailed Suffolk County and especially CT. The dividing line here is really the LIE I’d say, which is where the terrain becomes elevated/hilly. Distance from the UHI also helps but the few extra miles from the ocean influence also help.
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The snow average where I am is I’d say 35”, NorthShoreWX has Smithtown at 38” going back to the early 1990s I think. That’s on par with or better than S CT. It’s worlds different here than SW Nassau where I grew up. It’s not like interior New England here for sure but coastal CT/RI, sure. 2018-19 and 2020-21 even were laughably different at times between Long Beach and here. Many more early and late freezes as well being away from the UHI. Most don’t realize that the Sound actually helps enhance LI snowfall as well in major events where we have strong NE winds bring some moisture as well as an orographic lift/frictional convergence component. In the late Jan 2022 major event it was blindingly obvious how the Sound effect helped linger the snow. If people think there’s no difference between the two areas, try the comparison over a few winters and it becomes pretty apparent. We’re definitely not a snow belt but it does help here and there and it does add up in normal winters, not atrocities like this year.
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UKMET hasn't looked terrible for Mon PM/Tue for second run now and it's the furthest south with the evolution but wouldn't jump on it until another reliable model heads that way.
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What we do get on Mon night/Tue will probably be in and out in 8 hours since the primary low will drive the dry slot in before the coastal can take over-on all the modeling at this point unless you're well into CT or way upstate. And on the GFS at least for my immediate area on the north shore it shows a close shave between very cold rain, sleet and even snow if the heavy precip can cool the column down on the soundings. Based on that it's possible that much of Suffolk gets a ton of sleet from this and can avoid a washout. In the city the soundings look a little milder. But my bet is still that anyone near the coast gets quick sleet to rain, and a ton of sleet north of the city to near I-84. Saturday looks interesting for wintry/mood snow but doesn't look like more than the few coatings to half inch we've gotten this "winter". I guess it'll be nice for the few hours it's around.
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As you go further east on LI, the climate becomes more New England like. NYC is a transition spot between Mid Atlantic and New England-like climates. NYC can be slammed with just about every winter storm type but totally screwed at the same time, and almost always ends up near the gradient. The upcoming Tue storm SWFE to Miller B is the type that just about always will clobber Boston unless there's a major shift in its evolution. We don't have a winter storm type here that will always clobber us-we always sweat until the very end. But this one is clearly trending the wrong way.
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We could still get a nice snow event in that timeframe if we can line up a well timed system and some blocking. To me that kind of cold anomaly everywhere might just mean cold and dry but we’ll see.
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What's more relevant for us are the lows shown headed NW of Buffalo. Not sure what the trend over time with those has been but I've never seen a good outcome here where we have a low in the 980s headed NW of Buffalo. We want that low to be dying off way sooner than that. You also have to look at the individual members for snow to see if a few crazy members are throwing the mean off.
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I highly doubt it but Godspeed I guess. My guess is they end up between 25-30" but you're right that it's relatively easy for you guys to go on a crazy few week run. On their way there hopefully we peasants down here can be granted a day or two with enough snow to cover the grass, that will stay for more than the hour long intervals we've had a coating so far. I'll be more than happy to settle with that. And then hopefully not shiver in months of backdoor fronts like we suffered the last two springs.
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Below normal in southern ME but not terribly so. Portland ME has 34" for the season, their average up to now is 49". Gray ME which is near Portland has 42.7", their average up to now is 59". But both sites are doing better than this time last year. Concord NH has 37.6", their average up to now is 48.7". It does get substantially worse in SNE-Boston has 9.7" so far but I think that clears their all time worst for snow and they're golden for a significant event from the Tue event unless it totally craps the bed which I guess is possible. So by this time next week it's likely they're over 20" which is still quite lousy for them but even proportionally to average much better than we'll be if we get another washout. Other New England spots: -Hartford: 9.9" so far -Worcester: 21.0" so far -Providence: 4.9" so far
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Couldn't care less about anymore model fantasies 8-10 or whatever days from now. Just end this nightmare. At least DC gets their 80 degree day today while we get socked in 38 degree raw gunk.
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We can cash in on any number of storm types when the pieces align but also get absolutely shafted. This winter represents climo Nina to the nth degree. New England usually does perfectly fine in Nina winters and can hold onto the cold air longer in the endless SWFE/cutter trains Ninas cause but we're just below the line where we need the SE ridge to be checked. Sucks.
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Was just going to say don't even bother looking. For the city/LI it's maybe brief sleet to rain. Still good N of the city but if this stronger primary idea is real it'll start hurting there too. It's a SWFE as far as we're concerned and whatever secondary does develop does so too late to benefit anyone other than eastern New England. Confluence ahead of it looks modest as well and gets kicked right out. If there's no good turnaround in this trend and soon, the majority of us are done. It'll be an I-90 focused event like so many of these end up.
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Could be okay here for a couple hours but as I said if it’s sleet to rain I’d rather it just not happen. You’re right about the Hudson Valley but so far if you’re I-84 and N it’s been looking good. However in these the sleet always makes it further north than expected at this point especially if we’re still dealing with the strong primary driving mid level warmth in.
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We've had a winter full of storms like these that cut for the lakes. Makes perfect sense. The one difference here is that there's half decent confluence/blocking around, but if it's wilting away as it approaches it does us zero good. But it does Boston plenty of good since they have much more wiggle room due to the high placement and preceding blocking, and their climo does the rest with their much better outcomes in miller B situations and plenty of decent SWFE outcomes too. Unless there's a huge wrinkle they're golden for a warning event, and that's on the low end. Bottom line is as I've said we need this Nina to be gone. We technically have a chance at this where we are but my bet would be for another garbage outcome like the rest unless you're N and especially NE of the city a good 50+ miles.
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Perfect kick in the teeth run. Would be absolutely fitting for the bookend to be 50 miles NE of me or so getting buried while I sleet to rain.
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If this winter’s not an F I can’t think of one that possibly could be. Flowers shooting up in mid February and bugs everywhere sitting on generously 1.5” for the season and no real threat to speak of (I don’t consider 2/28 a real threat yet where I am unless by some miracle it trends away from being another crap SWFE). Whatever takes this horse behind the barn and puts it out of its misery sooner, the better. GTFO “Winter” 22-23.
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I also can’t count how many times the models incorrectly at this stage showed a big thump of snow SE of a closed 700/850 low when in reality it’s maybe an hour of good snow before sleet then rain because they don’t see the fast mid level warming. If the trend is toward a longer lasting and north primary, odds for those of us outside well N areas are about done for anything more than a quick thump that quickly washes away.
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Can’t think of a time that setup has ever worked for us-a well defined primary making it into Canada. If it trends into a run of the mill SWFE I’ll take a hard pass.
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I’ll have to look into some of the data and Bluewave would know much better, but it took near record blocking IIRC to get the 2/1/21 Miller B to work out for NYC. It really takes some doing/luck for these redevelopers to work out for most of us. They certainly can but like I said it’s like drawing an inside straight. If the blocking really will be significant we have a chance. If it starts to wilt as the storm approaches we’re screwed.
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I’d consider 10” to be a miracle at this point. Even for my backyard that averages about 35”. I have just over 1” so far lol. We’re almost in March and we just can’t expect much despite the bonanzas like March 2018.
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Boston is having a lousy winter but not completely shut out like we are and they have as good a chance as anyone with this upcoming setup-unless something seriously goes wrong with this early next week storm they’re in for at least a solid warning event. Nina winters in general work out just fine for most of New England and are on balance probably better than El Niño especially stronger Ninos because SWFE events which Nina’s send trains of work out way better there. 07-08 was a great New England winter but totally sucked in NYC for that reason. At this point I couldn’t care less about 1-3” to rain that washes it away 2 hours later. If that’s what we get I’d be annoyed if anything since we wouldn’t get the #1 least snowy winter spot. I’d be at least rooting on some kind of record to end this utter disaster.
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I’m most interested in seeing that trend with the confluence than anything else. It’s the only way those of us SW of I-84 in CT have a real shot at this. And the confluence needs to stay in place and not scoot out as the low approaches.
