jm1220

I’m expecting white rain here tomorrow. I’d be stunned if anything accumulates more than some slush on the grass. Total epic fail here once again. But it does happen in some of these storms that the LI Sound and the terrain can enhance the snow here when we have a NE flow that causes some frictional convergence and some upslope on the north shore. My snow average is close to 35” which is comparable to the CT coast. This winter though 7.5”. Utter fail.

New Euro run puts the low over central CT so maybe spoke too soon about Boston getting crushed. Have to admit, this winter has been a total fail there too.

There were a few stray model runs for the most part that had a good event in NYC. The focus has always been the Catskills over to the Worcester hills. The basic setup is lousy to awful for us down here and we needed the low to bomb early on and consolidate. That very likely won’t happen so this is the outcome we get. It was only a 10% likelihood IMO for anything decent here. Boston/E MA will likely get hit with the departing CCB since a late developing low is fine for them. We’ll probably get some light nonaccumulating snow tomorrow as we watch them get pounded. Agree-this “winter” needs to end ASAP.

Multiple times. 12/30/00, 2/25/10, 2/1/21, Lindsay Storm 1969, Blizzard of 1888 etc. But yea, this definitely won't be one of them.

Not really, but it did get a little better generally for most of us.

At some point it may be but with this inverted trough that pinches off a low, we're essentially facing the same outcome as a low hugging the coast and coming inland. The offshore low needs to take over very quickly to mute that effect but models show now that it won't, either from the southern stream flung way out at sea, chasing convection, sloppy phase, whatever the problem. There's always a problem this "winter"/turd in the punchbowl.

This storm definitely can produce if it comes together right (although it's hanging on by the thinnest of threads here since the 18z Euro dropped another turd a few minutes ago). It's harder for sure but the right setup can produce. It's just that this is not an especially favorable setup for snow at any point in the year much less now. Having to overcome howling easterly winds from 45 degree water isn't where anyone near NYC wants to get started into a snow event. This inverted trough crap also came back on all the modeling which is the nail in the coffin. It's a great setup for the Catskills and Berkshires which don't need the cold setup we do and will get buried on the easterly upslope flow.

Yep that doesn’t help either. The ridge making the northern stream dig is progressive/flat. There’s some semblance of blocking but no real cold available. The flow out ahead of this as we see now is easterly and we have no cold air ahead of the storm. That’s not an issue inland and elevations but here it’s death unless the CCB can crank and we can use dynamics to our advantage. A POS like the GFS will just be cold rain to dry slot to mood white rain flakes at the end.

There’s still time for models to get a clue if that’s wrong, but the late/sloppy phase clearly won’t do it for us near the coast. And that lousy result can be right. Last winter’s two Jan storms chased convection to varying degrees and would’ve been way better otherwise in the city.

Gee whiz.

It was shoving the low into CT last run so I would disagree.

I would just ignore anything either NAM outputs until tomorrow. It’s garbage.

Ouch at Albany with that downslope. Otherwise I’m closing the shades on this unless there’s a huge turnaround tonight.

Central Park still has a good shot at futility. If this fails which you have to say looks more likely than not at this point it’s an F. I have 7.5” with roughly a 35” seasonal average. Huge F.

That depends on how strong the low gets and moving on a good track. If it’s like the GFS/Euro we won’t get much of anything since it will bomb too late or too far east. We really need a NAM like outcome.

Where we are will get blitzed by easterly winds before anything hits the ground which will likely be rain since it’s coming from 45 degree waters.

In terms of nice warm weather finally or another storm that will inevitably fail?

If it’s really a phased bomb in the right location a la NAM, there definitely could be big totals near the city, 10”+ because there would be 1-2”/hr rates easy in the CCB under a heavy band. But if it’s a more sloppy outcome and it phases too late like the GFS or it plows into CT like GGEM it could be just white rain at the end. Still a ton of uncertainty.

UKMET looked pretty good, about the same as last night.

If you’re in the valley locations near the Tappan Zee etc you probably want the more NAM like outcome with the earlier phase and consolidated low because the other models that develop the low later don’t get the dynamics going, and it may snow moderately but be hard to stick especially during the day. But there’ll probably be several inches in Rockland, Westchester etc. If you’re elevated more than a few hundred feet or so 6” is much more likely.

It would be really good if the foreign globals camp stay on a snowier outcome here but this is a very delicate setup that in a snap can go to total garbage. I'd maybe up the percentage to 20% that NYC has significant impacts (I don't count yet another washout as significant). I wouldn't start honking until the models tomorrow 12z are on board with the NAM like solution. Waaaaay too much can go wrong.

That's probably what I'd do at this point. The Catskills should easily see 12-18", hopefully the shadowing/downslope isn't too bad in the valley. NYC/LI/much of NJ I'd still go very conservative until these disaster outcomes like the GFS jump on. This could easily still be a washout with some white rain at the end with the too late/sloppy phase. NAM is just a horrible model that can't be trusted.

I would weigh GFS more than the insane NAM run. Until the globals start showing solutions like that I wouldn't buy it. GFS has the problem we've generally been seeing-phases/bombs way too late after our initial airmass is ruined by the inverted trough and easterly wind, which is where 90% of NYC's precip comes from. By the time the low does bomb, the heavy precip is gone other than some wraparound light snow that likely wouldn't accumulate. The GFS still insisting on that ugly outcome is a concern for sure.

New RGEM is waaaaay more subdued for NYC. Not saying things aren't improving but needs to be a lot of caution before going crazy with a big snowstorm now in the city.NAM can easily yank it right back at 18z and we need to see the other globals at 12z to observe any trends.

PLEASE verify (it won't). But it can be a significant event if we get that consolidated low early as this run showed.