jm1220

If the snow is coming in on 15-20 mph and increasing ESE wind, any snow near the city and coast will be very short lived. The preceding airmass is stale at best for this time of year so even if it comes in like a wall it'll be fighting to get the temp down to 32 for the period of time before warm surface air surges in. Couldn't care less what the Euro or any model shows, it's a story that's happened here again and again. If it comes in showery/broken up, maybe there's a brief snow/sleet mix that goes very fast over to rain and may not even accumulate. If it comes in heavy/like a wall, I can see there being a quick inch or so north of the LIE on Long Island where it's sheltered a bit from the onshore flow and immediate NW suburbs. The advisory type amounts would be around I-84 and NW of I-287. Any snow outside the far NW areas will be gone by the end since surface temps will surge into the 40s and around 50 near the city/coast.

Unfortunately in addition to meh prior airmass it's also coming in with increasing SE winds. The south shore even if aloft is cold enough would probably be less than an hour of snow before the washout if even that. GFS if too warm at the surface shows it 34-36 degrees around the city as the precip comes in. Maybe if it's heavy it can briefly drop to 32 and accumulate but if it comes in as showery/broken up crap I doubt any snow would even accumulate. Up by I-84 it does get down to around freezing for a few hours before the surging warmth aloft shuts their snow down but it could be an advisory event for them.

Oh nooooo way. Release the hounds! There's BITTER cold air on 1/20 above the Arctic Circle??!!

This could finally get the Apps region and NNE significant snow but wouldn’t be surprising if the low keeps trending NW and it just becomes another cutter(s). Without a good 50-50 low and confluence any high pressure will get kicked out as soon as the trough deepens and the low heads north.

We’re due for a stretch of lousy winters and we’re not heading above 30”+ in NYC on average without some serious slams back into reality. Our latitude is what it is but this is among the lousiest of the winters I remember where I have a coating through 1/20. 330 days with no measurable NYC snow is really a bad non winter stretch even for the 1970s-80s. There might be some lucky snow before it gets washed away from either of the upcoming storms in NYC but to me it would just be for the stats rather than any real winter appeal. If it falls for an hour then gets washed away an hour later, doesn’t do me any good. The zookeeper might not even bother measuring it.

Only frozen precip I've had here (small hail) since the early Dec coating to show for this awful "winter".

Torrential downpour here with small hail.

If we’ll be “getting warm” vs now, we’re talking beach days?

Seems like it’s more than just the Nina, or factors that are enhancing the Nina beyond its typical effects. The W Atlantic is way warmer than normal which enhances the SE Ridge and the Indonesia/Australia marine heatwave seems to push the MJO into unfavorable phases for us as well as enhance the Pacific jet. That’s beyond the low end moderate Nina we have which hopefully is deteriorating. These factors seem to be working to enhance one another and have been for 3 winters now since this perma Nina started.

Thing is there has been a consistent theme all “winter” so far that the SE Ridge has been undermodeled at days 7-10 which gives these occasional pipe dream runs that turn to the reality of a cutter or SWFE by day 4-5. Models haven’t been so terrible with the fantasy storms this year which probably points to the Pacific also being so bad but it goes to show what kind of major change we need to make something happen this year. The PNA ridge axis is too far west on the models so far for the late Jan threats in addition to the SE ridge issue, so very likely they’ll end up the exact same as the other storms this winter except they may be better way inland and in NNE. There may be some help from the NAO eventually but so far doesn’t look to be enough to stop the overwhelmingly favorable setup for cutters.

Rinse and repeat literally. Without significant pattern changes this will just keep happening. We need blocking and a 50-50 low NE of us, and the Pacific to cooperate.

SWFE type events mostly trend north and we have the almost always stronger than expected 7 days out SE Ridge to help that happen so if we’re going into a gradient/SWFE pattern it’ll be great for much of New England and upstate NY I-90 and north with colder rain for most of us. I’m mostly tuning out on this “winter” until the pattern meaningfully changes. If this west based -NAO does form along with a window of +PNA we can have a turnaround period, if not we keep suffering.

Yyyyyyep. That’s why I’m happy it’s at least not pointlessly cold. If snow isn’t happening at least it’s tolerable outside. Cutters to frigid to cutters is the worst.

Any winter where we have a raging zonal Pacific jet will be a failure for us. The whole continent is flooded with maritime air, it encourages the SE Ridge and any threat is ruined because it will want to cut way west of us. We need major changes- for the PV to reestablish on our side of the pole, the PNA to amplify and some blocking to appear which would hopefully make a dent in the corresponding raging SE Ridge. I see some hope in the longer range but nothing I would jump on. Quite likely Jan is ruined and now we’re hoping for Feb to improve. Feb in a Nina is usually horrible in the East (although I know what’s going on resembles a Nino in some ways).

FYP

SWFE events rarely produce for people near the coast here. We need blocking or something to force redevelopment and we all see how the SE Ridge is usually under modeled. Doesn’t do us much good to start a pattern where I-90 Boston to Buffalo starts getting nailed but at least our rain is colder after an hour of slush.

The 222hr/282hr/312hr metro area is having a blockbuster winter this year. My future virtual ruler and future virtual snowblower are all set!

If you mean CA yes. If you mean the NW like Montana and Wyoming, just about the only thing as consistent as our warm winters are now are their cold/snowy winters. The perma Nina has been very kind to them.

I wish I could move to hr222. Looks like an awesome place.

Maybe 1850 is a better example but still, climate change isn't directly causing this warm/awful stretch. It's enhancing it for sure, and more research needs to be done on these massive marine heatwaves and how they lead to long term repeating pattern shifts like these. The very warm W Pacific is leading to this insane repeating Pacific jet pattern for example and acting as an enhancer to this now 3 year Nina. The very warm offshore waters here are enhancing the SE Ridge.

Climate change is a “plus” on top of this awful stretch this winter but if it was 1750 this pattern would still probably mean no snow. Zonal raging Pacific jet is never good for us.

97-98 would’ve been a very good winter with just a little more cold air. The El Niño was so powerful that it flooded N America with warm air. There were some good benchmark storms that were ruined because of Pacific air.

Boston is up to 1.2" on the season. Pathetic but they're over 1".

That storm by far is what got me into weather. I was just amazed at what was happening from start to finish.

We need at least some access to non-Pacific garbage air. If we had a low rapidly deepening SE of us it could do it, as the crashing heights could make it cold enough to snow everywhere. But this 200-hr storm even if it does go SE of us, cuts off the low so soon that it just becomes engulfed in maritime air around it. Or it could go the way of the rest of the Nina crap so far this winter and cut to the lakes. Either way isn't good for most of us. Maybe the forever cut off low SE of us could be okay for NW areas.