jm1220

Fine by me. I’d want it crazy tucked at this point. It’s always amped at the end of the run.

Short range models do have snow mixing in for a while in N Nassau and much of NYC. In the city I doubt anything sticks but maybe away from the heat island if it can cool to near freezing. I think it’ll be a lot of white rain but it’s good that it’s falling at night. Temp here is still 40 so a ways to go.

And little cabin's roof might collapse when it has 4" of rain soak into it.

The PNA was so horrible that the trough dove into CA and brought storms in. Where the trough is also matters. Other Nina’s have the trough inland over the West, this one was well placed to funnel moisture into CA. The storms were also cold so the snowpack built up. El Niño features the Pineapple Express type storms like today’s which pile up less snow but bring a ton of rain.

The upper low position funneled the precip/snow into SNE and dry slotted most of us. We need the upper low further south to avoid that outcome. I don’t remember 4/1/97 at all, probably for the best. Would’ve been infuriating.

If there is a closed 500mb low there is a good feed of moisture back to the west up to the point the flow backs around to northerly behind the closed low. If the upper air low supports transporting moisture west, it’ll do so. If there’s an open wave trough and it’s too progressive, that doesn’t happen. Jan 1996, 2016, Feb 2003 etc were Gulf origin lows with a huge moisture feed ahead of those lows into a dome of cold air that the moisture overran. That helped create the huge area of snow and it’s another reason you want a large high pressure area for the low to head into. The massive overrunning surface creates a large area of heavy snow.

If snow is really falling that hard it would cool down to 32-33. The air would latently cool quickly from the melting flakes.

Anyone around NYC needs the strong dynamics to work out for there to be any real snow at all. If what hits us is anything less than heavy it’ll likely be rain or white rain. The low has to bomb and heights crash in the right spot. People inland and with elevation have more wiggle room with a more marginal setup.

I could see maybe a Snowicane 2/25/10 scenario happen if the capture/fling north happens in a good spot. Berkshires to the Catskills are probably the prime zone at this point.

The December rule is usually a good one especially in a Nina when we need to do well early. When there’s not at least a half decent Dec event, the rest of the winter almost always sucks. We had the Dec 16, 2020 significant event, Jan 4, 2018 major event etc before those seasons overall were successful. In a Nina we need to score early. Too early to tell for sure about what’ll happen with this Mon into Tue event but I’m not encouraged at least for most of us. We need to draw a flush.

That’s too far east. It’s also captured and tugged N too late, bombs too late because of the issues with the PNA and southern stream gets out too far ahead. We need the dynamics and height falls to happen earlier and further west. We don’t have preexisting cold air to rely on so the dynamics will have to do it. That’s a great run for Boston not us. We get light to at times heavier rain from that look, maybe wraparound snow at the end from the bombed upper low that happens too late. I’m glad to be proven wrong but so much has to go right for us near the coast to do well from this. We need it to bomb early but not so early it flings the low north across our backyard, and in a way that dynamics are maxed.

Yeah-crazy. I guess we keep watching.

We'll see. Trend looks pretty strongly west today. If that continues into tomorrow I think it's pretty clear where this is heading.

Horrendous. 3/14/17 all over again but even warmer this time so maybe we get a snow shower at the end while I-84 gets two feet. Worst winter ever.

This one’s written off for the city and coast. No cold air source and SE flow out ahead of the system to keep it warm as precip advances. Maybe some white rain as it leaves. Chalk up another fail.

If the heights crash to the west as the low bombs, it should be cold enough as long as the low tracks 75 miles or so to your east. A closed upper low would also really crank the CCB west of the low. I’m more concerned about a hugger and heavy snow in the mountains vs a miss.

Mar 2001 just developed too late for most of us. It did just fine east of the William Floyd and would’ve up to NYC had it bombed just 75 miles further SW. That’s why miller B events are always nail biters for us.

We don’t have an established cold air source which is always a problem but as the calendar gets later becomes more of a problem. Sat AM’s event will likely fail for us for that reason and this next one may too if it doesn’t bomb out and bring cold air in somehow.

80s and 90s in April aren’t normal lol. 60s and sunny is perfect. Just no maritime crap for days with fog. But we all know that’ll come in spades after the constant winter fails.

4 inches of slop that is still there at the end is better than the 4 inches on 3/14/07 that washed away in 2 hours. I’d rather have rain to snow than other way around. Can’t write this off here yet but this could be an epic week for the Catskills. I’m resigned to this winter ending in one more giant fail so I’m fine with it. Bring on spring. The flowers already blooming are raring to go.

In the city I doubt it unless it comes down heavy for a couple/few hours. Long Island away from the shore and heat island could benefit as well as NJ. And obviously S CT.

That's exactly what we would need-heavy rates and dynamics to bring the cold air to the surface. Light/paltry crap like NAM/RGEM would mean cold rain/white rain unless you're inland and elevated.

Yeah, looks like a lot of white rain near the city and east. Oh well.

We did great here in March 2018. 3/13 missed east for the most part and 3/7 was mostly NW, but 3/21 was a crushing. With minor adjustments the other two would've been too. And on 4/2 most of us had 6".

We really just have these seasons now where we totally flop like this or we go on few week bonanza runs like most recently Feb 2021. Last winter at least for me was about average but it was mostly from two storms in January. Very rare that we get 2-4 or 3-6" type events. We of course mostly got that on 2/28 but nothing else.