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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Regardless, I don't think brown lawns will be a thing anymore a week from now.
  2. jm1220
    If we start to see a trend to more progressive with the low it's where we might be in trouble since the next trough can come in and grab it. The solutions that bury it under the trough in the southeast leave us drier.
  3. jm1220
    Watching the stuff approaching SW Nassau-might not be done yet for many.
  4. jm1220
    Smithtown/Hauppauge areas look like they got nailed, up to 2.5”. Definitely needed there since they haven’t been as lucky with the rain IMBY and further west.
  5. jm1220
    We lucked out with the outflow boundaries from the earlier storms west of us sparking new storms over us.
  6. jm1220
    Up to about 1.3” so far today.
  7. jm1220
    Downpouring, constant thunder rumbles.
  8. jm1220
    Tropical downpours already and this heavy line about to move in.
  9. jm1220
    Outflow boundary coming onto LI now, let's see if something can fire up.
  10. jm1220
    I'm in the higher elevated area just east of Rt 110 so uit usually doesn't get quite as hot here. But either way-disgusting.
  11. jm1220
    For a mean that’s quite impressive. But still way too early to count on it up here. Hopefully there’s a PRE/stalled front situation with rain for most or all regardless.
  12. jm1220
    Yep already 88 here. The heat pit in Commack east of me is already in the low 90s.
  13. jm1220
    Our real chance east of Queens will be when some kind of a front can focus the storms and push them east before the marine air can kill them off. That might be on Monday.
  14. jm1220
    The heaviest rain would be where a front can set up west of the storm to focus the tropical moisture. Historically 90% of the time it happens in NJ/Hudson Valley. But a week away really anything can happen-could still get booted out.
  15. jm1220
    About 0.15". Been lucky many other times though so I'm not complaining.
  16. jm1220
    Light to maybe mod rain.
  17. jm1220
    Line breaking up on cue as it hits the marine influenced air. We’ll see how much can survive east of Queens.
  18. jm1220
    Ambrose Jet getting started-JFK gusting to near 30. Too late though since heat index hit 100. Plenty of time though to kill any storms coming in from NJ.
  19. jm1220
    91/77/105. Atrocious.
  20. jm1220
    88 here, feels disgusting.
  21. jm1220
    Up to 93.
  22. jm1220
    Mid 90s in central Nassau. 90 here.
  23. jm1220
    Up here the evenings have been great on these Ambrose Jet days. Nice breeze and temps despite still feeling humid. On the beaches though I’m sure it’s been sandblasting windy which is no fun.
  24. jm1220
    Once again today S wind gusts to near 40 at JFK. Wow.
  25. jm1220
    “Nino” and “Nina” at least traditionally defined are becoming less relevant since about 5 years ago when we switched to this Western Pacific on fire regime, which keeps the elements of Nina in place during the winter regardless of the official regime, since Nina patterns are as much about the W Pacific condition as much as the E Pacific. It keeps a rampaging Pacific jet going and as a result either very brief or nonexistent cold coming far south from Canada, and favorable tracks for storms unable to get established-for a good nor’easter here that can snow you need the pattern to relax at least a bit and the SE Ridge (which has also been rampaging) to be present but muted enough to not force an inland track. 2020-21 did get the MJO out of the unfavorable phases enough to allow windows for more favorable outcomes here but it’s been the rarity since this new W PAC regime started. N New England down to I-90 and the Midwest do just fine in these patterns that promote cutters and with a Nina once again developing officially I’d be excited/optimistic if I lived in Michigan too. Unfortunately here looks very much like another stinker. Our one hope is the high ACE and maybe the Nina can be more East based. I never thought though that NYC with a 30” snow average like we came close to with the new 91-20 averages was sustainable-we had to pay the piper sooner or later. Until the W PAC cools down so this ridiculous Pacific jet slows down we’re very likely screwed where I am and on south. And probably most near I-80 and south.
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