jm1220

We do need the rain here. As usual we got blanked near and east of the city from the event over the weekend that favored NJ.

It’s actually “easier” to heat up at this time of the year before the trees fully leaf out. Less shade and less humidity from transpiration. Add in the westerly flow here vs so many SW or S flow driven heat events in the summer and not too surprising this heat overperformed. Models also underplay temps so often this time of year because they don’t factor the lack of transpiration (unless recent upgrades took this into consideration more).

Wow-Williamsport, PA too. Although it wouldn’t be too surprising with so many other places reaching 90. It’s another spot that roasts on these westerly flow downslope days especially early in the season before full leaf out.

Weather station in Woodbury hit 90. Hempstead 89. Sea breeze is pushing inland (Amityville down to 75) so maybe we have 1-2 more degrees to rise before that makes it to the north shore. Most stations around here are 86-88.

86 now. I wouldn’t be too upset if that sea breeze made it here today. Torching.

Only around 60 on the barrier islands. Low to mid 60s in Long Beach. Let’s see today how fast that sea breeze boundary can progress inland. World of difference from here where it’s 84. Huge split between Long Beach where it’s 62-63 and Oceanside/Baldwin where it’s 82-83. That’s a 10-15 minute drive.

80 now. Wonder if we can make another push for 90 or if the southerly flow kiboshes it.

The high in Long Beach might’ve made it to 75 today before the S wind really kicked in. Takes a really strong W flow this time of year to keep the seabreeze away. I don’t miss spring down there with the daily Ambrose Jet one second.

86 now.

Upper 80s already in central Nassau and near Commack. Some of us even east of the city probably get their first 90 today. 84 here.

About as amazing as it gets. Heat during the summer now almost always comes on southerly flow events and much more likely to be 95 with 75 dew point vs over 100. We need the west winds like today that downslope. Way too often the ridge and heat overshoot us into NNE and even Canada these days.

82 here.

Still 65 degrees here at 9:40pm. Looks pretty likely we hit 80 tomorrow and maybe 85 Thu-Fri. Still feels summer like now.

You read that sounding on top and it’s almost impossible not to start laughing. You have to go up to 650mb before it’s as cold again as the surface.

Since we have a westerly flow later in the week and not S, it can be an overperformer. We roast when we get these westerly downslope air masses.

Quick recovery today, up to 62 now. Very likely we hit 80 later in the week.

Autumn that had a few random cold days thrown in, now into Spring.

“Cool” is a relative term. We have fewer upper 90s to 100s heat waves recently but we have more slightly less hot days with more humidity. We end up on the south side of these ridges which send the worst actual heat over us to the north and we have very humid southerly flow like FL would receive. We’ll see how this summer behaves.

Wind finally turning S along the sound, temps climbing through the 60s. 78 here-summer like. South barrier islands stuck in the 50s.

75 here, 55 on the Sound shore a few miles away. Persistent NE breeze there.

We should save up our weenie tears in case we probably develop a summer drought.

To get to 90 hopefully there can be a W or WNW downslope day to really max the heat potential without too much humidity capping it. We really heat up in the summer on those kind of days vs the much more frequent S flow these days that pump up the humidity. We also have many more patterns now with the ridge peaking well north of us which encourages the S and even SE flow around the south side of the high.

I would think with this long lived switch we’re heading back to the decadal -PDO we had in the 1960s-80s if not mistaken. Hopefully some years can have enough of a Nino influence to break that.

What we need to look for here are whether highs try to develop to our NE and/or deep troughs. If we see troughs forming over the Maritimes with a strong high in Quebec, it will try to force the back door fronts in. When those aren’t in place it will torch here like you said since the -PNA will definitely keep it warm to our south.

Until that cold area off the West Coast to Alaska warms up, and the warm area around Australia to Indonesia cools down, odds are against us having a cold/snowy winter. Simple as that, unless the El Nino can completely overwhelm those. I'm not sure if this is a decadal PDO/IOD trend we have to deal with now or something more temporary, but those show no signs of changing, and they'll push a Nina like state as long as they stay that way. Hopefully the Nino can become mod to strong and turn Modoki, to at least take the edge off that awfulness. As for today, gorgeous and hopefully next week will feature more of it. Tomorrow will suck but should be short lived at least. Nothing worse than patterns like last spring with days and days of endless ENE onshore garbage.