jm1220

Holy.... That much might be a candidate for the bottom of that snow to turn into those exotic ice forms you make in a lab under extreme pressures lol. Just over 3" where I am, breathing a bit of sigh of relief that the sleet line probably stopped and is retreating in the heavier echos.

Good thing the heavy echos are doing their thing and looks like the sleet line retreats a bit under them.

I have a little over 3" eyeballing. Given what's to come I think we end over 5 and have a shot at 6. Large evergreen tree behind my back deck is sagging a little.

Sleet line is pinned in the southern half of NYC and barrier islands for now.

Dual pol says sleet may be trying to get into Manhattan. Brooklyn, SW Queens and Staten Island are sleet or rain. Also hugging the south shore of Nassau but I'd bet everything it's raining in Long Beach right now. Long Beach boardwalk just looks wet right now on webcams. What a joke.

Just had a nice burst. Back down to light but some good echos coming in. Temp 32.

Light snow but hopefully about to pick up again, 31. I have probably 2.5".

Close call

Latest HRRR says the rest of it's a really close call for NYC and LI. The immediate south shore and southern half of NYC is probably done with accums, looks like the warm nose at 750-800mb is here and also temps are above freezing. Soundings over MBY show it getting close but not quite to sleet. DIX radar shows the sleet line maybe settling just S of I-78. But there's still a fair amount of precip to go so this is where the big N Shore/S Shore difference starts. Hopefully not and the sleet line can settle south a little. But unfortuately places like Edison/New Brunswick/Staten Island and southernmost Nassau are probably done (where it even started in the first place. Long Beach I don't think ever got below 34 so it may never have even accumulated ).

Light snow continuing here. The splotchy/shredded precip is what I was concerned about in terms of allowing warming to take over. However when precip picks back up it'll probably go back to snow especially north of I-78. That's always been the dividing line roughly between where there might be an inch of slush or so vs more meaningful.

Dry slot trying to fill in and another batch coming from the city. Awesome!

About 2" here. Mod to heavy before the lull comes in.

Moderate to heavy again.

With the heavier steady precip you should go back to snow. Looks on dual pol like the sleet is associated with lighter precip. In Central PA the snow is crashing south pretty well. Already close to 2" where I am. This dry slot sucks and will allow the warm air to advance somewhat but hopefully when it gets heavy again it mixes out.

Also down to 31 now.

I’m close to that here. It was absolutely dumping before. Tapering off a little but looks like one more burst before whatever lull moves in.

Hopefully this lull fills in a little. That’ll allow warm air to advance if it doesn’t.

In Central PA it looks like snow is crashing south in the heavy precip on the dual pol. It’ll be close especially for I-78 and the south shore, maybe up here and the rest of the city. Models do show the warm nose coming in around 6-7z. We’ll see. Hopefully the coastal low starts doing work.

Dumping here now. Hopefully there's not too much of a lull coming from PA.

Sidewalk/street slushy, snow definitely getting heavier. Close to 1/2” on colder surfaces I’d say.

I use RadarScope which is also good for dual pol.

And just think if you turned it upside down you’d already have 14”.

Coming down at a better clip, coating on colder surfaces, not sticking to pavement yet.

The wild card for the south shore is the coastal low hopefully turning winds around to ENE which is a less warm direction (though still not great) and the warm air aloft and surface being stopped. Models other than the NAM don't really get enough warm air north of Sunrise Highway for sleet to be a big deal. Not sure about "easily" but I'll take whatever I can get in this worst winter ever (which if I get 4-5" won't be worst ever but still in the bottom 5 lol).

That heavier area of precip in W PA will I think make or break it here. If that can stay heavier and be in the form of snow we can make it to 4 or 5", if it's sleet or lightens up we get 2 or 3". And the barrier islands/south shore may not get cold enough to really accumulate at all. Whatever we end up getting, better late than never.