jm1220

I would bet big that sleet will mix in sooner than the GFS has especially I-84 and south and that ratios will be lower than 10-1 so I would use the Kuchera map if anything. Models last night were showing a warm push at 750mb or so which makes sense since winds are southerly at that level. NAM is almost always closer to correct than the GFS at finding the warm layer. But there’ll definitely be areas with some elevation (over 1000’) that get crushed with this. The NAM getting colder is a good sign.

You can just about mail in a cold winter forecast for the PAC NW and N Plains these days. And as far as the forecast goes that doesn’t look to be changing.

RGEM is better but becoming clear you need to be well NW, probably NW of I-84 and with some elevation to see a good event from this. The strong southerly flow at mid levels and easterly flow at the surface-not a good combo.

The flow at 700 and 850 is from the south so not a surprise. There might be a nasty area of icing where temps aloft get above freezing but cold air lingers at the surface. NAM might be a little too warm at mid levels but it’ll tend to be closer to the truth than other models without the warm layer aloft.

N Catskills too. Would be great to be at Hunter Mountain for this.

Not so much a concern for this subforum but there could be some nasty icing in central PA down into VA if the mid level cold is scoured early and surface cold can hang on with the heavy onset of precip. There's a pretty strong high over Quebec that will be leaving but enough to have surface CAD in time for the precip.

Maybe it's the 84hr NAM doing 84hr NAM things. But the way wrapped up primary low is bringing mid level warm air with it unless the coastal low can take over early. The 700/850 lows around the coastal aren't developing until very late which could help lock cold air in. In that sense this really will be more like a SWFE where you want the front end thump.

If you're inland sure, there would be plenty of snow on the GFS 12z. But the moisture is coming in on strong ENE flow still. This is the panel at hr93. That would torch anyone near the coast regardless of what's going on at 850mb. Temps during this panel are in the 40s in NYC. For those not well inland, we need the transfer to happen sooner and the low to track ENE sooner so the wind can change direction.

Any time we have a strong E or ENE flow this time of the year, or pretty much any time of the year the coast will have problems. Water is still probably in the upper 40s. As others are saying this late week storm won’t be a big deal for anyone near the city and coast as long as the surface low tracks over Delaware Bay. Catskills/Poconos and well north in the Hudson Valley/Berkshires will do way better. Hopefully the rest of us get a break and the low can transfer sooner/further south under the block.

Nice maybe half inch on the ground here. Looks very wintery with the snow stuck on trees.

Light all snow, colder surfaces like car tops/grass are getting slushy. I'm on the board!

Light rain/mangled flakes/sleet mix.

If we could get some consistent heavier precip it would bring down cold air and switch to snow. Alas...

Some mangled flakes mixing in Woodbury.

Colder rain for us. Yippee

Coincided with hostile NAO and AO I think, but again others with better data/insight can elaborate. 97-98 which I remember was just overwhelmed by the Nino and too warm. A few degrees cooler and it would've been a very nice winter since there were plenty of coastal storms. Interior areas did pretty well. I'd rather have the Ninos because often they're the winters that have the massive STJ/Pacific moisture laden blizzards like Jan 2016, PDII in 2003, Feb 1983. The Mar 1993 Superstorm was probably helped by the Nino that year too (though it was a weak Nino). The soul crushing 2/6/10 Nino blizzard just missed us but we still did well that winter.

Wouldn't say they're more common than El Ninos, it seemed like in the 80s and 90s until the major Nina in 98-99, El Nino was a lot more common and we also had the super 82-83 and 97-98 Ninos. Maybe it's a cyclical pattern like the AMO, I'm sure others with more data/expertise can elaborate. But part of it is also where these marine heatwaves set up. When they set up near Indonesia/Australia, they can supercharge any Nina pattern (what drives the Nina isn't just the cool E Pac waters, it's the warm water in the W Pacific) and the hostile MJO phases in winter. That's what killed us in 18-19 and 19-20. So these different factors sometimes amplify and interfere with one another, making older analogs tougher to use. Climate change likely plays a role in these crazy marine heatwaves we're seeing, and they definitely have a huge impact since the amount of heat they transfer to the atmosphere drives the downstream patterns. One interesting more local factor might be what happens as the Greenland ice sheet keeps melting. That's created a cold water pool near Greenland from the melted ice, which might help cause more +NAO patterns. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Yep that would be frigid. Would be nice to get a large snow event then not have to see it all melted in 3 days.

There’s never been an era I can think of where it’s been “easy” to get a Boston to DC big snowstorm. You have the very rare events like PDII in 2003, Blizzard of 1996 along with smaller 6-12” type events like that but there are usually problems with the storm type or overall setup to cause it to favor the Mid Atlantic, New England or neither. If there’s anything I can think of to help, it’s that we have to get this Nina pattern gone which we’ve been stuck with the last several winters. El Niño loaded moist patterns with some blocking are ideal.

My rain will be colder. Woo hoo.

Wow that was Toms River? 12” from 1/29 in Long Beach, 14-15” where I live now. Definitely noticeable jackpot area in SW Suffolk and further east though. Deer Park must’ve had 20”.

To be fair I can’t think of any mets who were calling for this Dec to be very cold and snowy. Unless you’re talking about JB and DT who I just ignore these days.

You have the rare 12/16/20 or 3/14/17 storms that are good there but by and large it’s 1-3 or 2-4” type events. What clippers we still have dry up many times before getting there, lake effect does happen but is very rare when it’s more than a coating, SWFE events usually end up sleet/ZR fests there, coastal storms are too far east etc. They need the bigger miller A events like you said to make it to normal, and now we have way more miller B type storms.

State College is one of the most frustrating places to live for winter weather and their snow average has been decreasing fast over the past 15 years especially since so many storms now blow up on the coast. They every now and again get a bigger 8-12” type storm but generally it’s a few inch Nicole and dimes until they get to 35-45” per year.

The weather in our part of the globe moves from west to east, so ultimately the Pacific drives the outcomes. There are ways the Atlantic can mess things up with a big +NAO or force the pattern to slow down and amplify to give us our bigger snow events, but if we’re drowning in Pacific puke in the never ending assembly line, it doesn’t turn out well.