jm1220

Also down to 31 now.

I’m close to that here. It was absolutely dumping before. Tapering off a little but looks like one more burst before whatever lull moves in.

Hopefully this lull fills in a little. That’ll allow warm air to advance if it doesn’t.

In Central PA it looks like snow is crashing south in the heavy precip on the dual pol. It’ll be close especially for I-78 and the south shore, maybe up here and the rest of the city. Models do show the warm nose coming in around 6-7z. We’ll see. Hopefully the coastal low starts doing work.

Dumping here now. Hopefully there's not too much of a lull coming from PA.

Sidewalk/street slushy, snow definitely getting heavier. Close to 1/2” on colder surfaces I’d say.

I use RadarScope which is also good for dual pol.

And just think if you turned it upside down you’d already have 14”.

Coming down at a better clip, coating on colder surfaces, not sticking to pavement yet.

The wild card for the south shore is the coastal low hopefully turning winds around to ENE which is a less warm direction (though still not great) and the warm air aloft and surface being stopped. Models other than the NAM don't really get enough warm air north of Sunrise Highway for sleet to be a big deal. Not sure about "easily" but I'll take whatever I can get in this worst winter ever (which if I get 4-5" won't be worst ever but still in the bottom 5 lol).

That heavier area of precip in W PA will I think make or break it here. If that can stay heavier and be in the form of snow we can make it to 4 or 5", if it's sleet or lightens up we get 2 or 3". And the barrier islands/south shore may not get cold enough to really accumulate at all. Whatever we end up getting, better late than never.

If you’re in Seaford hopefully you drop another couple degrees when the heavier snow gets in. That should enable it to stick at least on grass. Otherwise we’re seeing the issue the models picked up on-Long Beach is still 37-38 and will be lucky to get an inch most likely. Glad I’m not there for this. Temp here down to 33.

Light rimed snow grains and some mangled flakes. Colder surfaces/grass starting to accumulate. Temp 34.

Where are you located? I assume not Jacksonville?

Flakes here.

Sleet line on dual-pol looks to be just S of Reading/Pottstown PA. Hopefully Allentown gets pounded pretty good, that's the test case for me for what NYC/most of LI can expect.

It's probably some ensemble forecast. And no that's not great forecasting. I still remember the debacle that happened when Channel 4 showed 26" of snow from the NAM in Central Park right before Nemo 2/8/13. People freaked out for the 11" it ended up being-significant but not crippling. My guesses for totals: Central Park 2.5" JFK 1.5" LGA: 3" Long Beach: 1" EWR: 3" New Brunswick: 1.5" Morristown: 5.5" Middletown NY: 7" Newburgh: 5.5" Danbury: 6.5" New Haven: 6" Huntington (IMBY): 4" Islip: 3.5" RIverhead: 3" Places I have 3-4" on LI and Newark etc might easily be only 2" or less if we see sleet crashing in, breaks in the precip etc. Tough call.

35 here. Hopefully first flakes soon.

Models don't really have a warm surface push coming in beyond maybe the very immediate coast since the ESE winds aren't especially strong and the water temps are about as cold as they get for the year. It'll be interesting to see how cold the south shore gets. Latest HRRR (admittedly might be a little too cold) has my backyard at 32-33 by 6z but Captree at 36. That'll make a big difference in terms of getting the snow to accumulate and keeping away any rain mix. Mid level warmth is a different story and we need the coastal low to take over as soon as possible so the mid level warm push stops and the surface winds veer to more ENE.

Down to 36 here.

Your area will be a good test case. If the ABE area goes to sleet fast or can't accumulate, NYC and LI won't either most likely. NAM is concerning but hopefully a bit too warm.

Hopefully. Depends on how heavy the snow comes in and can stay, and how much the warm easterly winds warm up the surface. Usual caveats being on the south shore. If we see large breaks in the snow, that’s where the mid level warmth will also have an easier time getting in.

If it’s moderate or better it will accumulate. Temps will wetbulb down and it will be dark.

HRRR still looks good away from the immediate beaches. Hopefully by now that’s meaningful.

We should start dropping off soon with the sun going down and with any kind of decent precip rate we’ll wetbulb down. Real question is if coastal areas can get down to near freezing too.