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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Until mid spring models usually under forecast warm spells like these. Warm down sloping winds and lack of evapotranspiration from leafed out trees (unless models have been upgraded to account for this). In this case the much warmer than average waters probably help quite a bit.
  2. jm1220
    52 at Captree. Jan 4th sea breeze front lol.
  3. jm1220
    So glad we have that to look forward to.
  4. jm1220
    No offense but I would take what Bluewave says over likely yet another 10 day model mirage. He’s explained over and over why these mirages happen and we know how they turn out.
  5. jm1220
    Models failed on the overrunning shooting north of us. Pouring here too.
  6. jm1220
    I don’t remember that storm but it would’ve been infuriating for NYC/LI. The area was essentially stuck in a dry slot while it dumped over SNE and the W suburbs into the Poconos. It wasn’t just urban heating. I’d rather have a torching cutter than that again.
  7. jm1220
    Awesome. If it won’t snow I’m fine with more days like today. Garbage wasted cold is the worst.
  8. jm1220
    Gorgeous afternoon-61.
  9. jm1220
    I have no idea if winter will be a complete fail or lousy (I’m personally getting more pessimistic since I have a coating to show for a La Nina December which we want to at least be decent if we want a snowy Nina winter), but we’re due for payback for our stretch of big winters since 2000. No question about that.
  10. jm1220
    Both my mother's and my car doors were frozen shut. So... yeah that was fun for 2 days.
  11. jm1220
    On WSW winds no obviously (maybe a tiny area near Orient Point) but the sound does have an effect on snowstorms here. The way probably 2-4” at least was added on parts of LI in the 1/29 event last winter was the NE flow off LI Sound that upsloped a tiny bit and friction over the island caused more lift. That went on for a few hours and definitely enhanced the snow as the best synoptic lift shifted east to the Boston area/SE Mass.
  12. jm1220
    In Long Beach at least the winds behind the front have been much more impressive. Winds ahead of the front were the 40-50 mph run of the mill variety. We definitely had some over 50 gusts behind the front. Down to 9 here. NAM was right with its colder idea.
  13. jm1220
    Flurries in Long Beach.
  14. jm1220
    At least where I was this morning it was slightly lower than Irene, but also I took the pictures when the tide was already starting to go back out. Island Park was hit very hard too, several water rescues at least there. The flash freeze probably won't be happening for many, the westerly winds helped downslope and dry up the precip behind the front, and we've had sun/wind drying the roads. W or SW flow is a very inefficient way to get cold air here.
  15. jm1220
    Winds definitely kicking up again behind the front here.
  16. jm1220
    Wasn’t that impressive here in Long Beach. Brief heavy shower and wind actually died down lol.
  17. jm1220
    Would be the fitting finale here after the chaos this morning. Hopefully it doesn’t get downsloped to death trying to get into NYC.
  18. jm1220
    Sun peeking out now ahead of the squall line.
  19. jm1220
    The wind here is run of the mill for a coastal storm, maybe one or two gusts to 50 mph. We’ll see what this squall line does with the cold front. Maybe the winds over the ocean are stronger and there was enough of a SE fetch to pile the water in?
  20. jm1220
    New moon. Really couldn't be any better/worse timed.
  21. jm1220
    Wasn’t the only model that went big with rain totals, RGEM was 2-3” for several runs. I’ll be lucky to make it to 1” here.
  22. jm1220
    Much of central PA got a nice event for once today as well as W MD/WV. Up to 6” in spots. A lot of it will probably be gone by the time the cold gets there but a nice stat padder and hopefully white Christmas.
  23. jm1220
    The upper low is taking forever to close off and it’s happening further NE than expected a few days ago. The only place snow amounts are a big deal are the lake effect belts. It’ll probably snow more in central PA today than Chicago.
  24. jm1220
    Highly doubtful. Anything behind the cold front would get downsloped to death reaching us on the westerly winds. Wouldn't trust the clown maps.
  25. jm1220
    Cutters to frigid to cutters are the worst. I'd rather it be mild if I know it won't be snowing.
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