jm1220
-
Posts
24,726 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by jm1220
-
Could be okay here for a couple hours but as I said if it’s sleet to rain I’d rather it just not happen. You’re right about the Hudson Valley but so far if you’re I-84 and N it’s been looking good. However in these the sleet always makes it further north than expected at this point especially if we’re still dealing with the strong primary driving mid level warmth in.
-
We've had a winter full of storms like these that cut for the lakes. Makes perfect sense. The one difference here is that there's half decent confluence/blocking around, but if it's wilting away as it approaches it does us zero good. But it does Boston plenty of good since they have much more wiggle room due to the high placement and preceding blocking, and their climo does the rest with their much better outcomes in miller B situations and plenty of decent SWFE outcomes too. Unless there's a huge wrinkle they're golden for a warning event, and that's on the low end. Bottom line is as I've said we need this Nina to be gone. We technically have a chance at this where we are but my bet would be for another garbage outcome like the rest unless you're N and especially NE of the city a good 50+ miles.
-
Perfect kick in the teeth run. Would be absolutely fitting for the bookend to be 50 miles NE of me or so getting buried while I sleet to rain.
-
If this winter’s not an F I can’t think of one that possibly could be. Flowers shooting up in mid February and bugs everywhere sitting on generously 1.5” for the season and no real threat to speak of (I don’t consider 2/28 a real threat yet where I am unless by some miracle it trends away from being another crap SWFE). Whatever takes this horse behind the barn and puts it out of its misery sooner, the better. GTFO “Winter” 22-23.
-
I also can’t count how many times the models incorrectly at this stage showed a big thump of snow SE of a closed 700/850 low when in reality it’s maybe an hour of good snow before sleet then rain because they don’t see the fast mid level warming. If the trend is toward a longer lasting and north primary, odds for those of us outside well N areas are about done for anything more than a quick thump that quickly washes away.
-
Can’t think of a time that setup has ever worked for us-a well defined primary making it into Canada. If it trends into a run of the mill SWFE I’ll take a hard pass.
-
I’ll have to look into some of the data and Bluewave would know much better, but it took near record blocking IIRC to get the 2/1/21 Miller B to work out for NYC. It really takes some doing/luck for these redevelopers to work out for most of us. They certainly can but like I said it’s like drawing an inside straight. If the blocking really will be significant we have a chance. If it starts to wilt as the storm approaches we’re screwed.
-
I’d consider 10” to be a miracle at this point. Even for my backyard that averages about 35”. I have just over 1” so far lol. We’re almost in March and we just can’t expect much despite the bonanzas like March 2018.
-
Boston is having a lousy winter but not completely shut out like we are and they have as good a chance as anyone with this upcoming setup-unless something seriously goes wrong with this early next week storm they’re in for at least a solid warning event. Nina winters in general work out just fine for most of New England and are on balance probably better than El Niño especially stronger Ninos because SWFE events which Nina’s send trains of work out way better there. 07-08 was a great New England winter but totally sucked in NYC for that reason. At this point I couldn’t care less about 1-3” to rain that washes it away 2 hours later. If that’s what we get I’d be annoyed if anything since we wouldn’t get the #1 least snowy winter spot. I’d be at least rooting on some kind of record to end this utter disaster.
-
I’m most interested in seeing that trend with the confluence than anything else. It’s the only way those of us SW of I-84 in CT have a real shot at this. And the confluence needs to stay in place and not scoot out as the low approaches.
-
There's a way this one COULD work out for people beyond CT and the far N folks but it would take an inside straight or flush. Many more ways for Syracuse to Boston to get it to work. That simple when we're sweating a SWFE/strong Lakes low somehow transferring over in time. We really need this Nina garbage which keeps promoting these setups to GTFO.
-
In Boston and I-90 corridor which get plenty from SWFE type systems absolutely, and then the buried scenario happens when they have much more time than us for the miller B to crush them. For even the relative table scraps in NYC scenario to work out, the trends for confluence need to get better. If in the next 48 hours we don't see more improvement I'm closing this one out (models so far look about hold-serve, GFS a little worse). Remember also that if anything these SWFE type events trend warmer at the end because models usually don't pick up the mid level warmth until the end. We don't want this to still be a SWFE when it gets here.
-
The 3k NAM has over 150 inches of snow in some of the mountains NE of LA from the upslope conveyor coming in. At 60hr which is the end of the run the heavy rain is still coming in too. That's overdone but some of the snow totals in those mountains will be obscene with the low snow levels and due SSW upslope flow.
-
I wouldn’t get excited until we’re within 96 hours and probably 72 hours. Any Miller B setup for NYC is very fragile. Could definitely work out but we need strong blocking and some cold air at least better than we’ve had to force redevelopment off the Delmarva and it to be snow. There needs to be a brick wall in place to force that redevelopment in time to save us from going all or mostly rain or fast dry slot. Us-south of I-84 especially west of CT. The "default" with these is that SNE gets buried and we beg/do tricks for some table scraps SW of NYC.
-
A kick in the groin like that would totally fit this winter. Rain/sleet mix in Melville. Another T.
-
Euro’s probably insanely overdone but the fact remains that we need an earlier transfer. There could definitely be a powerful coastal storm given the untapped warm waters off the coast and the fact we’re headed into prime season for some big ones. Without the early transfer it’s essentially another crap SWFE as far as we’re concerned.
-
All depends on where such redevelopment would happen. A NAO block/50-50 in place would be best. If not it could be congrats Boston or even another sucky SWFE like the others.
-
So DC gets the summer like warmth, I-90 to Boston gets the winter storm, we get the lousy raw crap with drizzle. Sounds about right.
-
We also need something to lock the cold air in here 90% of the time. We can’t rely on SWFEs to give us decent events like I-90 and north can. Storms will try to cut when they reach us unless something like blocking or 50-50 low suppresses the track. The other 10% are the lucky occasions like the trailing wave etc.
-
Thanks for the analysis. Definitely agree that more research needs to be done on these marine heatwaves and how persistent they’ll be going forward.
-
The block in December was in a bad place and linked up with the SE ridge which is obviously game over for us. We don’t want these NAO blocks to keep trending south.
-
Something I’m curious about is why the NAO blocks keep going south based over the last few winters. That obviously does us no good either since we want the 50-50 low south of the block to create confluence and force the storm tracks underneath us.
-
We’ve been due for regression given the bonanza winters we’ve had, but until that massive W PAC warm pool goes away or is outdone by something else like a solid Nino, it will keep reinforcing this winter pattern. Nino/Nina isn’t just about what happens in the eastern Pacific, the counterpart in the western Pacific is just as important. The Atlantic warm pool is a double edged sword and I can see actually helping us when we have a Nino by maybe helping nudge an otherwise suppressed storm north 75-100 miles. This year with the background Nina state it’s obviously a disaster. But in a Nino state I can see it being helpful.
-
That’s just in your face depressing.
