jm1220

Very densely populated down there, and anecdotal stories that many decided not to evacuate. Hopefully not true and hopefully many can still be rescued if they decided to stay.

We take what we can get.

The surge would be that height above ground level plus the height above normal water level. So if a location is 13 feet above normal water level, 10 feet above ground level, and got flooded the surge was at least 13 feet. The surge is the height above the normal water level at that time.

Charlotte Harbor lucked out. Maybe the eastern shore got hit with surge as the eye pulled away but the big surge looks to be from Naples up to Sanibel. The major impact for Punta Gorda was wind, and I’m sure they got rocked. I wonder if it was worse than Charley. Probably lasted longer.

And water still rising in Ft Myers. Up to 8.57ft.

If that’s how bad Naples is I can’t imagine how bad Ft Myers Beach and Bonito Springs are near the eye.

When you’re told to leave and you’re in a flood area when you’re under a warning and well within the uncertainty cone, you leave. Intensity is the hardest thing to forecast in a hurricane and it was supposed to strengthen to landfall. Sorry, if you still refuse to leave I don’t have sympathy for you. And not everyone of course but as others pointed out Cape Coral/Ft Myers aren’t economically poor places. And they’ve boomed in population in the last 25 years. Catastrophe waiting to happen. Curious to see how it rebuilds after, but I’m sure it will given the demand still to move to FL waterfront cities.

They’re in for huge surge in Ft Myers for hours still. When the eye passes, wind will turn west which is still right into the bay. And that’s when the big surge into Charlotte Harbor will start (not as bad as Ft Myers/Cape Coral).

FT Myers is screwed for the back half of the storm too. All that is westerly wind coming into the bay. The images that’ll come in from there tomorrow/after will be horrendous, probably Katrina like.

Yeah honestly-hard to have much sympathy for people in Ft Myers/Cape Coral that stayed. If you’re told to leave and warned for days about the storm and refuse, that’s on you. And if they assumed EMS can come get them now, that’s a hella rude awakening for them too. Those surge maps showed maybe 90% of Cape Coral underwater up to 9 feet. With 200k people there, if even 10% decided to stay, yikes.

Probably a reason why we're not seeing footage from Cape Coral (200k people most of whom are housed next to canals) anymore. They're done.

And it's 12 feet above ground level (if the camera is 12 feet above ground). The actual surge would probably be 15-16 feet or whatever it is above the normal water level.

Eyewall should be at Punta Gorda/Pt Charlotte now.

The bumps east in the last hour or two have made it much more serious in Cape Coral/Ft Myers. Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda may relatively luck out. Cape Coral looks like it has about double the population as Charlotte Harbor. Captiva may be getting into the eye now.

That city's screwed, not sure how else to put it. Over 200,000 people in that area. Yikes.

Yeah, sad to think that all that water going out some place is coming back in at another place. It's really like a mound and like we're seeing, something like a tsunami.

We'll probably see some land confirmations soon for the stronger northern eye wall. Headed for Venice and Sarasota as you said. Thankfully for them the surge won't be too bad. Charlotte Harbor and Cape Coral though....

Yep, presentation looks like it should be cover of a textbook. That EWRC yesterday was at the worst possible time clearly. Eye probably has the stadium effect. Captiva may be about to get into the eye.

I don't think it's considered landfall until much of the eye is ashore. But a noticeable tick east again.

Much of FL is swamp land so it won't weaken as fast as if it was headed into a mountainous area, but it won't stay cat 4 or 5 for very long since perfect conditions are needed for that. If it speeds up it might stay as a hurricane across the peninsula though. Unfortunately for Charlotte Harbor looks like a worst case track/scenario here. Cape Coral near the edge of the eyewall too and will experience hours of steep water rise. Naples is a good bit further away from the eye and seeing steep rises.

Sanibel/Captiva look to be in the eyewall now. That same water rise will be in Charlotte Harbor shortly.

The surge will come in very rapidly with the eyewall coming onshore. The much higher wind will pile in the water. Soon that same surge is probably coming for Cape Coral as their wind increases/changes direction to more onshore.

Definitely a bit of east movement now. Cape Coral may not be out of the woods getting into the eyewall.

The water would only really come back in like a surge if the wind switches direction to piling the water back in. Unfortunately for places like Charlotte Harbor, that’s where that mound of water is going, along with wherever the east eyewall hits. Tampa will still have a lot of problems from the 20” rain that might be falling there.

Seeing a bit of a move east recently and the eastern eyewall look a little healthier probably helped by friction. This is about to go WAY downhill from Captiva on north.