jm1220

That band near Watertown-yikes. Not as much attention on that one as Buffalo but I’m sure there are 3-4 ft totals there too.

It’s amazing if you’re in the 15 mile swath where the band is, but outside of it meh. The northern half of Buffalo looks like it sees half or less what was forecast because the band orientation is a few miles further south than forecast, and the usual spots south of the city get the best snow.

When I was at Penn State there were brief lake effect bands that made it there a few times and they were quite an experience. Once right before Easter there was 5” of snow in 90 minutes. Very fluffy and was gone the next day. Much more often there are blinding snow squalls that last 5 minutes and coat the ground, but cause spin outs/accidents everywhere.

41, nasty cold rain.

Hopefully the Pacific doesn’t go full Nina roaring flat Pacific jet and MJO lock in Phase 6 like we saw as this Nina got underway 3 seasons ago. I’m not thrilled about the marine heatwave popping up again north of Australia and cool western Indian Ocean. That’s helped wreck our Pacific pattern in the past. As long as the Aleutian ridge can spike to near the Arctic Circle we’ll at least have cold air nearby.

If we want a snowy winter here we have to hope for at least one decent Dec event. Dec with below normal snow almost always portends a lousy winter overall in a Nina.

I made it down to 36 last night.

The east side of these systems always underperform on rain at this latitude. Best we can hope for IMO is a line of T-storms to come through with the front, that seems to be what much of our rain is on the models. But if that doesn't materialize some of us may see only a few brief showers. Isaias/Fay/Ida etc had very little rain east of the track. As bad as Sandy was, I think LI had under an inch of rain when predictions were for 3-6". The east side does often overperform on the wind but it doesn't look to be at a level that would be worse than a nuisance.

It’s phasing into a deep trough and it’ll be a strong cold front passing through so hopefully it does get interesting beyond a windy day for a while. Could be some good T-storm activity ahead of the front, but it could just be the windy/showery day too. We’ll just have to see.

At this point I wouldn’t expect more than showery weather for most of us and gusty winds to 50 mph or so. On the east side of these storms some might just have a shower or two and that’s it. Maybe we can luck out and we get a squall line in the instability as the strong cold front passes by.

How many dead trees are around from the summer drought though? I do agree that it looks like a run of the mill windy/showery event for most of us. The heavy rain will mostly be over PA and maybe W NJ. If anything models keep going west with the low track.

It's becoming likely there will be a PRE on Fri as well before what's left of Nicole makes it here. That looks to be well west of us. Looking like it's becoming the usual PA/NJ soaker and NYC east showery/windy with these systems. At least we have something interesting happening.

My hope would be for the eastern track-more rain area wide which we still need and less wind. I tend to think the west track is more likely which means more rain in PA/NJ and 60+ mph wind for NYC and east, which has also been the most common the last few years with these tropical/transitioning systems. If the Euro insists on it that much and now the GFS is trending to it, it’s likely more right.

Long Beach made it to 79. Nice beach day on 11/7 lol.

Wow, low 80s in much of Nassau. Even Long Beach up to 78. 77 at my place. And the lower humidity makes it feel awesome.

Last bit of heating with the downslope W flow. Much of Nassau up to near 80 now.

75 here. Feels like mid September.

That day 10 looks frigid with the ridge spiking north into the Arctic Ocean. Hopefully as we end the month we can start some blocking.

16" I believe in Long Beach. Was a very heavy wet snow. Only time I ever had thunder sleet which thankfully actually turned over to snow quickly. The height of it around midnight was absolutely incredible, must have been 3-4"/hr rate. The snow cover between then and the early Feb melt down was amazing too. That period from the 12/26/10 storm to that one was just as prolific as anything I've lived through.

1/27/11? One of my all time fav's.

I just moved to Texas before that one hit/didn’t hit so I was kinda bummed but nothing like the agony of watching 1/23/16 end up an all timer from there. Long Beach had 14-15” from Juno but probably 30” from Jonas.

Dense pea soup this morning. Worst fog I’ve seen in quite a while.

Down to 45. Quick drop on clear dry days like these.

If we can pull off that ridge over the Bering Strait it would be great. That would be a very cold trough with that cross polar flow. How Nina winters do here is strongly correlated to how steep the Aleutian ridge is. Steeper is way better. Flat ridge means we’re flooded in Pacific air.

Put the palm trees back out and shorts back on!! Hopefully we cool down in the second half of November and have at least one decent Dec snow event because as Don mentioned we’re likely doomed for winter if that doesn’t happen especially in a Nina which is typically front loaded.