jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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They had 0.8” or so liquid fall as ZR at the airport overnight. It fell at 30-31 degrees so a fair amount ran off but that area is unused to any type of winter weather besides some brief sleet or ice. Pretty much like any other southern city. I used to live there and it would be a disaster even for a brief glaze that would be gone after the stronger sun down there rises. For entire trees like that to come down I’d think it has to be a half inch accretion or greater though. Domain is the north side of the city and a little away from downtown so maybe it was a degree or two colder there. There were 150k outages in the city alone (Austin is a million people and about 2M or so metro area) last I checked so this was a widespread damaging event. And this isn’t an area that has widespread gas usage for heat so many are also shivering right now.
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Texas/Oklahoma Discussion & Obs Thread 2022
jm1220 replied to It's Always Sunny's topic in Central/Western States
150k plus customers in the city of Austin out (Austin Energy) and numerous traffic accidents all over town. From the looks of it, seems like a pretty serious event there. Luckily since temps seemed to be around 30-31 when the rain was falling and it was heavy, some definitely ran off instead of freeze (when temps are in the 20s instead much more freezes on the ground) but as a city not used to serious winter weather I’m sure it’s a major impact. -
Another coating here.
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NAM also looks like a typical January cold snap on Fri PM/Saturday here. Mid teens in the city, I-84 gets down to around 10 on Sat AM. At the end of its run but besides the Euro it looks like models are generally moderating it.
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I've long been in the "you just have to laugh" stage of this winter.
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If I was to bet it would be a round of flurries/light snow like today except it'll be colder so everyone gets snow. Coating to maybe half inch. Just to kick us in the teeth though I also bet what happens favors south of the city so they can jump ahead of us if even by a tiny bit.
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Probably closer to the cold air source there and colder 850 temps.
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It’s the only pittance we’ve got!
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Coating here with light snow.
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Yup. Gorgeous afternoon.
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Central Park had 17.2” from that. I still think that’s a top 10 event or close.
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If there’s the north wind down the Hudson with no downsloping it may get pretty close. -3 is likely overdone but could get to 0. There’s also no snow here but it’s on the ground close enough to here.
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It’s comical how it’s in and out in a day. One way below average day in 30 torch days.
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If we do get real cold from this, the way models are showing is the right way for it to happen. Little/any moderation from the due north cold advection, and snow cover isn't terribly far away. The Christmas cold snap got most of us down to the mid single digits and it came in literally the worst way cold air can come in for it to stay cold. But it's comical how the cold air lasts for literally one day because there's no blocking.
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The GEM is usually a little warm with surface temps but this winter it fits to a T.
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Your area really got nailed by that one. There was definitely 20" around Deer Park, Babylon, etc. I drove up 231 the day after and there was a drop off once you got to around the LIE up to where I live where there was probably 14-15". You would also notice an uptick in the snowpack once you drove east to Commack and definitely Smithtown. Doesn't happen often but that was definitely a SW Suffolk jackpot and then east from there.
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97-98 would've been a really nice winter had it been a few degrees cooler. Lots of favorable tracks but just overwhelmed in warm air. 09-10 did end up a good season despite the 2/6 disaster, and 1/23/16 was set to miss us as well but there was a last minute 75 mile north bump that saved most of us. We never really have a 'gimme' winter here.
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After the 1/23/16 blizzard I missed, I did happen to be in town for when it hit-1.
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Yup. The climate is an incredibly complex and dynamic system that our modeling, good as it is can’t capture the nuances of in local regions. Unfortunately our kids/grandkids etc will have to find out those consequences. What’s pretty clear for our region is that we’re becoming more Carolina like-higher humidity in summer vs hotter temps, and likely more hurricane threats. Winters (down the road) will become more like the VA Tidewater (even Norfolk averages 6” snow a year lol).
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There’s no confluence or blocking north of us, so no mechanism to build and keep a high pressure.
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Flat lined would imply it’s had some life at all.
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Somebody had to start the topic I guess. Godspeed.
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The reason I keep saying that CC is a plus on top of an already crappy pattern is because this winter’s pattern would suck no matter what year. It’s been a rampaging Pacific along with the steep SE Ridge. “Another year” would be +7 or 8 January not +10 but it’s been constantly cold in the northern Plains and NW for several winters. Seattle has more snow than Boston this winter. Part of this to me is the rubber band snapping back and we can’t bank on blockbuster winters like we had last decade. Where CC might really contribute though is reinforcing certain patterns like these where the warm Atlantic reinforces the SE Ridge and warm western Pacific reinforces a Nina atmospheric state. More research needs to be done on that. In the summer it seems to reinforce our increasing humidity on a southerly flow vs more hot 95+ degree days on a westerly wind. The ridge becoming steeper causes the Bermuda High to move north and it becomes more Florida like here while the worst of the heat shoots over into New England.
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We’ve also seen that we either have blockbusters or total bust winters, very few in between. Last year was an anomaly where I just about hit average on the nose but it was off one very big and one significant snow event. Climate change probably would reinforce the big snow or no patterns because of the warmer waters/more contrast fueling the blizzards and years like this fueling the massive SE ridge and constant warmth. The climate change fueled marine heatwaves will also change how Nino/Nina patterns develop because the hot western Pacific for example is enhancing the Nina background state.
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NYC doesn’t have a breadbasket storm type that delivers the bulk of the snow. DC has Miller A type Gulf storms/southern sliders that deliver their snow while Boston has Miller B redevelopers. NYC can get hit by both types in the right circumstances but also get missed. That’s why it’s so hard to forecast snow amounts here-it’s hard to lock in a snowstorm here 4-5 days out like you can in DC and Boston when you know the storm type. NYC is often on the edge where a 75 mile difference can mean 12+ or little. 2/6/10 is the most extreme example, last Jan’s storm, 1/25/15, 1/23/16 etc where tiny differences near NYC would’ve caused hugely different outcomes while Boston or DC’s fates were locked for days before.
