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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Yep that's not an eyewall anymore, it's more like a frontal boundary now.
  2. jm1220
    I'd bet where those small cells come onto land, that very strong winds are happening there. During Sandy those were where the really strong (80-90mph gusts) mixed down. And the sting jet behind the center would be another spot.
  3. jm1220
    Where those “cells” are popping up to the right of the center will likely have the strongest winds.
  4. jm1220
    NYC can definitely get hit by a major Hurricane in the right setup. 1938 could’ve hit 100 miles further west, Gloria could’ve been a real major if it wasn’t annihilated by dry air, etc. The 1893 Hog Island Hurricane may have been a major. We’re due for a stretch again like 1938-1960 where we had numerous strikes nearby.
  5. jm1220
    But I mean-it is post tropical. It doesn’t have a symmetric warm core CDO anymore for sure, and you can see for the last few hours the cold air stratocumulus wrapping into the storm. There’s also the classic baroclinic leaf growing out NW of the storm. Takes nothing away from its destruction and I think Environment Canada will treat “post tropical hurricanes” differently after this storm. Thank goodness it’s not headed directly into Halifax or just west.
  6. jm1220
    Same evolution as Sandy so pretty much the same result except a good bit worse because of the marine heatwave in the area and it being a month earlier. Judging by the radar a bit of west movement now? Sandy was 945mb at landfall, looks like those insane model runs in the 920s-930 will be right. Yikes.
  7. jm1220
    Yep, once it happens it’ll be quick.
  8. jm1220
    On the satellite you can see the beginning of the tug back to the left in the direction of the high clouds. They seem to be backing to the left somewhat already.
  9. jm1220
    When the interaction happens it can be yanked left pretty quick. I remember how much speculation there was that Sandy would end up over eastern LI because it kept trucking NE, but it turned left almost on a dime when the trough dove in.
  10. jm1220
    As it's transitioning it'll still have the calm center. The worst winds will likely happen a ways east of the center. It'll look something like a regular nor'easter when it comes ashore with all the steady rain west of the center but this obviously is incredibly worse.
  11. jm1220
    After this storm they will, trust me. At the end of the day surge will be the biggest story from this. The fetch this will create is immense due to the expanding size and pre-existing intensity. Again thankfully it isn't a 100 mile or west track or that surge would be headed into Halifax and that would.... suck.
  12. jm1220
    Hurricane Sandy, “Perfect Storm” like evolution but significantly worse. It’s a full month earlier, Fiona is a stronger storm and waters are way warmer than normal on its way up. If this can really be 930mb at landfall up there, wonder how much of Sable Island would even be left. Another question is where there may be surge gauges to catch how high it gets. In any place that can funnel in a surge it’ll be insane. I think the highest surges from Sandy were 12-13 feet in the sheltered bays like Raritan Bay and this will be worse. Miraculous is right that it’s not directly or right-siding any major population center.
  13. jm1220
    First real “step down” anyway from summer. About 0.8” here, looks like that’ll do it.
  14. jm1220
    0.7” just about here.
  15. jm1220
    Could be some hail with that cell. Looks pretty intense.
  16. jm1220
    The worst impacts will be to the right and maybe significantly right of the track because it’ll expand so much. Not sure where the ‘worst’ Sandy impact would’ve been but it was well away from the center. Still sparsely populated from the looks of it but a huge area overall as you said. I remember some insane Euro/GFS runs with a 930 mb Sandy into NJ which ended up 945 at landfall, but this is a full month before Sandy and the same phase/ET process will be taking place before so I can definitely see it being stronger. Thankfully is right this is missing the huge population centers because it would be catastrophic.
  17. jm1220
    49 this morning here.
  18. jm1220
    This probably won’t be it but we certainly are due for what we saw from the late 1930s-early 1960s. A Great Atlantic Hurricane, Donna, 1938, Hazel etc would be 50 billion dollar disasters at the very minimum. Bob 75 miles or so further west would’ve been devastating as well. We seem to get these marine heatwaves all the time too, so any Hurricane would have less time to weaken as it comes north.
  19. jm1220
    Good thing in 256 hours/10-11 days we can lock that up.
  20. jm1220
    NYC, NJ and northern half of LI-absolutely. There’s essentially no drought where I am. South shore got fringed by all this rain and is still way behind average. If we’re back into the upper 80s and 90s again soon, the ground will be bone dry again down there as soon as that starts.
  21. jm1220
    At this point you just have to laugh. Probably 1” here maybe a little under. Way more about 20 mins west of me.
  22. jm1220
    90-95% of it’s been sheet drizzle here. Something like a light rain shower now. We have a shot at something more significant tomorrow night but otherwise this will likely be another snoozer for coastal areas.
  23. jm1220
    As with anything this summer I'll believe it when I see it for places in the drought. Models are fairly encouraging though for once.
  24. jm1220
    Usual correction to dry coastal areas/wet inland coming?
  25. jm1220
    If anything it should be D3 south of the Southern State and D0 if anything north of the Northern State/LIE. You look at the grass/trees here and it’s like any normal summer. But the south shore literally looks charred.
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