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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Yep, eyewall looks to be only 15 miles off the beach which is where the extremely strong surge and wind would be. Only a few hours away from Captiva on north.
  2. jm1220
    Wow, certainly wasn’t expected for it to ramp up like this in intensity. Have to think this will be devastating to inland buildings even with the good building codes with this duration of strong winds, and the surge will be horrendous for a wide stretch probably from Ft Myers north. Charlotte Harbor area will be absolutely wrecked, probably much worse than Charley since that was a tiny core. Sarasota area also in for a huge impact with the north jog. Hopefully there can be a bit of a cycle down at least before it makes landfall so it can come in at 140-145 instead of 155. Just wow.
  3. jm1220
    Looks like this EWRC will be completed pretty rapidly. Wonder if it’ll have time to strengthen more/consolidate the new eye before landfall.
  4. jm1220
    It would have to hook NE pretty much to miss Naples/Marco Island to the south which is a stretch.
  5. jm1220
    Probably hoping for a lucky EWRC at this point. The dry air/cool water saving grace wont happen in time.
  6. jm1220
    Lots of inlets and bays too that will funnel the surge. This is gonna be a bad one for a lot of people. Looks like people there are taking it seriously though and getting out.
  7. jm1220
    Extremely symmetrical/well defined eye. Just about picture perfect satellite presentation and definitely primed to go. Fort Myers looking like it’s in a really tough spot. I guess the one hope this doesn’t bring hurt on a lot of people is it somehow keeps trending south past Naples. That whole Tampa to Ft Myers area has exploded in population as others have pointed out, so there’s really no “good” landfall area in that stretch, and it’s also very surge vulnerable especially with a larger storm like this.
  8. jm1220
    Today’s LOL-flooding lake effect rain north of Syracuse. Can’t say I’ve seen flash flood warnings for those before or 4-6” of rain from lake effect streamers. Lakes must be really warm for that to happen.
  9. jm1220
    We had a drought for maybe 2 weeks up here lol. More like an average dry spell.
  10. jm1220
    At this point it’s hard to say. The rainfall boundaries have kept setting up like this over northern NYC and northern LI. From time to time the sea breeze boundaries cause more rain to develop over central/northern LI but it’s been so excessive that it can’t be the overall story.
  11. jm1220
    Yep, looks like the rain is edging north again. It's just unbelievable how persistent this is over months now.
  12. jm1220
    Rain starting up again. I have 1.3-1.5" already by radar estimate. And finally S Nassau getting in on some of the action.
  13. jm1220
    I don't think any hail here but it's an absolute gusher.
  14. jm1220
    Downpour, frequent lightning. We'll see if any hail makes it here.
  15. jm1220
    Looks like a hail core around Albertson area headed toward Jericho.
  16. jm1220
    About to get rocked here, loud thunder currently
  17. jm1220
    Opal had the pinhole eye that essentially folded like a house of cards. I guess once it gets to that high category state it needs perfection especially when the core is that tiny. Anything goes wrong and it collapses. I'm sure the dry air near the continent helped too. This one does seem to be more at risk at having that 1990s-2000s Gulf half-a-cane outcome if the departing trough throws down too much dry air. But the Gulf is untouched this year by any hurricane so who knows how long this could sustain for in the N Gulf.
  18. jm1220
    You live through something like that once then believe me, you never want to again. NYC area after Sandy was mostly pure hell for a month after especially where the surge hit. My town had no drinkable water for 10 days and no power for a month along with the huge surge damage. And Fiona was worse for these people.
  19. jm1220
    Wonder how much that sting Jet remains but I’m sure that means business. Sable Island gusted to 120mph on that jet?
  20. jm1220
    Yep that's not an eyewall anymore, it's more like a frontal boundary now.
  21. jm1220
    I'd bet where those small cells come onto land, that very strong winds are happening there. During Sandy those were where the really strong (80-90mph gusts) mixed down. And the sting jet behind the center would be another spot.
  22. jm1220
    Where those “cells” are popping up to the right of the center will likely have the strongest winds.
  23. jm1220
    NYC can definitely get hit by a major Hurricane in the right setup. 1938 could’ve hit 100 miles further west, Gloria could’ve been a real major if it wasn’t annihilated by dry air, etc. The 1893 Hog Island Hurricane may have been a major. We’re due for a stretch again like 1938-1960 where we had numerous strikes nearby.
  24. jm1220
    But I mean-it is post tropical. It doesn’t have a symmetric warm core CDO anymore for sure, and you can see for the last few hours the cold air stratocumulus wrapping into the storm. There’s also the classic baroclinic leaf growing out NW of the storm. Takes nothing away from its destruction and I think Environment Canada will treat “post tropical hurricanes” differently after this storm. Thank goodness it’s not headed directly into Halifax or just west.
  25. jm1220
    Same evolution as Sandy so pretty much the same result except a good bit worse because of the marine heatwave in the area and it being a month earlier. Judging by the radar a bit of west movement now? Sandy was 945mb at landfall, looks like those insane model runs in the 920s-930 will be right. Yikes.
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