jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Hopefully but as today proves, don’t count any rain this year until it’s in the bucket. Sun is out here in Long Beach.
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Another big mehh. The rain split is real obviously, and another general screw job. Hopefully by the end we get to 1" but from here on looks like scattered showers and a blustery/raw day. Just what I was worried about. Any rain is good for the south shore but the drought lives on.
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Yup, unfortunately it’ll be a haves/have not situation for those people. It’ll be interesting to see how the insurance industry there handles the avalanche of claims coming in when it’s already been in deep doo doo for some time. The lifeline for the less well off will be FEMA and what grants they can get in order to take care of the essentials and finding a suitable place to live in the meantime. FEMA I’m sure will have to set up camps to house people. But there’s no way Sanibel/Fort Myers can rebuild the way it was before and still be insured. The houses will have to be on stilts or the bottom 10 feet be a concrete garage, above that be any living area. Building codes for wind do bupkis for surge, and it’s only a matter of time before it happens again. Pretty much all of the homes that look OK from the outside there have enormous water damage and have to be gutted if not demolished.
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I don’t count any rain until it’s in the bucket this year. A split like that with the main precip offshore wouldn’t shock me at all. I’m in Long Beach now and anything not regularly irrigated is dead. Horrible to see.
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Winds are from the E at Myrtle Beach so the center must be close by. Maybe in between Georgetown and there?
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That’s a break for Georgetown then. Their high tide was at 1pm.
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Charleston estimated 6-7” of rain so far in this band. Wonder how susceptible they are to rain flooding.
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In Long Beach we have hundreds or more homes now that are garages on the first floor and the living area on the 2nd/3rd. The bottom garage floor is mostly concrete. Either that or the home will have to be on stilts, which isn't "pleasing" but either that or it'll be uninsurable. Optimally these barrier islands just wouldn't be rebuilt but we're talking about FL here.
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Georgetown probably the worst. Both cities are near high tide right now so timing is bad.
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Charleston escaping the storm surge but the rain flooding there will likely be obscene. They might get 10” by the time this band over them subsides?
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Yup, this will really take months just to get a basic standard of living back in the devastated areas and years to start to get things back to a new kind of normal. The bridges taken out just themselves will take-6 months to repair?
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Georgetown SC high tide is at 1pm. They’re in some trouble I think.
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It’s being Fujiwara-ed around the upper level disturbance it’s getting near I think. It’s making one last attempt to wrap some convection around the center, but 85mph looks to be the landfall strength.
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The rebuilt homes there will likely have to be on stilts or have their main living area 9ft or higher above ground level in order to get any kind of flood insurance after this (and FL already has an insurance crisis ongoing). It’s going to be a rough road. I’d say that some of those islands may not be worth rebuilding but given the population boom, I’m sure they all will be.
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Storm is moving quicker too. High tide at Myrtle Beach is 11:30am, can’t imagine this is great timing. Tide will be going out as it comes in, so that’s a plus I guess.
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Unless they’re building sea walls after this, one day the devastation will just happen again on those barrier islands/surge zones. Not sure what building code can keep the building from taking horrible water damage. Saw it firsthand after Sandy, buildings from the outside looked not terrible but inside- totally wrecked and in many cases needed to be demolished. The barrier islands may be easier, in those cases the demolishing was already taken care of.
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Exactly, anywhere that had surge flooding has tons of water damage inside and has to be gutted, if not torn down because mold will start up soon. Unless these building codes have mold resistant walls.
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Core is trying to tighten up again, looks like convection is attempting to wrap around. It’s interacting with a trough to the west and I agree it definitely looks more like a nor’easter but it’s trying to make something of a comeback.
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Hopefully it’s right but I don’t count rain for the parched areas until it’s in the bucket. Conditions are favorable for a soaking if it comes together, but it could also be a bunch of light showery stuff if the coastal development doesn’t happen or happens too far offshore.
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Hopefully real to some extent. We could also get a lot of light/scattered crap that adds up to maybe 0.75" in a day which wouldn't be helpful. Would be remembered as just a raw, blustery weekend.
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Hope it’s right. Would be worst for people who need it.
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It had the pressure of a Cat 3, huge overall size and the funneling effect of NY Harbor and back bays to channel in the surge. The winds weren’t Cat 3 level but the same energy was just spread over a larger area. The surge was devastating for millions of people. Actual Hurricane Gloria made landfall in my town and was nowhere near as bad, as well as actual borderline TS/Hurricane Irene. Again there’s no magic delineator between “non-tropical” and “tropical” that defines how dangerous a storm is. It’s why so many changes were made to the NHC products after Sandy. My hometown on a barrier island had scores of people that stayed because they heard “Sandy won’t even be a hurricane” when it gets here.
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Some places preemptively cut the power in FL where surge intrusion was expected, which was probably a very good call if it happened. Another mistake my town made was keeping the power grid on even as the surge was charging in.
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My town had no power for a month because of the power infrastructure problem FL will be dealing with. Places that didn’t flood in Sandy did get the power back in a week or so, and crews from IN and MO were in my town working on it. In areas that had saltwater intrusion into any power infrastructure it likely needs to be rebuilt entirely. Anything electric/metallic, the salt water destroys.
