jm1220

We’ve also seen that we either have blockbusters or total bust winters, very few in between. Last year was an anomaly where I just about hit average on the nose but it was off one very big and one significant snow event. Climate change probably would reinforce the big snow or no patterns because of the warmer waters/more contrast fueling the blizzards and years like this fueling the massive SE ridge and constant warmth. The climate change fueled marine heatwaves will also change how Nino/Nina patterns develop because the hot western Pacific for example is enhancing the Nina background state.

NYC doesn’t have a breadbasket storm type that delivers the bulk of the snow. DC has Miller A type Gulf storms/southern sliders that deliver their snow while Boston has Miller B redevelopers. NYC can get hit by both types in the right circumstances but also get missed. That’s why it’s so hard to forecast snow amounts here-it’s hard to lock in a snowstorm here 4-5 days out like you can in DC and Boston when you know the storm type. NYC is often on the edge where a 75 mile difference can mean 12+ or little. 2/6/10 is the most extreme example, last Jan’s storm, 1/25/15, 1/23/16 etc where tiny differences near NYC would’ve caused hugely different outcomes while Boston or DC’s fates were locked for days before.

“Bigger storm” this year without blocking probably means cutter or SWFE. I’d gladly take a smaller few inch type event.

At least since the ground isn't frozen the water table can build up I guess. Too much tonight though. It's absolutely pouring and I'm sure some basements will flood.

I have no idea really what Long Beach got in Jan 2015, I was going by other Nassau totals and pictures I saw from around town that looked like around that much. Jan 2016 it was clear was probably an all timer. My benchmark personally is Jan 1996 and the snow looked even deeper than that. My brother sent me a picture of our garage almost totally buried.

Could be worse. I missed both Jan 2015 and 2016 storms because I was living in TX at the time. In Long Beach-my home town, Jan 2015 was a very impressive but not historic event, about 15” there. Jan 2016 was all time historic, 24-30”. You can imagine what gut punches those were. The day you guys were getting buried, it was 78 and bright sunny in Austin.

Seattle switched coasts.

Western ridge axis is way too far west and no blocking. To me this just means that behind the cutters it gets colder which if it's possible I hate even more because in the winter there's nothing worse than warm cutter to cold/dry. Maybe this can promote some front end snow going into one of the cutters.

Should be a soaker tonight. 21z HRRR showed up to 2” across LI. The LLJ associated with the developing coastal low means business. Winds will be kicked up too.

Most of us had a decent one in early Jan last year. 8" of powdery snow IMBY.

Was outside a half hour ago and another attempt at mangled flakes/sleet. Pathetic.

Chances of Central Park measuring something? 10%?

Highly doubt it. Snowing in some places but temp is still 36-37 degrees. Colder spots in NYC do seem to be all snow now. Here in LI jackpot land it’s rain with a few flakes mixed in. If there is some slush for a bit in Central Park odds are it won’t even be measured.

Light rain here with some mangled flakes mixed in.

Looks like a nice event for you guys! State College looks like a snow globe on the webcams. CC on radar looks like the mix will stay west of the Allegheny Ridge until it’s over.

FWIW probably a positive bust in Central PA. State College at 28 and heavy snow. CC looks like the mix will hold off until the dry slot arrives.

Even if somehow it’s right (it won’t be), temps are already near 40 and dew points are going up on the easterly flow so we can’t wetbulb to near freezing. Any snow would be white rain that wouldn’t accumulate. I’d say 90% chance it just starts as rain.

Maybe we’ll even get some hail. Hey, it’s frozen precip we ain’t getting any other way.

I happen to agree. The 30” is skewed by the big winters we had in the past 10 years and will likely reverse somewhat in the next 10 years. As we see here what can be given easily gets taken away. This will be the 4th of the last 5 winters that will very likely be well below “average” at Central Park. The 5th was 20-21 where we all really lucked out.

I average I’d say 33-34” per year. NorthShoreWX in Smithtown is at 38”/winter over the last 25 years so maybe I average a little more being just west of him. ISP averages right around 32”. Central Park with the new averages is right about 30”. We shouldn’t expect blockbusters but there should definitely be a few decent events per winter.

This is up there with the worst, 97-98 would be the one where I don’t remember some kind of snow event by now. Even 19-20 and 01-02 had some kind of minor event by late Jan. If things don’t really turn around in Feb this will certainly be one of the all time worst.

After the Christmas arctic front came through it was comical how much salt was on the roads for the flash freeze that never happened because we had 3 hours after the precip ended until we went below freezing.

0z HRRR says you basically have to be in the Catskills to see any appreciable snow. Could be quite a soaker for most of us though, models are showing 2"+ in some cases.

This is kind of a jackpot zone-the north shore from Nassau through much of Suffolk is about the same. Marginal situations usually work out here for an extra inch or two. ISP averages about 32” I think. The south shore and southern NYC are probably mid 20s.

There has to be some consolation for this unmitigated disaster. I average probably 33-34"/winter and am sitting at 0.5" which was gone in less than an hour in Dec. Yesterday when the high fives were flying for many of you, so were my white rain-flakes for an hour. This isn't a great place for winter by any means but there should at least be a few half decent events per season.