jm1220

FWIW the other hi-res models look pretty decent along with the HRRR/RAP. RGEM is a lot drier so it shows less cooling/less snow for near the city. FV3 looks atrocious but I think it's a short range GFS so not surprising.

Haven’t looked at the QPF but I’d assume it’s drier than Nam and therefore not as much dynamic cooling. We can see how tomorrow might take shape already. The city and immediate coast are stuck around 40. Once away from there it’s around freezing. It can get a couple degrees colder from wet bulbing down but the sun will warm it back up without the heavy snow keeping it cool.

We can hope. If the precip comes in like a heavy wall we’ll know the aggressive models were right. If scattered/light the GFS will be right. The heavy wall is how most of us can salvage some decent accums.

Fine by me honestly. The well inland areas in PA and NY are tremendously below average for snow this winter. They can have it.

Probably reasonable. The real questions will be how much we lose to rain/white rain, and how heavy the snow can come down to where it accumulates. This likely isn't one to be on the south shore or the city for. Wouldn't surprise me if Central Park ends with a T despite hours of snow falling. For where I am hopefully we can luck our way to 2" and get me over 30" for the winter. The best odds for a nice event are along I-84 down to the Tappan Zee, S CT and N NJ with some elevation.

Yep, models are trending that way. Not a surprise. Almost like clockwork last second north bump.

I-84 down to around White Plains/the CT coast/down to I-80 in NJ might be good spots for this. Models today are zooming in on that area for a heavy snow band for a while tomorrow. South of that there could be a subsidence area. Where the rates aren't heavy I doubt there's much accumulation. We'll have to see where this banding sets up.

It's really NAM or bust for anything decent near the city. RGEM wasn't too bad but even the 3k NAM backed off the amounts pretty big since 6z.

It takes into account the warm surface temps. This would be a gloppy 32-33 degree snow which would be significantly less than 10-1 ratio.

It’s probably GFS like with it being weak/scattered crap so it stays too warm.

It’ll be tough for this to be much of anything in the city, there I agree. But colder spots on LI and even most places outside the very densely populated/urban heat island might have a nice event if the more aggressive models are right. If it’s something weak like the GFS though Upton will be right. Even in April when the Sun angle is significantly worse we’ve seen snow accumulate well during the day if heavy enough.

Upton still not biting whatsoever. Has it as a rain snow mix for most, under 1" near the coast and 1-2" north of the city. I'm thinking that's about what it'll be unless it comes in as a heavy wall. If it's scattered/light to moderate it'll struggle to accumulate anywhere and might mix with rain.

GFS is broken up/disorganized with the precip while the NAM has a heavy snow axis for 6hrs or so along I-78 and into NYC/LI. The precip rate will matter too. If it's light broken up crud, it might just be rain or white rain. We need the heavy rates too.

I will say the other 0z meso models look decent for the Wed event as well. But this won't be anywhere near 10-1 ratios with the marginal at best temps and some will likely get wasted as white rain. But maybe this can be a half decent event that can sneak up on us outside the city. The city will probably have mostly white rain outside of the colder areas like Bayside/Whitestone unless it can come down heavily for a while. As for the squall line it split my area of course and there was a brief moderate shower.

If the snow comes down hard enough it’ll accumulate regardless of time of year. But no way it’s more than a lucky 5-6” somewhere and away from the city. And that’s if the 1-2% possibility happens that the Nam is right. More likely it’s the way other models have it where it’s maybe a slushy couple of inches.

Would be perfectly fitting for this winter to have another suppressed storm to knee us in the groin one last time.

Every November from now on we need to fly about 1000 B-52 bombers full of ice blocks and dump them from the Philippines to north of Australia. And repeat as needed until the PNA cooperates.

Until something gets to within 72-96hrs take it with a big dose of suspicion. The situation with the AO/NAO may improve somewhat but still not ideal so we have the same risk of too progressive or too amped. We have plenty of cold nearby but there's the risk it gets mistimed between storms. The wavelengths are shortening now so we may luck out regardless. Bluewave/Don I'm sure will have good stats to describe our odds in this upcoming pattern. I'll be looking forward to the warmth on Sun/Mon even though rain comes with it. If the snow's done, last thing I want are more pointless cold shots. Let's just warm up and be done. Hopefully the backdoors aren't too frequent this spring unlike the last few.

Yep, those warm SSTs are a blessing and a curse. We get pounded by the coastal storms but the ridge also gets amplified.

Well NW and up the Hudson Valley I’d give it an F. Albany has 24” and their season average is in the low 60s. Highly doubt they come close to making that gap up. That’s a disaster for them. Scranton is still under 20” so an F there as well.

I’m at about 29” which is slightly below normal for the winter if there’s nothing else. I think @NorthShoreWX has 34” a few towns east of me. I’d give this winter a C if we get no more snow.

This season is a very sharp reversal of last winter for snow. The bonanza zones in E PA and N NJ are way below average this year and New England way better. Boston taking Central Park to the woodshed with over 50” so far, above normal and Central Park 17.5” which I’d say is well below. Last year both were tied. In many respects this winter is acting more like a typical Nina other than the couple of suppressed systems. The +AO shafted us.

Post here all you like, any good contributions are welcome. But your payment will be your home/cabin during a 2-3 foot event off Lake Ontario.

Sun is out and temps are finally in the upper 30s. Ice is gone except for shaded spots.

If it was 2 degrees colder, much of NYC and northern LI would’ve been in a lot of trouble. The heavy precip rate meant that with it being 30 instead of 28 much less accreted.