jm1220

Looks about the same here. Bare patches growing pretty quickly though. The one thing that could make it worse for snow retention is if there was a stronger wind. I’d imagine down in Long Beach there’s not much left.

About 6-7” on average down here, some exposed spots are bare. It’s resilient because of the water content but I doubt there’s much left by the time we go below freezing again.

Not too worried about the city and near the coast anymore. The boundary has slowly been delayed in getting here on the models today and GFS just delayed it again and removes most precip after it. Could there be a glaze-sure, but the real ice threat will be north of the city. Lots of rain and unfortunately snow melt before. Most of us other than the really crushed spots will be down to piles by the time the cold gets here again. Next 24 hours with high humidity will eat it right up.

Any amount of ice is an issue but over 0.3” or so can create real problems and is at the point where tree limbs start to break. Hopefully that’s overdone. If the precip is light it might create more of a problem actually. Lighter rain is more likely to freeze on contact vs heavy rain much of which would run off at temps above 28 or so.

Hopefully we get to a situation where it’s cold rain that doesn’t melt much snow and it all freezes at the end. I think the collapse south to where it’s sleet is unlikely unless you’re up near I-84. I wouldn’t weigh the Nam too heavily pretty much ever.

I’ve always thought of the eastern half of LI as being more similar to New England climo wise-like Cape Cod than Mid Atlantic but it’s still part of the NYC metro area. So who knows.

So basically take Nina climo for a February and print it out. Got it.

You’d have to look at soundings to determine where snow would be. Might be the case that it’s warm above 850mb and you’re still sleet. But at least it wouldn’t be crippling icing.

Not unheard of. I remember Valentines Day 2007 was an ice storm on the south shore and sleet in NYC and north shore. Very fickle so hopefully the cold surface air is thicker. Where the main precip slug coincides with a below freezing shallow layer, there’ll be big trouble in this event I think.

The main precip slug seems to be lagging a bit on the models as well which gives more time for the high and cold air to press down.

Wow, I agree that was a concerning Euro run. Hard to say right now what will happen around NYC. I’m a little concerned where I am because as far as Long Island goes, I’m in one of the coldest spots in general. Hopefully this can keep trending colder so that it’s sleet. Would add plenty of density to the snow and make it last a lot longer.

UK and GGEM seem considerably warmer than GFS. Starting to think GFS is out to lunch and many of us get rain to maybe brief snow at the end.

Seems like it’s getting a little warmer? I won’t be thrilled but I’ll gladly take the rain over a crippling ice storm that would knock power out for hundreds of thousands. Hopefully it can be a cold rain that won’t knock the snow cover out. I think the greatest odds at the ice storm will be just NW of the city and it’ll end up a little warmer but it can’t be ruled out in the immediate city/metro.

Not true. On April 2, 2018 I had 6" of snow right on the coast. April 7, 2003 7-8 inches, late March 2018 had 18-20" of snow on parts of Long Island and close to a foot right on the coast, etc. Not saying it would be true here but late Mar/early Apr can definitely produce near the coast in the right setup.

It would take a lot going right for there to be snow down to NYC with this. There’s cold at the surface but a nasty warm layer above from the warm air being lifted in the overrunning. I think the ice storm makes sense here but the question is where. Probably the first time ever I’m rooting for the sleet storm. It’ll make the snowpack way denser and bulletproof.

I just drove up Rt 231 from Babylon to Jericho Tpke and Sunrise Highway east from Wantagh. The whole area from Seaford to Babylon to around the LIE got slammed. I definitely believe the 20+ totals there. Amounts decreased a little in Dix Hills and a little more by the time you get to my house. It looks almost dead on like after the 2/1 storm last year which was 15” for me, so that’s probably what I got this time here. Looks a little more overall than Long Beach has but there was a lot more drifting there. Some lawns there are bare, some clogged in snow so I think 12” for Long Beach is good. Tomorrow I’ll drive down Vets Highway past MacArthur to Patchogue and really salivate.

Maybe maybe not. A stronger overrunning wave will push it north. But at this lead time the cold air might not be showing up as well as it would be at the surface. This would be a nasty ice storm for a pretty wide area if this setup stays as is.

I wouldn’t mind sleet at all this time. It’ll get pounded into the snowpack and freeze it into cement.

I’m wondering if this will continue pressing south in the coming days. That’s some nasty confluence and high pressure trying to push down, and often at this lead time models don’t see the surface cold air. That upper air chart screams ice storm somewhere.

I definitely believe the ice storm potential somewhere with a huge high and overrunning coming in from the south. Hopefully it can nose south a little more so we get snow/sleet or stays north and it rains. I have no interest in 0.5" of ice that would create huge power issues.

Atlantic City-incredible. 3 significant winter storms for them this month. For the season I probably have about 25” in Huntington Station.

The bickering is ridiculous, like hurts my eyeballs to look at ridiculous.

Elmont 17.3”, I’m calling BS on that one. Orient 25”,’ wow, but they were sitting under that final band for hours. There are probably lots of 20-25” in the Hamptons and N Fork.

Winds break dendrites apart which pile up the best. The 1/9 storm had perfect fluff dendrites because the wind wasn't a factor and there was a good band across the Island that had good lift. Outside of the bands today, lift must have sucked which doesn't help in production of good flakes. Where lift/condensation happens where it's -12 to -18C is where dendrites form. Outside of that you have needle/sand flakes which today might've had because it was too cold where flakes were forming, or lifting sucked.

Can't speak for Jan 2016 since I wasn't here but winds were lighter? More banding? I was in subsidence or outside of banding most of the day today and flakes here were crap-sand flakes despite temps in the teens. I guess what falls out of the cloud adds up in the end, the snow is pretty dense here but the lift in the bands probably produces better flakes than lousy lift in subsidence areas, and winds were light enough for them to make it to the ground? I only know what I saw, not the insanity ISP or Lindenhurst or Hamptons had.