jm1220

Guess it would be fitting for the south shore for the rain to shift from missing to the west/south to the north now.

We’re nowhere close to being too warm for snow in the winters. The main problem we’ll keep having is bad storm tracks when +NAO/AO dominate.

D3 here we come!!

There are so many marine heatwaves that they compete with each other and have often overridden the ENSO signal unless it’s strong. The N Atlantic right now screams +NAO because of the cooler water near Greenland and warm water off the East Coast and Canada, but much of our weather is defined by the Pacific. Hopefully we can finally get out from this Nina background state and develop a good STJ for the winter, that will probably make it better for us vs relying on Miller B storms and +AO often forcing unfavorable tracks.

2002 was a dry/hot summer and 2002-03 was a very good winter but it was also a moderate Nino, this will almost certainly be another Nina. So I think many other factors will determine how good quality the winter will be.

Near the barrier islands, many trees died from saltwater inundation during Sandy. In Long Beach there are very few tall trees anymore, most are newly planted after Sandy. We had a major nor'easter in March 2010 with 75-80mph winds that also destroyed many trees. But what trees there are on the south shore look awful in general this summer.

Color me totally stunned.

Brief shower here with the cell that went through Melville.

Radar says maybe 0.50” there. It was tiny and flew by. Enough to make some puddles and that’s it, wayyy more needed.

Long Beach might actually get a T-storm, it’ll be close. Fingers crossed.

Tons of dry air being funneled into the Atlantic from the Sahara for one thing, and also increased shear. Nina usually reduces the shear.

91 here. Thankfully dewpoints are low.

Radar estimating 3-4” in Greenlawn/E Northport this afternoon.

Greenlawn to be the only place on LI where you’ll find them anymore. They had the max 3-4” amounts.

Over an inch here with these storms, constant loud thunder for the last hour. Just east of me has 3” per radar.

Those are just to my east. Loud thunder.

In Long Beach it looks terrible. Most of the trees there are small, new trees planted post Sandy and most of them are losing leaves. Lawns are all dead which haven’t been regularly watered since June.

Maybe the winter can also be anti Nina but I think we know how that will turn out.

Good for the areas that got it. Slid just south of me so I just got about 0.1”.

Never expected much here. The models targeted NJ more and more closer to the event which is all I needed to see. There were 2 very brief showers here that made the street wet for a minute total. We need a large synoptic weather system here for it to rain, otherwise we’re out of luck until the fall sometime when coastal storms or those synoptic storms come back. Looking likely to me that places east of NJ where pop up storms are rare will get bumped up to D3 soon.

While the town still allows us to.

We need a larger synoptic system like a tropical storm. These minor frontal passages won’t do it.

An extremely extremely meh event. Had a brief shower that wet the ground, that’s it so far and may be it total.

The rain looks broken/scattered and I doubt many of us even get the 0.5”. Looks like a small part of Ocean County got 2-3” or so.

Not sold on this at least area wide. Models generally look meh especially east of the Hudson. Any rain is more than welcome but outside of a couple lucky spots I doubt it makes any dent.