jm1220

I don't think it's considered landfall until much of the eye is ashore. But a noticeable tick east again.

Much of FL is swamp land so it won't weaken as fast as if it was headed into a mountainous area, but it won't stay cat 4 or 5 for very long since perfect conditions are needed for that. If it speeds up it might stay as a hurricane across the peninsula though. Unfortunately for Charlotte Harbor looks like a worst case track/scenario here. Cape Coral near the edge of the eyewall too and will experience hours of steep water rise. Naples is a good bit further away from the eye and seeing steep rises.

Sanibel/Captiva look to be in the eyewall now. That same water rise will be in Charlotte Harbor shortly.

The surge will come in very rapidly with the eyewall coming onshore. The much higher wind will pile in the water. Soon that same surge is probably coming for Cape Coral as their wind increases/changes direction to more onshore.

Definitely a bit of east movement now. Cape Coral may not be out of the woods getting into the eyewall.

The water would only really come back in like a surge if the wind switches direction to piling the water back in. Unfortunately for places like Charlotte Harbor, that’s where that mound of water is going, along with wherever the east eyewall hits. Tampa will still have a lot of problems from the 20” rain that might be falling there.

Seeing a bit of a move east recently and the eastern eyewall look a little healthier probably helped by friction. This is about to go WAY downhill from Captiva on north.

NE eyewall getting really close to Captiva. Conditions probably going way downhill there. We’ll see soon if that “frictional drag in” theory rings true for SW FL and it turns more NE.

Yes, almost due N movement with a tick east from time to time. Maybe the frictional effects will drag the center or at least eyewall onshore. But that Venice to Punta Gorda area is in huge trouble. Maybe Sarasota if it keeps the due N movement. I wonder if St Pete will have problems later with the N/NE reverse storm surge?

Should be noted too that those surge heights are WITHOUT waves added on top.

Yep-wow. They’re in trouble. Hopefully for them it ticks left. Guess the hordes moving to FL in the last 15 years have to go somewhere.

The slow movement might increase the impact of the winds but the fact so much property is a few feet above sea level is what’s going to be really devastating in these places. Entire towns are literally built around canals in these places, and they’ll be under 15 feet of water.

Ft Myers might not be so bad. It’s the area from Sanibel to maybe Sarasota that’s in line to get wrecked along with any bays/harbors that will funnel water in. Thousands and thousands of homes on tiny canals in that stretch only a few feet above sea level along with plenty of built up beachfront property.

Yep, eyewall looks to be only 15 miles off the beach which is where the extremely strong surge and wind would be. Only a few hours away from Captiva on north.

Wow, certainly wasn’t expected for it to ramp up like this in intensity. Have to think this will be devastating to inland buildings even with the good building codes with this duration of strong winds, and the surge will be horrendous for a wide stretch probably from Ft Myers north. Charlotte Harbor area will be absolutely wrecked, probably much worse than Charley since that was a tiny core. Sarasota area also in for a huge impact with the north jog. Hopefully there can be a bit of a cycle down at least before it makes landfall so it can come in at 140-145 instead of 155. Just wow.

Looks like this EWRC will be completed pretty rapidly. Wonder if it’ll have time to strengthen more/consolidate the new eye before landfall.

It would have to hook NE pretty much to miss Naples/Marco Island to the south which is a stretch.

Probably hoping for a lucky EWRC at this point. The dry air/cool water saving grace wont happen in time.

Lots of inlets and bays too that will funnel the surge. This is gonna be a bad one for a lot of people. Looks like people there are taking it seriously though and getting out.

Extremely symmetrical/well defined eye. Just about picture perfect satellite presentation and definitely primed to go. Fort Myers looking like it’s in a really tough spot. I guess the one hope this doesn’t bring hurt on a lot of people is it somehow keeps trending south past Naples. That whole Tampa to Ft Myers area has exploded in population as others have pointed out, so there’s really no “good” landfall area in that stretch, and it’s also very surge vulnerable especially with a larger storm like this.

Today’s LOL-flooding lake effect rain north of Syracuse. Can’t say I’ve seen flash flood warnings for those before or 4-6” of rain from lake effect streamers. Lakes must be really warm for that to happen.

We had a drought for maybe 2 weeks up here lol. More like an average dry spell.

At this point it’s hard to say. The rainfall boundaries have kept setting up like this over northern NYC and northern LI. From time to time the sea breeze boundaries cause more rain to develop over central/northern LI but it’s been so excessive that it can’t be the overall story.

Yep, looks like the rain is edging north again. It's just unbelievable how persistent this is over months now.

Rain starting up again. I have 1.3-1.5" already by radar estimate. And finally S Nassau getting in on some of the action.