jm1220

Coincided with hostile NAO and AO I think, but again others with better data/insight can elaborate. 97-98 which I remember was just overwhelmed by the Nino and too warm. A few degrees cooler and it would've been a very nice winter since there were plenty of coastal storms. Interior areas did pretty well. I'd rather have the Ninos because often they're the winters that have the massive STJ/Pacific moisture laden blizzards like Jan 2016, PDII in 2003, Feb 1983. The Mar 1993 Superstorm was probably helped by the Nino that year too (though it was a weak Nino). The soul crushing 2/6/10 Nino blizzard just missed us but we still did well that winter.

Wouldn't say they're more common than El Ninos, it seemed like in the 80s and 90s until the major Nina in 98-99, El Nino was a lot more common and we also had the super 82-83 and 97-98 Ninos. Maybe it's a cyclical pattern like the AMO, I'm sure others with more data/expertise can elaborate. But part of it is also where these marine heatwaves set up. When they set up near Indonesia/Australia, they can supercharge any Nina pattern (what drives the Nina isn't just the cool E Pac waters, it's the warm water in the W Pacific) and the hostile MJO phases in winter. That's what killed us in 18-19 and 19-20. So these different factors sometimes amplify and interfere with one another, making older analogs tougher to use. Climate change likely plays a role in these crazy marine heatwaves we're seeing, and they definitely have a huge impact since the amount of heat they transfer to the atmosphere drives the downstream patterns. One interesting more local factor might be what happens as the Greenland ice sheet keeps melting. That's created a cold water pool near Greenland from the melted ice, which might help cause more +NAO patterns. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Yep that would be frigid. Would be nice to get a large snow event then not have to see it all melted in 3 days.

There’s never been an era I can think of where it’s been “easy” to get a Boston to DC big snowstorm. You have the very rare events like PDII in 2003, Blizzard of 1996 along with smaller 6-12” type events like that but there are usually problems with the storm type or overall setup to cause it to favor the Mid Atlantic, New England or neither. If there’s anything I can think of to help, it’s that we have to get this Nina pattern gone which we’ve been stuck with the last several winters. El Niño loaded moist patterns with some blocking are ideal.

My rain will be colder. Woo hoo.

Wow that was Toms River? 12” from 1/29 in Long Beach, 14-15” where I live now. Definitely noticeable jackpot area in SW Suffolk and further east though. Deer Park must’ve had 20”.

To be fair I can’t think of any mets who were calling for this Dec to be very cold and snowy. Unless you’re talking about JB and DT who I just ignore these days.

You have the rare 12/16/20 or 3/14/17 storms that are good there but by and large it’s 1-3 or 2-4” type events. What clippers we still have dry up many times before getting there, lake effect does happen but is very rare when it’s more than a coating, SWFE events usually end up sleet/ZR fests there, coastal storms are too far east etc. They need the bigger miller A events like you said to make it to normal, and now we have way more miller B type storms.

State College is one of the most frustrating places to live for winter weather and their snow average has been decreasing fast over the past 15 years especially since so many storms now blow up on the coast. They every now and again get a bigger 8-12” type storm but generally it’s a few inch Nicole and dimes until they get to 35-45” per year.

The weather in our part of the globe moves from west to east, so ultimately the Pacific drives the outcomes. There are ways the Atlantic can mess things up with a big +NAO or force the pattern to slow down and amplify to give us our bigger snow events, but if we’re drowning in Pacific puke in the never ending assembly line, it doesn’t turn out well.

I’d much rather go into the rest of the winter in a Nina with a decent Dec snowstorm under our belt. Wouldn’t quite say “break out the shorts and flip flops” if we don’t but the odds go way down if it doesn’t happen. Nina’s generally become more hostile the further into winter we go. But supposedly this Nina is on its last legs finally and we have various competing influences so who knows.

NYC: 23” EWR: 26” MMU: 37” ISP: 28” SWF: 44”

The essentially permanent Nina or Nina-like pattern over the past 4 winters doesn’t help. I’m sure AGW plays a role but one of the most definite slam dunks has been the cold NW/ Rockies and mild East which is what’s favored in La Niña. We can make it work in the 2-3 week winter patterns we get but the longer term cold Winter 14-15 like patterns won’t happen until this perma-Nina goes away. We may need a big El Niño to finally force a change.

If some part of the blocking can still be around when we can get the Pacific to cooperate, that’s our shot. It’ll be tough to get anything wintry as long as the continent is flooded with Pacific garbage.

Actually looks quite wintry outside this AM with lots of frost on the ground. Last night was definitely going cold with the low dews and calm wind.

I have no idea how this blocking/storm situation will shake out and hopefully everyone enjoys something out of it, but early/mid Dec is way different from early March WRT marine influence near the coast. Water temp down here is still at 50 and Boston Harbor is at 47. March can be 8-10 degrees colder. It's very difficult to get a heavy all snow event near the coast this time of year and winds are onshore. Early March is way easier since the waters are still cold from the winter. If you can get even 10-15 miles of land to cool down the onshore flow it can make all the difference. Even here on LI from the LI Sound there can be a crazy microclimate where immediately on the LI Sound beaches there is a rain/snow mix or nonaccumulating snow but 2-3 miles inland heavy accumulating snow this time of year when there's a NE or ENE wind. There are numerous early Dec storms where near the NJ shore there is little accumulation and the temps there are stuck in the upper 30s/40s but not far inland west of the coastal front, way higher accums. But if winds can stay offshore and heavy snow, different story.

29" in Huntington where I live now and the death band was 30 miles east.

Initial rain/sleet ruined Nemo for immediate NYC. In Westchester where it was colder, there were many amounts over 20". I remember fuming at waiting for the snow to finally take over in Long Beach, there had to be at least 6-8" wasted. If only that storm could've been 2-3 degrees colder lol. Where I live now got absolutely hammered so I'd be perfectly fine with it here. But the setup wasn't that cold for us leading up to the storm so Central Park ended with 11" instead of the 20+ just 15 miles north. I'm not debbie-downing the pattern that's coming up, but it'll require patience as others said until the block can relax a bit and/or we get some help from the Pacific.

Until something shows up within day 5 it’s tough to get excited about it given the chaotic Pacific patterns we’ve been having over the last 4-5 winters. If the Pacific ends up that much a disaster with the MJO getting stuck in 5-6 it could definitely still ruin it. I’m hopeful at this stage but nowhere near excited yet.

12/26/10 was an amazing event in Long Beach. All out blizzard conditions most of that night. We probably ended with around 18”. We were in heavy snow for most of it but the best banding was to the west.

The best chance we have is as that pattern starts to break down. It could be a cold/dry pattern for a while if we have a shredder -PNA/-NAO and whatever systems come across can’t consolidate. As the block relaxes somewhat is often when something can really amplify and come up the coast. But it can definitely produce if these long range ensembles happen.

I’m hopeful but the chaotic and often contradictory global signals/patterns can result in more changes than what we usually see at day 8-10+. Hopefully we can get this blocked pattern to within day 5.

Part of that was bad luck for NYC with banding that clocked N NJ and the Hudson Valley. But you can see via the 6-8” in Suffolk that it wasn’t the whole story. In Long Beach at the time we ended with a slushy inch or two, tons of white rain. 3/21/18 was way better but still huge difference between Long Beach and where I live now (10” vs 18+).

Torrential rain here as well. Models hinted at these bands/showers popping up after the main show.

It can’t not be Oswego’s turn eventually.