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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    We should still have rain for a while from the moisture coming in from the ocean, but with the low sliding east I think any widespread heavy rain goes with it. We still get these small showers though which locally will bump amounts up. Locally I probably have 1.50” now or so, hopefully I can end over 2”. Unfortunately the south shore mostly looks under 0.5”.
  2. jm1220
    Getting drenched with this small cell passing over.
  3. jm1220
    You can see the low generating now around ACY if not south. The models yesterday that had more rain for LI had that low closer to Asbury Park.
  4. jm1220
    Mod to heavy showers regenerating on the north shore again. I think there is some meso low that has been sparking these. For the south shore it’s not looking good unless this regenerating precip does happen.
  5. jm1220
    LOL wow. Fingers crossed I guess.
  6. jm1220
    Yes-your area into CT and maybe even my area will do fine. It’s the southern LI crew that needed this second batch of rain that probably miss out again.
  7. jm1220
    We’re lucking out again up here. Amazing how this little drought zone just persists. South shore summer drought is a frequent occurrence but this is insane.
  8. jm1220
    I’m thinking this isn’t happening north of I-195. Models have been insisting on this shaft zone since yesterday so looks like that will happen. Notice the heavy rain is consolidating over S NJ not moving north.
  9. jm1220
    Hopefully. We need the heavy rain over S NJ to move NE not E or SE like models are doing.
  10. jm1220
    We'll see how/if this coastal low spins up but if not, the rain will stay where it is. HRRR was paltry for most who haven't gotten rain yet, under an inch east of the city which is essentially nothing in terms of what we need.
  11. jm1220
    As others have said it'll really be a nowcast with how the second low evolves. Hopefully the NAM/GFS are right on it.
  12. jm1220
    In any Nina that really defines whether it’s a winter success or fail here. With no sharp Aleutian ridge we get flooded with Pacific air, with that ridge we get shots of cold air from the pole. Any help from the NAO is also a plus. But any Nina is strongly driven by the Pacific pattern since the jet is often so strong.
  13. jm1220
    Guess it would be fitting for the south shore for the rain to shift from missing to the west/south to the north now.
  14. jm1220
    We’re nowhere close to being too warm for snow in the winters. The main problem we’ll keep having is bad storm tracks when +NAO/AO dominate.
  15. jm1220
    D3 here we come!!
  16. jm1220
    There are so many marine heatwaves that they compete with each other and have often overridden the ENSO signal unless it’s strong. The N Atlantic right now screams +NAO because of the cooler water near Greenland and warm water off the East Coast and Canada, but much of our weather is defined by the Pacific. Hopefully we can finally get out from this Nina background state and develop a good STJ for the winter, that will probably make it better for us vs relying on Miller B storms and +AO often forcing unfavorable tracks.
  17. jm1220
    2002 was a dry/hot summer and 2002-03 was a very good winter but it was also a moderate Nino, this will almost certainly be another Nina. So I think many other factors will determine how good quality the winter will be.
  18. jm1220
    Near the barrier islands, many trees died from saltwater inundation during Sandy. In Long Beach there are very few tall trees anymore, most are newly planted after Sandy. We had a major nor'easter in March 2010 with 75-80mph winds that also destroyed many trees. But what trees there are on the south shore look awful in general this summer.
  19. jm1220
    Color me totally stunned.
  20. jm1220
    Brief shower here with the cell that went through Melville.
  21. jm1220
    Radar says maybe 0.50” there. It was tiny and flew by. Enough to make some puddles and that’s it, wayyy more needed.
  22. jm1220
    Long Beach might actually get a T-storm, it’ll be close. Fingers crossed.
  23. jm1220
    Tons of dry air being funneled into the Atlantic from the Sahara for one thing, and also increased shear. Nina usually reduces the shear.
  24. jm1220
    91 here. Thankfully dewpoints are low.
  25. jm1220
    Radar estimating 3-4” in Greenlawn/E Northport this afternoon.
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