jm1220

One thing for sure, temps are outperforming even with all the clouds and onshore flow. Mid to high 70s once again.

If we can keep winds from a westerly direction late week we should be off to the races. Probably mid 90s in the hotter areas given how hot the source region is. But we need the ridge to make a good push east or the threat of the back door front will be around. If the trough keeps getting stuck over the Maritimes you can never count on extended warmth this time of year. But two straight weeks pretty much of easterly winds have to come to an end. Right?

Gotta love the perma-Nina.

This is always good to improve the mood on a day like today. Although I missed it by living in Austin, TX at the time.

Woo-freaking-hoo.

Yep, this would be a NYC blockbuster if it could've been a few months ago. We already have the mid-storm bust proclamations. This is how the biggest snowstorms in NYC happen-massive wall of moisture that we're on the right side of and winning the Russian Roulette game vs. sharp confluence and slow moving. This will be a 24 hour rain event and great for the water table. We need to add that up for the inevitable LI dry summer period.

If the sun can come out we'll be good for mid 60s most likely, but the mid 70s and higher will have to wait until we can start a westerly flow. NE wind won't allow it to get higher than mid 60s here and likely mostly cloudy/periods of low clouds.

Maybe not Seattle but probably somewhere north of our latitude. We're becoming much more Carolina like in the summers due to the distorted north ridge. Temps there are regularly in the mid 90s with oppressive humidity. Near the center of the ridge where westerly flow can be sustained is where the over 100 heat would be.

Still have quite a ways to go with this, at least 12 more hours. HRRR still has the rain going and mod-heavy at that around noon-1pm. Rain totals over the city appear to be 0.7" or so, with the rain expected most of us from I-80 S should be over 2" by the end.

Yup. Like you said I guess it saves on the water bill. You can see the rain get squashed down every time it tries to push N into CT. This is some tough confluence. It’s been a nice day north of I-90 and quite low dew point air.

Brick wall is in place. Not far north of here the dew points are around 30 and the confluence is pressing down. This would be a widespread 20” snowstorm like a 1/23/16 or PDII if it could’ve happened in February. Grrrrr

The displaced north subtropical ridge also puts us at higher risk for tropical systems. A further south ridge allows them to recurve earlier. The ridge pointed north prevents that and causes more Henri/Isaias type tracks.

Might be like a wave crashing in from the NW. It'll definitely be enjoyable when it finally does get here.

LGA has been really unlucky due to the NE breeze off the sound they sometimes get. It’s been above 75 IMBY several times now.

Once this cutoff is finally gone and we can establish westerly flow, we’re probably off to the races into summer. However we still have to watch how much of a trough lingers over the Maritimes. If that stays, high pressure will build to our NE and promote more back door fronts nearby.

Models bumping back south for the upcoming rain. I-84 corridor may be dry for the most part. Crazy that in early May we’re still dealing with strong confluence and dry air brick walls. This would be a 20” storm easy south of the brick wall if it was 2 months ago. Now it’s just wind driven cold misery.

The cutoff is slowed down a lot on the latest guidance as Bluewave pointed out. It ruins at least into Sun and likely keeps clouds/cool maritime air into Mon.

Really hoping it's somehow wrong. It has days of easterly garbage around the cutoff low vomited into our region but a nice warmup for NNE, maybe even north of there. Unfortunately it has support.

And it will generally stay that way until the trough NE of us/blocking can finally go away. On the latest Euro there's an easterly component to the wind essentially through the entire run. Maritime garbage on top of trash.

Crappy NE back door flow days don’t lend themselves to many posts. Unfortunately the writing was on the wall for this one. It’s been a feature of the last several Nina springs.

The storm probably washed away the pollen/allergens. Agree, hopefully that continues at least.

Yeah that trough over the Maritimes needs to be gone. Pronto. We’re likely below average until then.

For NJ it might not be too bad. East of the city these back door patterns are often raw and full of stratus. Hopefully not. And hopefully it can be short lived and the blocking is over done.

Looks like 2” for LGA and Central Park. Some of the short range models were showing a 2” area there and there was a local heavy rain band that parked overhead. Winds also gusted >50 over LI.

12” reported near BGM. If this was a month earlier there would be widespread 2 feet in upstate NY. As is there will probably be a decent number of 15” reports near where that crazy deform band parked. This is another example of how coastal storms mature later now. Heavy amounts in NE PA near the Poconos and upstate NY but not back into Central PA. It dryslots there too soon in these storms and the deform band forms too late/east. There are likely 6” or so amounts in high elevations there. Also some bad luck with it falling during daylight.