jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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The south shore was able to get up to 34 while we were stuck at 30 up here. If it was 2 degrees colder during the heavy precip I doubt I’d have power right now since the heavier ZR ran off. The LIE is where the topography changes and becomes much more hilly to the north, so cold air can hang on tougher.
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Some photos just taken. The ice is slowly starting to melt off so I think we're just above freezing.
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That was always an iffy area even though maybe up to Albany might’ve gotten shafted. The I-84 area was always on the bubble and lost out from the inevitable warmer trend at the mid levels on these.
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Temp ticking up to 31 now. The ice accretion helps it warm up-the freezing process releases heat. Seeing the heavier rain run off but most surfaces here are totally iced up.
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Every model I can think of had it above freezing from the city on east and it’s 29 here now. I don’t think any model ‘won’ on surface temps. Mid levels I would think the Nam won? As usual that part was undermodeled.
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Wherever you are hopefully that’ll be us soon. Much more ice here and power outages will start to become a problem.
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Some sleet but mostly ZR here with this batch. Ice is thickening up on branches and some are sagging a little. Total icy mess. Temp 29.
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As usual. The warm push in the mid levels is almost always under modeled and the Euro is often too cold.
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That was good. It’s why we shouldn’t go based on those ZR accumulation models. If it’s 30-31 and heavy rain it mostly runs off not accrete.
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Coating of sleet on the ground, with a decent glaze on trees/cold surfaces. Freezing drizzle continuing, temp 31.
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NWS down to a coating-1 inch for the city and anyone on LI before the washout. So I guess the advisory's for the possible glaze of ice? I hate SWFEs, the one in 10 that miraculously work out here aren't worth my interest. They're climo-reminder, rich get richer gradient storms. Screw that. And they have the Lucy raising the football last second north trends too.
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Could be -20 right now. When winds switch to easterly it won’t matter and it’ll warm right up near the coast. That’s our problem.
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Very brief snow to couple hours of sleet to rain for us. I’m thinking an inch or two of crud mostly gone at the end.
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Ice definitely, I-84 and anyone inland more than a few miles NW of the city won’t get any plain rain. But snow looks focused along I-90. It’s where these usually end up.
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It’s the usual SWFE last minute north push. This has been well behaved for one of these. Not much changes for us other than what falls initially probably washing away. Around I-84 might get cut back for accums a good amount from the north push, that was the area hoping the south trend was real.
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With the last minor ice event it was 31 and accreting pretty efficiently with little snow left from the 1/29 storm here but that was with light precip. Heavier precip will tend to run off.
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RGEM looked essentially the same to me. Be careful about the freezing rain output, it's likely overdone. Any precip as rain 32 or below it'll show as ZR (won't all accrete) and it assumes all precip that hour will be ZR. Of course it won't take much ZR for major problems though. A lot of that ZR it shows will hopefully be sleet.
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For a shot at more snow we have to watch the primary and hope it dies off sooner, and the associated mid level lows-hopefully those weaken. That will slow the mid level warm push. But it's a very long shot at it being more than an hour or so at the start. The real chance we have is for it to be more sleet and for the surface warm push to wait until the dryslot is here.
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Getting there but still a ways to go before being at consensus. Still spikes most of us from the Tappan Zee on south into the 40s on Fri because of how dominant the primary is/where the secondary forms. But that would be in the dryslot after 95% of precip falls. Verbatim it would be a few inches of slop that would freeze solid on Fri night.
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The Nam is different aloft with its evolution, especially with the S/W so far north which moves all the features north. It’s probably too amped but the Euro is probably too cold. I’ve seen it before with SWFEs be too cold. But again no one should be shocked at late 50 mile shifts with this. These usually tick north at the end. For NYC it’s really all about how soon and where the secondary pops for the surface wind direction. It could be all sleet if we avoid an onshore wind.
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This has been pretty well forecast for days now. There’ll be 50 mile or so shifts at this range for any system but it’s been clear for several days this would be a crud/slop system for NYC and heavy snow well north. Not much anxiety with this one unlike the 1/29 storm/blizzard for LI.
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I’d bet it’s too cold in this setup. I think the best hope the city has is that it can stay all sleet instead of a period where it turns to rain or ZR. The warm mid level air is often under modeled in SWFEs and I’ve seen the Euro be too cold in these before. But it’s possible the coastal low can develop a little sooner and prevent the surface from warming above freezing. Mid levels though will be too late.
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66 here. Downright balmy. Merrick Rd seems to be the balmy to just mild line. Barrier islands are in the mid 50s.
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Pretty much anyone along I-90 should be good for well over 6”. The best place to be may be eastern Mass since they could get some enhancement from the Atlantic. This is a Boston bread and butter storm where it could mix with a little sleet at the end but by then damage is more than done.
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Upton seems to have 2-5" outside the watch area which might be a little aggressive. I don't see anyone south of I-84 getting over 5" but the watch extends down to just N of NYC and the immediate CT coast. Where I am and most of NYC it'll probably be 2-3" of crud partly washed away at the end and the south shore/I-78 an inch or two that gets washed away at the end.
