jm1220
-
Posts
26,312 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by jm1220
-
If we have that 1040 high for it to ram into, game on for at least a good front ender.
-
I’m up to maybe 3.5”. Yep-pretty lame. Still have some hope this can amp up to a 3-5” deal.
-
Temp starting to drop, I’m down to 29 with light freezing rain. Decent glaze on trees/my car. Pavement thankfully is wet.
-
Having snow on snow for the first time since Feb 2021 will be a treat. And definitely some upside potential with a few NW ticks.
-
If we’re getting any flip back to snow, this batch in E NJ should clip most of the island and hopefully a wintry ending.
-
Yep, here comes the crash.
-
Curious to see if we get a brief flip back to snow later. Since winds never turned easterly we didn’t warm up. Not a fan of this lighter precip which will accrete better.
-
I have about 2.5”. Temp still stuck at 30-31 which I’m thinking is about as high as I’ll get.
-
If we can get snow on snow to build up a snowpack it would be great. Hopefully the late NW trends can benefit for a change.
-
It’s also lighter rain so it’s accreting more efficiently. Heavier rain would run off.
-
Yep. Honestly it may not get any higher at all and we’re accreting. Models have temps dropping starting around 1pm.
-
Even Long Beach on the extreme S Shore of Nassau still at 32 so no melting and maybe some accreting. We have a few hours before the crash begins.
-
Usually the story with models-underestimate mid level warmth and overestimate surface warmth. On a NE wind we won’t budge. The freezing rain releases some warmth into the air through the droplets freezing but without WAA at the surface we’d just get up to 33. Roads later will be awful.
-
Latest HRRR doesn’t really get NW Suffolk, N Nassau into the city above freezing. May touch 33 very briefly. By 3-4pm temps start crashing behind the front and maybe a brief flip back to snow.
-
If we keep NE wind we won’t rise much if at all. Seems to be a coastal front near the twin forks where temps are in the upper 30s, let’s see if that can make headway west.
-
Right-some sleet and rain at 33-34 will just mean it all hardens into cement later today. I doubt we lose much unless it gets to like 37-38 which I doubt.
-
I highly doubt it. HRRR has freezing rain for a while here but at 32 if it’s heavy a lot would just run off. We have that issue with the easterly wind we normally have but it may just get to 33-34 which would melt off very little.
-
Might not be the worst thing to preserve the snow for some sleet/rain to freeze into it later. And yes roads will likely be worse later with a crash freeze into the teens.
-
The late amped trends may be helpful this time. Need to see the trough deepen and S/W amplify but thankfully that’s a trend we almost always see. Question is if it’ll be enough.
-
SE Suffolk might be freezing rain now based on CC. Nasty.
-
Mix is just south of the LIE and probably hits as the snow slackens off.
