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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Good thing in 256 hours/10-11 days we can lock that up.
  2. jm1220
    NYC, NJ and northern half of LI-absolutely. There’s essentially no drought where I am. South shore got fringed by all this rain and is still way behind average. If we’re back into the upper 80s and 90s again soon, the ground will be bone dry again down there as soon as that starts.
  3. jm1220
    At this point you just have to laugh. Probably 1” here maybe a little under. Way more about 20 mins west of me.
  4. jm1220
    90-95% of it’s been sheet drizzle here. Something like a light rain shower now. We have a shot at something more significant tomorrow night but otherwise this will likely be another snoozer for coastal areas.
  5. jm1220
    As with anything this summer I'll believe it when I see it for places in the drought. Models are fairly encouraging though for once.
  6. jm1220
    Usual correction to dry coastal areas/wet inland coming?
  7. jm1220
    If anything it should be D3 south of the Southern State and D0 if anything north of the Northern State/LIE. You look at the grass/trees here and it’s like any normal summer. But the south shore literally looks charred.
  8. jm1220
    And the highest totals weren’t even captured in N Suffolk. Greenlawn had up to 4” with the stationary shower band. It was a mild drought up here that’s likely over now. Totally different than just 20 min drive south of me.
  9. jm1220
    About 2” here total. Down to sheet drizzle so barring anything crazy we all have what we’re getting from this one. Not sure what 0.5” or so will do for vegetation but hopefully it helps a little in the shaft zone.
  10. jm1220
    Heavy rain here again with the edge of this band.
  11. jm1220
    Radar estimating 3-4" in Greenlawn/Elwood again.
  12. jm1220
    That band's parked just NE of me, like walking distance far away. Exact same area getting nailed as 2 weeks ago.
  13. jm1220
    If any place ‘busted’ I would say coastal NJ did. Models had the low throwing back more rain there. Looks like a relatively small area in S NJ did well. The screw zone for LI was becoming apparent for the last 24 hrs.
  14. jm1220
    We should still have rain for a while from the moisture coming in from the ocean, but with the low sliding east I think any widespread heavy rain goes with it. We still get these small showers though which locally will bump amounts up. Locally I probably have 1.50” now or so, hopefully I can end over 2”. Unfortunately the south shore mostly looks under 0.5”.
  15. jm1220
    Getting drenched with this small cell passing over.
  16. jm1220
    You can see the low generating now around ACY if not south. The models yesterday that had more rain for LI had that low closer to Asbury Park.
  17. jm1220
    Mod to heavy showers regenerating on the north shore again. I think there is some meso low that has been sparking these. For the south shore it’s not looking good unless this regenerating precip does happen.
  18. jm1220
    LOL wow. Fingers crossed I guess.
  19. jm1220
    Yes-your area into CT and maybe even my area will do fine. It’s the southern LI crew that needed this second batch of rain that probably miss out again.
  20. jm1220
    We’re lucking out again up here. Amazing how this little drought zone just persists. South shore summer drought is a frequent occurrence but this is insane.
  21. jm1220
    I’m thinking this isn’t happening north of I-195. Models have been insisting on this shaft zone since yesterday so looks like that will happen. Notice the heavy rain is consolidating over S NJ not moving north.
  22. jm1220
    Hopefully. We need the heavy rain over S NJ to move NE not E or SE like models are doing.
  23. jm1220
    We'll see how/if this coastal low spins up but if not, the rain will stay where it is. HRRR was paltry for most who haven't gotten rain yet, under an inch east of the city which is essentially nothing in terms of what we need.
  24. jm1220
    As others have said it'll really be a nowcast with how the second low evolves. Hopefully the NAM/GFS are right on it.
  25. jm1220
    In any Nina that really defines whether it’s a winter success or fail here. With no sharp Aleutian ridge we get flooded with Pacific air, with that ridge we get shots of cold air from the pole. Any help from the NAO is also a plus. But any Nina is strongly driven by the Pacific pattern since the jet is often so strong.
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