jm1220

Well at least this time you’d be somewhat prepared. Models keyed in on eastern Suffolk and MA/RI for quite a while.

Nassau/Suffolk line in that one was about 18”. My home town of Long Beach had about 15”. I had zero because I was living in Austin TX at the time.

Thanks as always Don. I think 1/27/15 has been the top analog to this storm for a while now. Very similar evolution by the looks of it. Maybe we can luck out and nudge the action a little west of where that ended up.

RGEM looks about the exact same to me from 6z. Any changes over the last 4 runs have been noise. So no further east shift there.

My call: Eastern 2/3 of Suffolk (roughly Rt 112 on east): 16-24". If there's an area that can get over 24" it would be around the William Floyd Parkway I think. This also includes CT east of New Haven (east of I-91). There too a lucky band can get someone over 24". West of Rt 112 to around the Van Wyck Expressway in Queens, SW CT, Jersey Shore: 10-16" NYC west of the Van Wyck, along to 20mi west of I-95 in E NJ, Rockland/Westchester: 6-10" West of there to the DE River in NJ, up to I-84 in NY: 3-6" NW of there: Under 3" I may be underestimating the cutoff to the west in which case the amounts in W NJ and upstate NY would be high but it looks like initial WAA snow should help and ratios should be good. Euro would have me go a little higher in the 10-16" area, maybe 14-18" but will wait on that and iffy especially if this double barreled low crap does happen. Overall a significant event near the city to major over LI and E CT.

I would relax over the NAM. Just like you can't dive in when it shows 20" west of NYC, you can't dive into it now. Let's see what other models show.

It went from a foot of snow for most of the area to complete out to sea in 1 run two days ago. It's a very delicate setup as others noted. If this double barrel low idea is overplayed or not real, it'll be better and more consolidated west. There's plenty of dynamics coming in to try to make that happen. The 6z was eye candy. I guess it's still possible but it was definitely an outlier. I'm much more encouraged by the Euro ticking west at 6z. 1" liquid to NYC and 1.5" almost to JFK.

The double barrel may or may not be accurate here. It may be a nowcast situation with that. But of course we’d want as little of that as possible so the low can consolidate west.

Not a surprise that the Nam ticked east. The 6z depiction to me was insane. But for LI, probably NYC too it changes nothing.

First pixie dust flakes here in Huntington Station. Fun times ahead!!

Yep. The one concern may be the dry slot getting close to eastern areas/the forks of the west trend continues. But mostly it’ll be about subsidence and heavy snow with the bands. There’ll be lucky and unlucky people as always.

If home for you is Long Island I’d say yes.

I think for at least Nassau and Suffolk they’ll be up soon or at least Upton’s next update. And amounts probably going up!

Wow at the Euro. Continues to tick slightly better evolution aloft. Looks very close to the Nam last night (not the probably overdone 6z). That would suggest 18” amounts are possible even in Nassau County and 12” to Manhattan.

RAP 9z. No I'm not posting the inflated Kuchera map. You can find that yourselves.

RAP at 9z which goes out to 51 hours was nuts as well, similar to the NAM but 30 miles east with the heavy snow. For what that's worth-probably not much since it's a short range model. Hi-res RGEM got a little weaker/further east from last run. Models may still be having issues with the possible double barreled low and working with convection (doesn't mean it isn't real or hallucination).

Maybe. Some time still for minor trends but the NAM is so ridiculously more developed with the 500mb low and how far west it pushes everything that it doesn't seem feasible. I wouldn't trust it until other models get on board. I could see the Euro doing another 25 mile shift or something but not to that.

6z GFS is about the same as 0z. Tiny differences which are noise to me. NAM has to be regarded as an outlier here and off its meds.

That NAM is nice to look at but it's known to do these wacky things. RGEM actually looks a little weaker/SE with the precip at 6z but looks impressive aloft. That NAM run is an absolute thing of beauty though, good lord.

NYC area/SW CT will do just fine with this. For 3-4 days it's been on the wall that this would be an eastern New England focused storm. A foot maybe in NYC is nothing to sneeze at. And there are often surprises on the western QPF gradient.

30" will definitely happen somewhere, maybe a small swath from central/eastern Suffolk into CT and MA. I still think the best of the event will be around the Boston area down through eastern CT/central and east Suffolk but it will be very impressive to just over the Hudson. The one NAM run can't be taken lock stock and barrel when Euro essentially is an 18z carbon copy. Actually the model that may support the furthest west outcome in terms of banding may be the GFS tonight.

There won't be 40" in Boston. The Kuchera maps are way overdone for most. But I do think it supports 2 feet where banding is most persistent.

I don't have access to 18z free maps but comparing to 12z the Euro definitely looked a little better. Nice more compact closed low that we could still use closing off a couple hours earlier but two closed contours E of Montauk. 700mb also looks better to me, less sloppy.

Yeah, seeing posts saying it ticked west. Keep that coming por favor. I don't have access to free maps, hopefully the upper air looks better too.

Who knows what'll happen. I'm sure there will be some kind of surprise with this. Often the west edge of the heavy QPF has a heavy deformation band. If I get 12-15" I'll be beyond happy.