jm1220

Pros said time and again this is a fickle setup and we're threading a needle, don't get hyped up. I said coming into this season I wouldn't bite on anything unless we're within 72hrs. This pattern is serviceable for a good NYC snow storm but as Don pointed out, it's not classic by any means. So we're seeing the pattern reflect the outcome possibly. This winter, take whatever you can get from a snow event and run with it. My average is probably ~32-33"/winter and I'm at less than 1/3 that total with Jan almost over.

East of Riverhead is good for 15"+ likely. I'm modestly optimistic NYC makes it to warning level. There's usually a westernmost band in these that can make for surprise high amounts. I'd only really worry at this point if you were hyped on sky high amounts west of Riverhead or if you're well NW of the city, like west of I-287. I'd be more than happy with a 6-10" type event this winter where other than one lucky event we've gotten diddly.

10:1 ratio Euro map.

If the N stream can become more amplified and dive in faster, it might cancel this out to some extent. I agree the best outcome is for that southern energy to phase, but there might be an escape hatch with the better northern stream. The southern energy trailing behind isn't great but it could still be salvageable.

If you're convinced it's over please stop posting in this thread. If you want to whine/scream go to the banter thread if it's not too ridiculous. The whining posts will get deleted.

N stream looks better and might help save the day. Please let the run play out and check yourself out if you're on the "storm cancel" train. Those doors have closed and it's on the express out of the station lol.

Happens pretty often with ocean systems like these actually.

If expectations are for amounts similar to what we had for earlier this month's storm, sure. That's about what I'd predict for us now. Of course if we get the better phase and shift NW at the end it could be significantly more. But Euro/NAM have a big asterisk for now given all the other guidance.

GGEM was a step down from 0z but not a disaster I'd say from the city east. Looks like 3" in Central Park, 5-6" where I am to 8-10" over the forks using the 10-1 map. Even some minor snow NW of the city. UKMET while still lousy was much better at 12z than last night. Accumulating snow gets into the city, about 5" for me, amounts reach 12" for the forks. These actually match the GFS output pretty well. Definitely plausible if we delay the phase/keep the trough progressive and don't close off. But 50 mile adjustment NW from these would still be a very nice event for many of us and that's also definitely possible.

This has always been described as a thread the needle system. We don’t have much help from the Atlantic side. We’re relying on the departing Canada high and Atlantic ridge really as a quasi-block. Bluewave described this well. We just have to hope the models are underselling the speed of the southern stream because that phase is the ballgame for 90% of us. And unfortunately the Euro’s been slowing that down over the last few runs too. It’s found ways to still bury us with late shifts but we need that trend to stop/reverse.

There's time for recovery later today/tonight/tomorrow but have to admit GFS/CMC aren't what we wanted at 12z. Progressive late/delayed phase will likely be a meh outcome for those of us west of Riverhead or New Haven CT.

Verbatim the GFS starts ramping amounts up east of me from where it's like 4-5" in MBY to 8-10" over the forks. I think the forks are in for at least a very solid event. Me hopefully a decent event near the Nassau border and west of NYC sweating these changes. But it's annoying how it keeps leaving the energy behind and delaying the phase. Hard to see how it can end well for most of us if that happens. Maybe it's a bias at play but the Euro/NAM also notoriously overamp these. It's all about how fast and fully the streams phase. Delayed/late phase and we're dealing with what I described.

Weird outcome or not I wouldn’t jump on the Euro/Nam solutions until the GFS shifts west. Just way too risky. I don’t like how it leaves the energy behind out west. We have to make up serious ground from the northern stream because of that and by the time it would happen it would probably be too late and be a benefit for E MA instead. It’s not quite put up or shut up time but by tonight we’d be getting to that point. Time for the east models to start shifting west/amped if we really want to bite.

This won't be a situation where the QPF is overdone. The moisture coming into this storm will be absurd if the capture/partial stall really does happen. I definitely see 30" happening somewhere in a scenario like that. Of course if it's progressive and doesn't happen that'll be overstated.

Can't trust either the RGEM or NAM yet. Looking forward to hopefully an improvement on the GFS. Doesn't have to show a bomb quite yet but definitely want an improvement.

It did much better with phasing in the southern stream. And that happens early in the run. The ridge position to me out west also tells me that it has room to come west. It’s really all about how progressive the trough is. The good phase puts a stop to it and bombs the low in a perfect spot.

This would just be epic from central MA down through Suffolk and good snow west of there into NYC still. And this is the last panel of the run when 20"+ fell already from NYC east. Again DON'T get too excited about it since it's the NAM but it shows the potential somewhere if the phasing does happen/close off in the right place.

And at 84hr when those totals are shown, it's still snowing heavily from the city on east. Huge deform band over central LI. 966mb essentially on top of the benchmark.

The GFS started a recovery back west at 6z. Hopefully that continues.

I have no idea. It’s also the Nam which can flop around more than a freshly caught fluke. But it’s good to see it better with the phase and upper air evolution than not.

Back to annihilation on the Nam. 500 low closes off in a great spot. Would be well over a foot easy from the city on east.

It's impossible to jump on with the Euro until others do as well. The GGEM was closest but not quite as epic. I want to see the GFS get better with closing off the low sooner in future runs. It did just get upgraded. I can't really think of a standout model this winter so far, maybe the GGEM's done best?

Hopefully this is the stage where we can start taking the Op more seriously vs the EPS. Still I have to think the 6z is overdone somewhat unless other models make a jump west at 12z.

It's something we're used to here with these ocean storms. Sometimes we get a rabbit out of the hat like 1/4/18 and Boxing Day 2010 and sometimes we have a Juno 2015 or mid-March 2018 that just misses NYC or grazes. These often do well here but it's not a 'wheelhouse storm' the way it is for Boston. To my east near the twin forks look to get crushed for sure. The GFS did get better at 6z and at least has me now 30 miles east of Central Park at a warning event, GGEM was solid and Euro if anything got better and demolishes 90% of the metro area. If the Euro fails this bad after the last 4-5 straight runs have over 12" into NYC it should just be a laughingstock. But it's been known to overdo/overamp this type of storm. You can probably translate the NYC 'tough call' down to the far eastern parts of this subforum like DE/eastern MD but hopefully the more amped models do have a clue here. And maybe there'll be a good surprise for DC too.

Oh for sure. As soon as you see that 500mnb map you know we get buried. We have that look or close to that look and we're in for a monster.