jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Sea breeze front near Sunrise Highway, crawling north. Some stations near the front hit 90.
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As long as winds stay W or NW humidity shouldn’t be too big a deal but temps will be hotter on that wind direction so it probably all evens out. We wont have a problem hitting 90 today.
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Feels way better outside than it’s been. Enjoying it when I can.
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Keep watering!
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If any model did well RGEM probably won but I chalk that to a broken clock being right once. It was clearly a nowcast setup and what we needed didn’t happen for 90% of us. Cheers to those who did get deluged on the east end.
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And the 7-8 runs after that blasted us. Up to 21z I believe it was still giving 3-5” of rain almost island wide.
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Successful would’ve been something that could dent our drought, and for 90% of us east of the city we didn’t come close to that.
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90-95% of the island had under an inch. I still consider this overall a fail. Models generally had widespread much higher amounts.
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Keep watering!
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I was out in that area yesterday. Would never expect they’d be the area to get nailed on LI. Looks like ISP ended with 0.49”. I probably ended with something similar-just two moderate showers early and the period of moderate rain around 11pm.
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Said now many times-set expectations low to rock bottom on any interesting LI weather in the summer.
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And what a joke performance by the HRRR. Disaster by that model but others had widespread 1-3” here. That’ll be a total fail. Drought continues. Lawns are parched/burnt for many and most near the south shore/east end now.
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Raining moderately. It’ll rinse my car off, that’s about it. Maybe it adds up to 0.2” in the end?
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Whatever this stuff is looks like it’s all LI’s getting. Maybe east of the William Floyd gets clipped by these T-storms. And my luck-the broken part of it looks headed for my backyard.
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HRRR has us getting 3-5”. Might be totally wrong, like I said it’ll be a nowcast situation. If this falling apart line is all there is and we don’t see more convection firing, we’ll know which was right. So far I had two moderate showers that maybe brought .05”.
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I would just watch the radar and see what happens. Obviously if HRRR is wrong right now it’s likely wrong 12 hours from now.
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HRRR blasts LI later tonight but it’s laughably wrong with what’s happening right now over NJ. I think anything we see or don’t east of the city is really a nowcast situation to see if this wave/convection forms.
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Storms seem to be making headway east over DE, hopefully that persists. There’s a shot here east of the city this time. But the storms probably wouldn’t be training over this area so we’d probably get 1-2” but it’s hugely welcome.
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If the trigger to make convection dies out so does the convection. The wave/low needs to happen to keep the hope alive east of the city. I hope for the NW crew it dies down but we could really use what’s over the Delmarva now to survive to this area. A few heavy showers won’t cut it.
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Looks like a heavier shower about to hit, coming up Rt 110.
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Basically a few sprinkles here in the marine layer soup but heavier showers are starting to pop. Hopefully for you guys north and west this line shifts east later. We definitely can use it here.
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Not sure about that but 5”+ definitely possible where the storms are training. West of Philly already has over 3” by radar estimate and I-476 to Allentown’s getting crushed.
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The wave along the front scenario would probably bring the rain in and out quicker too so there wouldn't be a lot of time to ramp up the totals east of the city. It wouldn't be like today where we're already seeing training T-storms over the same people that got it the last 2 weeks.
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The constant S wind is good for driving up the water temp. Offshore winds promote upwelling. Also why our dewpoints are going so much higher and the seabreeze doesn't deliver relief anymore-just more humidity.
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If this wave/low happens, we can finally get a widespread 1-2” east of the city. If we’re just relying on activity along the front, we’ll get very little and NJ/Hudson Valley get slammed again. It’ll be a nowcast situation. Either way I doubt given how dry it’s been that there would be much flooding east of the city besides some on roads here/there if the rain is heavy.
