jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Something like the 6z GFS would be ideal for most of our area. Something to keep in mind too is that this is something of a late bloomer, so the mid level lows are taking shape as it goes by. The storm will likely be worse QPF-wise anyway over SNE. But it'll still be a decent to good event for whoever can stay all snow.
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NAM might be over amped, it usually has one or two crazy runs, but today and tonight will be interesting to see if it keeps coming west in general. Obviously a track over LI won’t be good for anyone east of NYC.
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Haven’t had a chance to look at the mid level lows yet but yes you definitely want the various mid level lows to track south of you. If they track north of you it means mid level warm air will be a problem along with a dry slot.
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It’s a vigorous S/W and sharpening trough so it definitely could keep going west and end up more of an inland event. If the 850 low goes north of you which WDrag mentioned, that’s almost never good for big snow amounts in your area and indicates there’ll be a good deal of mixing.
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This looks like a decent enough setup and odds are better that the trough can amp better than this last one just did, but given how chaotic things are this winter in the fast pattern we have, it's almost impossible to get excited about a potential over 72hrs out.
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https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?zoom=8&lat=39.58&lon=-74.98&hr=48
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Airport finished with 12.9". Numerous reports in that area down to Cape May of up to 14".
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In other news, down to 23 now. Likely down into the teens soon.
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Too bad we can’t shovel what falls at the 10000 ft or whatever level that radar beam crosses our area. There was no crazy confluence here today but plenty of dry low and mid level air. Soundings were brutal and made it obvious those GFS snow maps were way overdone.
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Amounts near the airport seem to be around 12” so that’s likely what they have. Last measurement was at 1pm when it was still S+.
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Essentially one page per snowflake I saw today.
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Suppression sucks.
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Still some piece of the last snow band trying to work it’s way into S Nassau.
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Dry air moving back in according to radar. At least for us I think this is done. Hamptons have a little ways to go.
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Still some mod to heavy banding in that area. Wonder if they have a shot at 12”?
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Seems like the dry air really won out from Philly on north. It’s why it’s better to look at soundings which showed the dry layer than the overaggressive snow maps in most cases.
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Some graupel and flurries here.
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Looks like a burst enough to maybe cover the ground coming for areas Rt 112 and east. Hamptons/Montauk might walk away with 1-3” after all.
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Finally a couple of flakes here. Looks like some decent snow may make it to Captree/Fire Island.
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Looks like a band might be forming over the south fork. Other than that, yet to see one flake where I am like most everyone else.
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The March 2019 storm was a disappointment. I think at the end it trended north and many of us were supposed to get 6-12”, ended up with a few inches or slush while Boston got crushed.
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The GFS is bonkers, and it’s had this issue in the past where it prints out snow where the air is too dry.
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I’d say it’s now or never for us getting snow for NYC/LI. Snow is shifting east in the DC area. Unfortunately the issue isn’t only surface dry air, there’s also dry air aloft that’s hurting our chances.
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Wouldn’t surprise me if they end up with 12” down there. Very nice event down in S NJ.
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The upper air flow is too zonal. Despite that given the zonal pattern the storm is being forced out.
