jm1220

RAP at 9z which goes out to 51 hours was nuts as well, similar to the NAM but 30 miles east with the heavy snow. For what that's worth-probably not much since it's a short range model. Hi-res RGEM got a little weaker/further east from last run. Models may still be having issues with the possible double barreled low and working with convection (doesn't mean it isn't real or hallucination).

Maybe. Some time still for minor trends but the NAM is so ridiculously more developed with the 500mb low and how far west it pushes everything that it doesn't seem feasible. I wouldn't trust it until other models get on board. I could see the Euro doing another 25 mile shift or something but not to that.

6z GFS is about the same as 0z. Tiny differences which are noise to me. NAM has to be regarded as an outlier here and off its meds.

That NAM is nice to look at but it's known to do these wacky things. RGEM actually looks a little weaker/SE with the precip at 6z but looks impressive aloft. That NAM run is an absolute thing of beauty though, good lord.

NYC area/SW CT will do just fine with this. For 3-4 days it's been on the wall that this would be an eastern New England focused storm. A foot maybe in NYC is nothing to sneeze at. And there are often surprises on the western QPF gradient.

30" will definitely happen somewhere, maybe a small swath from central/eastern Suffolk into CT and MA. I still think the best of the event will be around the Boston area down through eastern CT/central and east Suffolk but it will be very impressive to just over the Hudson. The one NAM run can't be taken lock stock and barrel when Euro essentially is an 18z carbon copy. Actually the model that may support the furthest west outcome in terms of banding may be the GFS tonight.

There won't be 40" in Boston. The Kuchera maps are way overdone for most. But I do think it supports 2 feet where banding is most persistent.

I don't have access to 18z free maps but comparing to 12z the Euro definitely looked a little better. Nice more compact closed low that we could still use closing off a couple hours earlier but two closed contours E of Montauk. 700mb also looks better to me, less sloppy.

Yeah, seeing posts saying it ticked west. Keep that coming por favor. I don't have access to free maps, hopefully the upper air looks better too.

Who knows what'll happen. I'm sure there will be some kind of surprise with this. Often the west edge of the heavy QPF has a heavy deformation band. If I get 12-15" I'll be beyond happy.

I would be too if I was you (I'm looking forward to it also but my odds are still a little less than yours IMO). You have a really good chance at seeing 20".

I'd be pretty stunned if there aren't 20"+ amounts out there. Prime area is probably Rt 112 to near Riverhead.

GFS also should have shown considerably more than it did given how it has 2 closed 500mb low contours SE of Long Island. I think that would be a foot easy from NYC east. I think the whole Island should be good for 12+. NYC is on the bubble, I'd say 8-12" there-8" Bronx 12" Rockaway. Still need another west push.

A bit?

Way out of its range but entertaining at least.

Or over Sayreville, NJ like for Boxing Day 2010 lol. I'd still say the best chance for it is central/eastern Suffolk County but there'll be plenty of heavy snow west of it.

Looks good, similar to what it seemed to have at 18z. 1" liquid starting around NYC maybe, no huge death band shown though unlike the NAM/Euro it seems. Similar to RGEM which shows a larger 12" or so area rather than the death band 30" stuff.

Wasn't the Lindsey Storm 1969 a big Nassau County Miller B storm? 2/8/13 would have been substantially better had 1/3 or more of the storm not been wasted with rain/sleet in Long Beach. I can't get on board with crazy 20+ amounts yet for us but I'm becoming more confident we'll get past 12". GFS should have been better with that upper air chart. There's really only upside when you see two closed 500mb contours just SE of you. Rolling the dice here but I may be coming to Long Beach for this one. For all out blizzard conditions it would be a great place to hang out even if snow totals are a little less.

This won't go hugely further west, we're probably near the limit or within 30-40 miles but to me it's just the maps catching up to the potential that's been here all along finally.

There won't be any problems with the dry slot or mix for us. MAYBE for out by Montauk if the west trend really does continue. Our issue would be subsidence zones between bands which can't be forecast now. I can definitely understand Forky beginning to get excited. Boxing Day 2010 was supposed to be a LI focused storm too and it buried E NJ. I don't see how this has to stop going west here.

Yeah if that happens we won't have to worry at all from the city on east about picking up totals over and possibly well over a foot. That's a thing of beauty.

Metsfan's right. Miller A's (which this storm is more of than miller B ) aren't the GFS strong suit. It seems to do better with storms dominated by the northern stream which the Euro can struggle with. And GFS was very close to being considerably better. It had the stupid double low which stole a little and dragged the storm east.

Jeez is anyone shocked? What a shame that after this big upgrade it still sucks royally on pinning down these coastal storms more than 48hrs out.

That's fine, I'm not concerned about it. When has it not caught up at the very end with these? As long as it's moving in the right direction it's fine by me.

Lots of us were saying what could happen with a slightly earlier closing off of the low. This could and probably will make shifts but there's nothing to really stop it from coming west at least another 30-40 miles. And it's not a given that it'll trend back east at the last minute. 1/4/18 came west until the very end, I think 12/19/09 trended NW until the end, so did Boxing Day 2010. Sure some do tick back east but it's not a rule.