jm1220

Yep. The LLJ is also pushing north which means once the rain stops the winds should subside for a while. The parent low will die off and the one offshore will take over, meaning the rain will pivot back south and winds increase as it pinwheels. If this was winter, this front end batch would be a driving rain for most of us or snow to rain because of that tucked in low reflection near JFK. The precip pivoting back south would be snow due to the offshore low taking over.

Yep there's going to be a pivot point somewhere over LI/S CT where the heavy rain will sit and eventually come back south. That's the area that will really get drenched with the 4-5"+ amounts.

HRRR would be a nightmare anywhere near the coast. Has big rain amounts too, 3-5" areawide. Lots of tree damage if that materializes.

I will say it's probably a good winter sign that we're getting a noreaster like this early. Usually predicts more like them later (Oct 2011 don't remind me so who knows lol).

Annihi-fricking-lation down here. Drenching for 24 hours plus 60mph winds on top. And hate to say it but tucked in is usually the right answer.

The 15” storm we got on 2/1? I definitely remember that lol.

To be fair most were thinking we were doomed last Nov. I did too. I thought it would be a miracle if we made it normal snow and most us made it to 40”. I would say the tea leaves so far generally indicate a lousy/warm winter again but lots of factors at play besides just La Niña which the NWS prediction essentially took Nina climo off the printer and used that for the winter outlook.

It’s pretty much climo for a Nina winter which is what they put up last winter. I put little/no stock in it since there are many other factors at play besides the weak to mod Nina expected. I guess it doesn’t predict snow for any place in particular. Last winter was warmer than average but also snowier here however nationwide it didn’t turn out how the median Nina winter does.

They desperately need the rain/snow there and especially in the SW. If any good systems can make it there in this Nina year it would be a great thing. Usually Nina winters are wet/cold in the NW where it’s not as needed.

Torrential rain closing in on I-35 with Blanco County estimating 5” rain. It’s Flash Flood Alley in that area for a reason. I remember Patricia’s remnants in Oct 2015 causing the heaviest rain I’ve ever seen in my life in Austin when I lived there. Parts of the city near the airport had I think close to 15” of rain. Not too long before the area had the insane May 2015 floods which devastated Wimberley, San Marcos and other towns on the Blanco River. This won’t be nearly as bad thankfully but Pacific tropical remnants can cause plenty of havoc along I-35.

Bringing the south shore gunk up with me.

The SE flow will make this worse in places vulnerable to upslope on those winds. Pretty deep moist flow will be riding up those mountains and squeezing out heavy rain. Central PA especially in for a drenching along with probably the Poconos/Catskills.

Ridge over troubled waters pattern possibly.

Hopefully we’re finally taking steps down in the daily temps. Also hopefully the end of the humidity-early this week was putrid.

Definitely shows the influence of the SE Ridge here too. Luckily for us we’re in the contrast zone between that and the colder Midwest temps, and can take advantage of later blooming Miller B’s.

NHC broke out the A word. Annular?

De Blasio can’t be gone soon enough. Spineless is right and also a liar to claim that this was unforecasted and meteorologists dropped the ball.

Wow. Reminds me of what my town looked like after Sandy.

Wow. Horrendous that most deaths from Ida will likely be in this area. Goes to show how water is by far the deadliest aspect of any storm.

I wish there was a way we could capture all this water we keep getting here and ship it out west to where it’s needed and they’re dealing with one of their worst droughts on record.

For how much rain we had last night, it feels absolutely awesome outside now, even chilly.

This is freshwater flooding that while still tragic isn’t as bad as saltwater flooding for property/equipment/electronics. There wasn’t an 8+ foot surge that inundated every coastal area. The subways won’t be shut down for weeks in many cases. There are places that had catastrophic effects from this but calling it “another Sandy” or worse is hyperbole.

This isn’t as bad as Sandy but it does look catastrophic in some areas. The problem as always is flooding here. NYC is surrounded by water on 3 sides and we have so much underground infrastructure that floods in a situation like this. Tragically my thought that our death toll might end up higher than the South’s from Ida looks like will verify.

Terrible. I wonder if there’s a listing yet of rain amounts areawide? Radar for me estimates about 6.5” total.

These Gulf storms often have a Part 2 in this region where they hit Atlantic moisture and dump again. Allison and Camille and now Ida.