jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Euro does look snowy from I-78 north with the Mon PM/Tue storm but it's due to shearing out/weakening the S/W which weakens the precip overall and forces it south under the confluence. A stronger wave would nudge it north. It has minor snow/coating for tomorrow. We get split by one area going upstate and another going through S NJ. I'd gladly take whatever snow we get and if by some miracle it's a plowable snow even better. This winter is so pathetic that the Hollywood Sign's beating NYC in seasonal snow now. Never thought that day would ever come.
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True. Like I said we’ll see what happens here. Seems to be overall a weaker/ sheared out trend too, but a stronger wave would try to erode the confluence more.
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0z GFS still garbage for Mon/Tue.
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Snow ratios in this will be less than 10-1 most likely since the best lifting won't be in the DGZ which is -12 to -18C. The mid levels will be warmer since the strong WAA will be coming in. I took a sounding near HPN at 81hr and the DGZ isn't entirely saturated and it's all the way up at 15000-17000 feet. Column isn't fully saturated until you're down at 700mb which is where the strong WAA starts and you're already close to 0C. Edit I checked the 18z run by mistake but at 75hr at the same spot the idea is the same. It does have the entire column 1C cooler or so, so the run did trend a bit cooler.
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It has a mid 980s low headed through N Michigan. I'll never be thrilled with that although it does start to form the coastal low fairly quickly. It's some snow to a crap ton of sleet where I am, probably a quick change to rain on the south shore/southern NYC. The warm layer comes in quick at 750-800mb so there's definitely still some good WAA. Looks like it's battling some dry air once you get into New England and the good dynamics from the developing coastal system that stays a little suppressed could hurt them verbatim. IMO this is about as good an outcome as we can hope for around NYC unless there's a major change in the evolution and the primary dies a lot quicker. My money is on this trending north again like almost every SWFE does at the end, it goes back to the good snow being focused on I-90/Boston and we have the quick sleet to rain near the city. But maybe this can be the diamond in the rough SWFE I mentioned earlier that comes along every few years and the confluence/blocking can really make a difference this time. Who knows.
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In reality that would probably be a ton of sleet. Haven’t looked at the soundings from that run but that’s what I’d do before looking at any snow maps. Models do have a ton of precip falling in a short period of time before a dry slot so maybe the heavy rates can cool the column down.
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NAM is always insanely amped at 84hrs. But shows the range of possibilities. RGEM would likely be a sleetfest for northern NYC/north shore and rain on the south shore. Shows temps for me at around 32-33 at the height of the precip and a nasty 750-800mb warm layer and 36-37 on the south shore which would be warm enough for rain.
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I think 2.4” is needed to avoid the record.
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Last winter they did much better than NYC too between suppressed storms and being lucky with the late Jan blizzard. I think they ended with 37” and NYC only had 18”?
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Maybe the blocking/confluence can stay a little more stout and we don’t have as strong a S/W riding into it and it shears out a little. I still rate this as unlikely but having a prayer vs totally screwed is a positive.
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The Keep Hope Alive run here on the north shore. I’d need to see more runs do the same but the fast decaying primary is really the only way NYC has a prayer with this one.
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Willing to bet very strongly that’s incorrect in a SWFE with 980s low west of Buffalo, with retreating confluence. I could see in a best case scenario a lot of sleet but even that’s far fetched when we also have strong ESE surface winds.
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Maybe. We’ll see what happens and what we can wet bulb down to. It could definitely be a sleet fest for many if we’re just a degree or two colder. Soundings do support frozen to start especially if it goes heavy quickly.
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We’ll have snowy winters again here. We just need this constant perma-Nina to end. We were also overdue for duds after the bonanzas over the last 20 years. Averages and climo always reassert themselves and we balance out. As has been mentioned many times we don’t live in Boston so we can’t expect their climo, even though if anything they’re more overdue than us.
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With SWFEs precip usually starts sooner than expected but since there’s a good amount of confluence, the precip might get eaten up by dry air for a while. We probably get the vast majority of what we’ll get within 6 hours or so because there’s a huge dry slot that will come in on Tue AM. But we won’t wet bulb down to 32, we have an onshore strengthening wind and these always have the nasty mid level warm layer, so most likely it’s sleet then to rain within an hour in the city.
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As expected and has been clear for the last 2-3 days. Boston has many ways they can get a good total, maybe 10”+ from an evolution like this where we just cold rain. SWFEs absolutely suck outside the diamond in the rough every few years. Very Nina climo as well and we need that to end.
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When any improvement gets to within day 5 I’ll start to care. I’m done with the 8-10 day model hallucinations. I’m sure any “improvement” will come just in time to drive back door fronts in for spring though.
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Look at soundings before any clown snow map outputs. I haven’t for this run but for me if the primary low is driving up west of Buffalo it tells me all I need to know for what I should expect.
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3/20/18 was good in Long Beach but way better where I am now where there was up to 18”. I had 10” or so of absolute glop. 4/7/03 was another where there was easily 6” on the south shore in the middle of the day. But so many others I remember white rain or struggles to accumulate while the N Shore did so easily.
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It’ll probably be a coating to a half inch which will be nice to see but will be gone a few hours later or as soon as the sun can get to it.
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It’s really the densely populated part of S Nassau that’s bad. N Nassau where there’s elevation and more thinly populated isn’t as bad with the UHI. Even Bayside/Douglaston isn’t so bad. They can do well in marginal events that I remember SW Nassau especially being white rain.
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If you’re referring to 1/12/11 it was probably 8-9” in Long Beach. It was just something of a late bloomer like you said that nailed Suffolk County and especially CT. The dividing line here is really the LIE I’d say, which is where the terrain becomes elevated/hilly. Distance from the UHI also helps but the few extra miles from the ocean influence also help.
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The snow average where I am is I’d say 35”, NorthShoreWX has Smithtown at 38” going back to the early 1990s I think. That’s on par with or better than S CT. It’s worlds different here than SW Nassau where I grew up. It’s not like interior New England here for sure but coastal CT/RI, sure. 2018-19 and 2020-21 even were laughably different at times between Long Beach and here. Many more early and late freezes as well being away from the UHI. Most don’t realize that the Sound actually helps enhance LI snowfall as well in major events where we have strong NE winds bring some moisture as well as an orographic lift/frictional convergence component. In the late Jan 2022 major event it was blindingly obvious how the Sound effect helped linger the snow. If people think there’s no difference between the two areas, try the comparison over a few winters and it becomes pretty apparent. We’re definitely not a snow belt but it does help here and there and it does add up in normal winters, not atrocities like this year.
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UKMET hasn't looked terrible for Mon PM/Tue for second run now and it's the furthest south with the evolution but wouldn't jump on it until another reliable model heads that way.
