jm1220

Really down to nowcasting and seeing how our system develops vs the convection well offshore that will rob from it to some degree. The NAM/mesos/RAP/HRRR seem divided over how well it develops for us overnight and how much precip we get. Actually they seem to favor something of a subsidence area over CT and a heavier area over coastal NJ at this point. 3-6"/4-7" seems like the best range for us.

GFS looked good. Has plenty of precip well inland too. 0.5" liquid makes it to Newburgh. LI gets a good 6". With decent ratios, the whole Upton area probably gets warning/borderline amounts on that run. This would suggest 2"/hr snow.

Temps aren't going to be a problem. Maybe it starts out at 33 briefly but the snow looks to come in like a wall and we drop below freezing quickly. Dewpoints are also in the teens which helps out with cooling.

Then the coastal low would have more energy and moisture to itself and it would be a better outcome for us. But it's really nowcast time to see how that convection blows up and how it affects our storm. The upper air setup would really favor a nice compact low just offshore so we have that going for us.

If the NAM's right the snow does linger a little longer into the morning, like 7-8am or so east of NYC. It'll be a hellacious morning commute for sure. What we get largely falls within 5 hours.

Becoming guardedly optimistic we make it to 6". If the new NAM is right it's hard to see how we don't and some people make it to 8". That's some seriously heavy snow just before daybreak.

3k NAM very similar, average of 6" east of NYC.

This would probably be 2"/hr in spots. And banding would extend well west into NJ, wouldn't just be confined to the coast.

NAM. Only downer is this is coming completely overnight.

18z RAP looks quite impressive for most of us, 5-6" except well NW. HRRR a little less so, more like 3-5".

If we have snow cover for this Arctic airmass it would definitely help maximize it.

Probably not the confidence for having enough 6+ amounts for the warning. I think some people in our area will but it likely won't be widespread enough so they'll keep a high-end advisory.

The QPF looks to be a bit further west even if amounts are about the same. I think it's trying to develop the storm near NJ a little sooner which is what we need.

Nice event for the Jersey Coast on NE. Hopefully the shaft area isn’t too bad.

No it's 1"/hr for whatever hour that is.

Yeah, I think there will be an unhappy swath that gets 1-3" while surroundings get 3-6" from the primary or developing low. That dual-max outcome is common in these. The area most at risk of that is over NJ into E PA. We want the low to consolidate/develop sooner for sure.

New GFS looks really nice, especially for Long Island where it shows some heavy bands setting up. But no one really shut out, 3"+ for everyone.

Probably not but it’ll be nice to wake up to whatever it ends up as. I think I’m in a decent spot for this so hopefully it works out. Not huge totals but definitely enough as a winter reminder event.

Our snow mostly comes in 3-5 hours, looks like it’ll be 1-maybe 2” an hour in that time.

That dual max with shaft zone will likely happen somewhere. Usually does with these energy transfer situations. The 12z HRRR was pretty nasty with that over NJ and E PA. Glad the Nam finally woke up. 4-6” looks good for LI (locally 7-8” if the banding works out) and maybe NYC, 2-4” west of the city.

GFS still has that fronto band signature, looks maybe a hair west of last night's run. If anywhere that's where you'd see 6"+. This run looks like it's over the city.

Hopefully this one is a little colder than Super Bowl last year and it’s overnight so there’s no issue with the snow sticking. I remember in Long Beach for that one the beginning was rain and we wasted a good amount on non accumulating snow. Up where I am now it was considerably better.

Whatever falls, it’ll be nice to wake up to in the morning. I’m thinking some people can make it to 6” depending on where the banding happens but generally it’s 4-6” from the city on east and 2-4” north and west. There is a good signal IMO for a fronto band developing and setting up somewhere for a couple hours. Most favored location for that may be central LI and CT. Some have mentioned the Super Bowl day storm last year and that might not be a bad analog. It was favored for city on east locations, was a fast mover and a few places ended up with 8-9”. Maybe there could be similar surprises.

This is nice.