jm1220

Ehh. As far as I'm concerned we're still in "there'll be a significant storm somewhere but who knows where it'll hit" mode. Frustrating that we have this much divergence again but hopefully the Euro holds in an hour and the east models come back west. Keep hopes in check because here they sometimes get blown up. Like I said we all have way too many battle scars from tracking to ultimately see it fail.

Yes, as always with this type of system. Sometimes they work out like 1/4/18, sometimes they don't like 1/27/15 (Suffolk County was rocked).

Can't speak for how that's gone this winter but I think that's been fixed in the last upgrade (last winter it was called the v16).

Nothing less here. Always a nailbiter on the W side of these.

Canadian not a huge change to me, went a little west. Goes just inside the B/M and runs into the outer Cape. Would be a good hit for just about everyone, biggie east of NYC. I'm not that concerned about the GFS at this point. It's been pretty inconsistent overall.

I've seen the RGEM make huge swings pretty early this winter already on other storms so it doesn't worry me. Then again the NAM's at the end of its run and we're drooling all over it. Bottom line is we still have a ways to go.

I highly doubt at this point anyone has to worry about mixing. There were maybe 2 Euro EPS members (most amped model) that would make it a concern out of 51.

It’s the Nam but the trend toward a faster southern stream and better phase is what makes all the difference. And that happens early enough in the run that hopefully it’s not clueless-where the major hit comes from starts early in the run. I think if that continues this can round the turn soon enough to be a major event for the majority of us.

That would be ummm….. awesome for this whole sub forum if it verified. Next 2-3 panels would be obliteration.

Crazy for this lead time.

I’m hoping that’s been fixed to an extent but it’s always a concern. These big ocean storms often trend east a little at the end. I certainly hope the Euro’s not that overdone and we see other models trend toward it.

Big cluster showing a bomb south of Montauk. Those would probably be 20”+ for most of us.

I think the GFS was getting there but the evolution of it was a little too progressive. Upper air lows close off a little too late for people west of Suffolk County. We want a slowed down amped evolution like the Euro.

I definitely agree. There’ll be a heck of an easterly moist feed into the storm from the warmer than average Atlantic. I can see there being a couple of death bands with a few inches per hour. Great upper level dynamics too as the lows close off to maximize lift.

I wouldn't put specific amounts out until tomorrow evening and just note "potential for a significant winter storm is increasing for Saturday" etc and that what we get is most likely to be snow. There'll probably be a big have/have-not difference like these storms normally give, NYC is in a tight spot like in most storms and hyping big amounts up can still backfire. There's still time tomorrow night or Thu or even Fri to discuss big amounts if models continue the trends. I remember the debacle around the 2/8/13 storm and the insane NAM run Channel 4 literally put up on screen, and the Armageddon like hype before 1/27/15. It really does make people less likely to pay attention before one really does hit. That said I have no idea what Lee Goldberg or anyone else is saying since I don't watch them anyway.

For those who want to nitpick, the upper air lows don't close off soon enough for many of us so the heavy snow is forced east somewhat. Euro closes them off much sooner. But overall a significant move toward the Euro.

GFS is getting there and trending toward the euro. Again all I really care about at this point.

18z RGEM is taking way longer to phase the southern stream in and has the low further east. Take that for what it's worth too (not much).

It's the 84hr NAM. I like the idea of it bringing the energy east faster. That's all I take from it.

From your keyboard to God's eyes...

NAM would be an annihilation if we saw another 2-3 panels.

Lots of Euro ensemble members west of the mean again that seem to go just SE of Montauk. I’m sure those members are bombs. 2-3 members skew the average to the east which go well SE of Cape Cod.

If the stall/capture happens in that spot yikes for us. But the consensus is still a good bit NE of there for it, closer to Cape Cod. My gut tells me it’ll take a lot of luck to spread the wealth well inland at least west of NYC but the Euro’s what you’d want to see for that to happen. Its tendency to over-amp these systems in recent years gives me some pause.

If you have 30-40mph+ winds, it breaks apart the flakes and lowers ratios. There’s usually a western most deformation band where ratios can be maxed but if winds are that high ratios can be cut down. 12 or 13-1 I can see but huge ratios won’t happen with strong winds.

This ain’t the fourth quarter. Maybe we’re getting close to halftime. “End of the beginning”? We have way too many battle scars from late shifts/fails on these to start calling it a win. And the other models largely still fringe NYC and have NW areas high and dry. Have to keep the trend going on the other models.