jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Snow actually borderline moderate again.
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Definitely a fluff bomb. There must be 12-15:1 ratios or even higher in this.
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About 8” in my backyard/my deck which is a guess. Light snow picking back up.
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Seems like many in NYC have 6”+. Surprised they weren’t upgraded to warnings.
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Mod to heavy still as this band pushes east. Looks like 7-8” on the ground.
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Mod to heavy and estimating a few inches. I think we easily go past 6 and have a good shot at 8" given what's left.
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Coming down moderately with a good coating on everything. Big flakes. We're going to do well in this event I think. We have another 5 hours of this to go with it still snowing heavily near DC. RAP and HRRR are a little better once again.
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HRRR and RAP are looking a little better as well FWIW. Both show about 0.5" liquid east of the city and a nice band roughly western half of LI and much of CT for 6". 0z Euro shows roughly the same.
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I know as well as anyone how much it sucks for snow having grown up there lol. But we have a banter thread for that and this is just the start for the event. It’ll cool down once the intensity goes up.
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Snowing nicely here with big flakes. Cold surfaces are starting to accumulate. Radar looks good to me as well.
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Stop being ridiculous. The event is just getting started. And BTW I’m deleting all the posts about “frustrated”, “South Shore sucks”, already crying bust, bickering etc. Grow up.
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Rare that although this will be a moderate event it'll be shared by so many. In this day and age we get all or nothing storms. Very nice. Hopefully that transition area in W NJ isn't too bad.
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RGEM looks good, maybe a slight cut back from 18z. It has that heavy area again over Ocean and Monmouth. They might do quite well.
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Really down to nowcasting and seeing how our system develops vs the convection well offshore that will rob from it to some degree. The NAM/mesos/RAP/HRRR seem divided over how well it develops for us overnight and how much precip we get. Actually they seem to favor something of a subsidence area over CT and a heavier area over coastal NJ at this point. 3-6"/4-7" seems like the best range for us.
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GFS looked good. Has plenty of precip well inland too. 0.5" liquid makes it to Newburgh. LI gets a good 6". With decent ratios, the whole Upton area probably gets warning/borderline amounts on that run. This would suggest 2"/hr snow.
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Temps aren't going to be a problem. Maybe it starts out at 33 briefly but the snow looks to come in like a wall and we drop below freezing quickly. Dewpoints are also in the teens which helps out with cooling.
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Then the coastal low would have more energy and moisture to itself and it would be a better outcome for us. But it's really nowcast time to see how that convection blows up and how it affects our storm. The upper air setup would really favor a nice compact low just offshore so we have that going for us.
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If the NAM's right the snow does linger a little longer into the morning, like 7-8am or so east of NYC. It'll be a hellacious morning commute for sure. What we get largely falls within 5 hours.
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Becoming guardedly optimistic we make it to 6". If the new NAM is right it's hard to see how we don't and some people make it to 8". That's some seriously heavy snow just before daybreak.
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3k NAM very similar, average of 6" east of NYC.
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This would probably be 2"/hr in spots. And banding would extend well west into NJ, wouldn't just be confined to the coast.
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NAM. Only downer is this is coming completely overnight.
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18z RAP looks quite impressive for most of us, 5-6" except well NW. HRRR a little less so, more like 3-5".
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If we have snow cover for this Arctic airmass it would definitely help maximize it.
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Probably not the confidence for having enough 6+ amounts for the warning. I think some people in our area will but it likely won't be widespread enough so they'll keep a high-end advisory.
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