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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Can he pilot about 1000 military planes to about 200 miles east of Charleston and dump about a billion ice cubes in the water so the convection would stop there? Please and thanks. In all seriousness it’s nowcast time and we just have to see how it evolves.
  2. jm1220
    No but people shouldn’t think there will be 18” on 1” liquid either.
  3. jm1220
    That’s what we don’t want. We want that convection to be weaker. That might be the mechanism to string out the low and drag it east. But the short range models are in good shape so hopefully not.
  4. jm1220
    Incoming for the city east-first heavy band coming in from Monmouth. Also have an inch or so here in Long Beach.
  5. jm1220
    Right here. For the 1000th time the Kuchera amounts aren’t happening. Those seem to assume like 16-1 ratios and that won’t happen in the strong winds we have in the meat of the storm and especially tomorrow. 12-1 sure so you can increase the 10-1 map somewhat but not too much. It would still be a great event though regardless.
  6. jm1220
    Perhaps the beginning of the outer heavy snow band. Let’s see how far west it can get up here. Unfortunately NW of that is likely the big cutoff.
  7. jm1220
    Borderline moderate in Long Beach. Good coating on all surfaces other than the street. Radar looking good to the SW. Here we go.
  8. jm1220
    I think it’s HRRR/RAP time at this point. And they’re both trending better gradually.
  9. jm1220
    It does spread some decent snow inland for a while. Morristown looked like 0.5-0.6 liquid which would be warning amounts.
  10. jm1220
    NYC 0.8” or so liquid on the last few HRRR runs.
  11. jm1220
    HRRR seems to be getting better with the storm evolution and steady with me about 1.2-1.3” liquid. Hopefully we can get 12-1 ratios which would be 14-16”. Suffolk has 1.5-1.7” which should be 20”+ in places.
  12. jm1220
    Light snow in Long Beach. Surfaces beginning to be coated.
  13. jm1220
    What a hilarious shift this close in. Models really have no clue here.
  14. jm1220
    That was a nice improvement. HRRR/RAP are also holding steady or improving. Maybe we’ve got a shot after all here.
  15. jm1220
    Partly yes. It’s warm advection ahead of the main low (whatever that is given the model trends) developing off the Carolinas.
  16. jm1220
    Maybe “convection” can bail us out next time there’s a 3/14/17 type storm. Of course those are when all systems are go and the people who are supposed to get buried go without a hitch.
  17. jm1220
    This is… pretty crazy. I thought warm Atlantic waters are supposed to help storms, not make them sheared out garbage?
  18. jm1220
    I’m still reasonably optimistic I get 12” in Long Beach where I’ll be. But normally with a look like that aloft I’d be thinking 18”. Maybe we should get in a boat and head 500 miles east to go storm chasing later with the amount of energy this convection is supposed to steal. Im hoping it’s overdone but I’m not the one with the Ph.D to be able to tell one way or the other.
  19. jm1220
    A little. It has the low as essentially strung out garbage which pivots the whole mess east.
  20. jm1220
    I think the models might be picking out the gradient that’s usually more than forecast which would be maybe 20 miles west of the city. But the most important consideration is this dual low/dumbbell and how real it is.
  21. jm1220
    Your fingers to God’s keyboard! I have no freaking clue what’s going to happen with this. You would think with the upper air lows where they are it would be a great outcome for the vast majority of us.
  22. jm1220
    Crazy. To be honest this dumbbell low might be worse north of us than down here. HRRR gets the goods into our area and S CT before it gets shunted to an extent by the fujiwara thing the lows do. But I really don’t know what to think with this. Also if you showed me the 700mb low track on the Euro I would think at least near NYC and east would get slammed. It takes a very nice track overall.
  23. jm1220
    I usually would disregard the convection chasing to an extent but it already happened to the 1/9-10 storm this month. Even so it was a very nice event for most of us.
  24. jm1220
    I'll be headed to Long Beach for the storm. I think I'm still good to see about a foot.
  25. jm1220
    Yeah Riverhead went from about 2.1" at 0z to 1.5" now. Not sure what to think about it. Hopefully it's convective feedback of some kind. Who knows.
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