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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    60mph gust at LGA at end of last hour.
  2. jm1220
    Nasty cell looks to be headed for Rt 112 to the Sagtikos.
  3. jm1220
    Called that 2 days ago. The east side of these is never a good place for high rain amounts. You have to be lucky and be under a feeder band for a while. West of track is always where the heavy rain is. That said wind is definitely picking up here with a shower that just came through. I hear sirens in the distance too.
  4. jm1220
    Uhh what?
  5. jm1220
    Another feeder band might be developing E of ACY.
  6. jm1220
    Winds getting stronger now. I’m in a bit of a sheltered location. I’m sure on the south shore it’s getting significantly worse
  7. jm1220
    The main impact from any tornadoes would be from the main feeder band that’s over central NJ now.
  8. jm1220
    Heavy rain axis looks about where it was expected, maybe even a bit East. There should be some 3-4” amounts in the western half of NJ too. I would rather have taken that then the high winds and tornado threat here on the right side. Still not much wind here but models have it picking up pretty quickly as the major feeder band comes in.
  9. jm1220
    Also just noticed our area was largely bumped up to ENH risk today?
  10. jm1220
    That area is what seems to bring the really strong winds in and then for a few hours behind that. Right now outside it’s very still-barely any breeze.
  11. jm1220
    0z 3km NAM looks a little stronger with the winds tomorrow afternoon/evening. Worst of it for the Jersey Shore starts around noon, and then for NYC/LI the worst is from 3-7pm. There's an area of what looks to be 50+kt sustained wind at 10m right along the Jersey Shore and then into the south shore of LI. Gusts in that would likely be near hurricane force. Thankfully the strong winds would only really go on for less than 6 hours and the storm's trucking north. Appears that a feeder band pivots through as the strong winds really get going. Narrow area of 3"+ rain mostly in E PA and W NJ, then into the Catskills.
  12. jm1220
    I wonder if this strengthening burst will be enough for hurricane warnings up further on the coast?
  13. jm1220
    Mine flickered but luckily came back on.
  14. jm1220
    I wonder how the models overnight will incorporate the strengthening happening now. It won’t have much time to weaken before it’s here.
  15. jm1220
    Yeah, rain is probably moderate with it here. Edit-never mind, now torrential but wind died down.
  16. jm1220
    Storm just started here. Definitely gusty wind, enough to sway trees.
  17. jm1220
    Wow. Starting to think the more intense impacts up here will be possible given the accelerating speed of it and it not weakening as much as normal over land due to the trough interaction
  18. jm1220
    Jones Inlet is just before 9pm.
  19. jm1220
    It'll be somewhat likely on LI that there are one or two, but even so TS/hurricane related tornadoes are typically weak and short lived. Thankfully it seems like the worst of the storm will be over by high tide tomorrow night.
  20. jm1220
    I’d rather take the 2-4” of rain over the maybe 70mph winds so it can keep drifting East, please.
  21. jm1220
    Long Beach could be a good spot for the worst of the winds on the south shore. Thankfully the surge doesn’t look too big a deal but that would be an area I’d look for any 70-75mph gusts. I don’t think it’s quite enough for a hurricane watch/warning but could be close.
  22. jm1220
    There aren’t going to be 100+mph gusts with this. That’s insane. I’d say maybe 70-75 right on the beaches and 60mph elsewhere East of the center.
  23. jm1220
    If you’re in much of NJ, E PA and the Hudson valley, sure. If you’re East of the city, no way unless this ends up taking much more of a NE turn than expected.
  24. jm1220
    At least the lack of rain East of the center should limit the tree damage somewhat. There’ll definitely be power outages though if the 60+ mph gusts do happen. If you’re expecting over an inch of rain though you’ll be disappointed. Many may not even make it to 0.5”.
  25. jm1220
    Always a risk for some tornadoes East of the track where feeder bands can pivot through. Other than that on the current path I wouldn’t expect much rain East of the city, maybe an inch if lucky. What we get here will come from the few feeder bands which comes down to luck. The heavy rain just like with Fay will be over NJ/Hudson Valley. Maybe some gusts over 60 on the coast which could knock some trees down/power out. Also some coastal flooding likely from the onshore wind/surge which should be fairly minor but the full moon will make it worse.
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