jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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1/4/18 might be a decent analog for this-where the cutoff sets up, not the storm evolution. The "hope" line for me is I-287/87 to I-84 on east. NW of there I think is done for more than a few inches. I definitely do buy the sharp cutoff idea and we'll be riding where the western fronto band can make it.
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It might, might not. I'm not too concerned about it.
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This winter not really but it’s better to have it than not at this point. It’s also hopefully a precursor to a really good GGEM run.
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Hopefully we can get this to track inside the Benchmark then have the stall/capture just south of Cape Cod like the GGEM/UK had last night. That’s how NYC can get annihilated. And obviously the east shuffles from the Euro need to stop.
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Yep exactly why we want the early phase and cutting off the upper low. This setup is great for Boston and eastern Suffolk but NYC needs a little help to be in a good spot. The help definitely still has time to happen.
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It can happen if we have convective blowups on the east side of the storm. The storm will start to compete with itself in a way between that convection and the mid level forcing and dynamics to the west. That broadens the storm more than we want.
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And needless to say hopefully this double barrel low idea is a mistake. That’s what’s helping the Euro keep ticking east.
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Looks great but hopefully the trough is a little less broad. Does look a little more negative tilt ready. We want the early close off.
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Plenty of people are accepting that. I definitely am. It likely ends up the 50 mile range again between a very nice easy warning event and a small nuisance. Hopefully that’s west of the city so the most can enjoy it.
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Ratios are determined by what happens in the cloud not surface temps. That part will help but if we see 50mph gusts, the flakes get broken up and ratios are close to 10-1 regardless. I’ve seen several systems where we had teens but tiny or sand flakes with lousy snow growth.
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I guess we’ll see. It really can happen, happened with our last storm. Hopefully the UK/GGEM last night didn’t overcorrect. GFS still being stubborn obviously but it’s probably way too suppressed and it’s up to old tricks. My ‘bar’ for NYC is a 4-6” type event, be thrilled with more than that.
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It’s been on this amped trend which other models look to be picking up which is a feather in its cap here it seems. 0z and 6z both went east though and now NYC is at the edge of a warning event on the model. Want that to reverse obviously. It has the stall/capture too far NE.
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Uhm, yes. 2" liquid from the city east and 20+ inches at 10:1 ratio. Would be a NAM like annihilation. Perfect track for us and upper lows blowing their top right over us.
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Wow.
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I didn't mean that literally lol. Great news about the GGEM and (hopefully) UKMET. If we get the GFS on its own and the other models trending to a bomb I'm pretty sure we can discount it.
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Maybe they flew enough sorties and dropsondes that the jet stream changed into a look that would get us a nice storm.
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Wouldn't have it any other way here with these. We've had big final 24-36 hr changes on the plus and minus side in the recent past. 1/4/18-big plus, Juno 2015 big minus.
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Doesn't really show the capture scenario so actually it could be longer if that happens.
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RGEM much much improved. Has a warning criteria event out to around I-287/87/I-84. Probably around a foot for the city on east.
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West enough to where NYC gets a major hit. Relatively small changes needed to get it there. And it can happen in a pretty short timeframe. The 1/4/18 storm that first coined the "bomb cyclone" popular term was supposed to fringe NYC at best and clobber E LI and Boston until 36hrs out or even less. Central Park ended with 10" I believe and I ended up with 14-15" 25 miles east of NYC because of a relatively minor shift.
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We want the upper 500mb low to close off just south of us. That would really deliver it. Pay the most attention to the upper level evolution.
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If it’s way down south like over NC and it occludes down there it would just kind of drift east and not get the best dynamics up here. But the evolution looked weird and it again blows up random convection that it seems to chase. It was a lot better than 18z that’s what I care about. The upper air evolution was a hair away from another 12z blockbuster. Now we cross fingers for other models to follow.
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NAM digs a little too far south/closes off too far south and it kind of escapes east and occludes. Again since it’s the Nam I really couldn’t care less. Just hysterical.
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That’s absolutely embarrassing however this turns out. So glad the Nam is getting discontinued soon.
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It kind of just gets left behind between the diving in northern stream and steep PNA ridge it looks like, like a cut off eddy in a stream. But hopefully it ends up participating more and adding to the storm.
