jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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If we keep the cold/+PNA pattern there will be other chances after this one. I wouldn’t get too bummed out.
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I could see there being front end snow at the onset for a few hours especially inland but tracks well inland like shown will switch everyone over to rain. Near the coast whatever would fall probably gets washed away.
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FOK went from 8 to 28 in one hour. Low was 2 there.
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Wind shifting to the south off the 40s ocean. Welcome to Long Island!! Upcoming arctic air masses will be longer lived I think (what a bummer that it might get interrupted by rain in the 40s for 12 hours on Sunday before crashing again).
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There isn’t much of a blocking pattern. There’s a pseudo -NAO upcoming but not enough to really shunt east a vigorous storm like this one. This looks like it wants to amp up fast and cut north. I don’t see much to really stop it. Also the ridge axis is a little too far west than what I’d want for an offshore tracking storm. Nothing to stop a frigid pattern from suddenly featuring a warm cutter or hugger that changes us over to rain when we lack the blocking. That said this is 5 days away and will change but I don’t see anything to stop it from being a lousy outcome either.
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Doesn't matter. We can definitely go from frigid to rain to frigid again. There's little confluence/blocking to keep the cold in place so it lifts out as the storm arrives.
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The ridge axis out west is also not in a great place for an offshore track right now. We'd like for it to be over Idaho or Montana not the west coast. Hopefully something can nudge it east.
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Our coldest air masses come down from due north as others noted. The strong NW winds also downslope somewhat which causes heating, and come from the modifying lakes.
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12 here.
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We could really use some confluence to force an offshore track. A vigorous trough like that will want to cut somewhere. The ridge out west nudging east would also help.
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Down to 13 here. I agree that this airmass isn’t all that impressive. Here and gone in a day. We probably have a few hours left for temps to go down before the airmass rushes out and we start rising again.
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We have a few days before we start needing to worry about track. The big signal for now is a storm, not much else specifically.
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Not to get into the weeds too much but it was a gut punch here with 3” washed away by the time the dry slot mercifully arrived and put an end to the pain. 12-18” was forecast a day before but the NW trend writing on the wall was there. Ensembles seem to be decently east of these tracks which is a bit reassuring at this stage. Very nice 500mb depiction so if that does pan out someone’ll get a big storm for sure. Hopefully it doesn’t amp like crazy.
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Still way too early to hone in on a track but the signal for a big storm is there. It would definitely be useful for some confluence/blocking to show up to force the track offshore. A 3/14/17 type hugger is definitely on the table without it or even an inland runner.
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Not where he lives. In N NJ it was a few inch event I think. These +PNA, +NAO patterns can be dry/cold/suppressed which wouldn't surprise me if happened again. Also a lot of wave interference with too many S/W ruining opportunities for amplification. It's too early to write off anything but I agree the best opportunity may be as we're transitioning back to a warmer pattern.
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Patchy/piles generally. My backyard is still mostly full coverage.
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My backyard still has full coverage but will be patchy soon. Front yard just patches.
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This windy mild moist airmass is a snowpack killer. Most of us will be down to patches and mall piles by the time we go below freezing again.
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Very sorry for your loss, Snowman.
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Low of 7 so far at Westhampton.
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The most recent ice event in Long Beach where I grew up may have been the Valentines Day 2007 storm, where there was enough ice to make tree limbs bend/break. 93-94 may also have had a couple of ice events. It’s a good amount more common where I live now. A few times there’s been a glaze to a slightly thicker coating of ice since I moved here 3 years ago that were cold rain on the south shore.
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Still in the teens here, already above freezing in Long Beach and Jones Beach. When the winds kick up overnight, our temps here will go up in a hurry.
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18 here. Frigid wintry environment tonight.
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The 8+ amounts looked common from LGA east to Port Jeff. Crazy difference between LGA and Central Park-4” difference in a few miles. The jackpot locally may have been N Nassau. A couple of 9” amounts there.
