jm1220

There's time for recovery later today/tonight/tomorrow but have to admit GFS/CMC aren't what we wanted at 12z. Progressive late/delayed phase will likely be a meh outcome for those of us west of Riverhead or New Haven CT.

Verbatim the GFS starts ramping amounts up east of me from where it's like 4-5" in MBY to 8-10" over the forks. I think the forks are in for at least a very solid event. Me hopefully a decent event near the Nassau border and west of NYC sweating these changes. But it's annoying how it keeps leaving the energy behind and delaying the phase. Hard to see how it can end well for most of us if that happens. Maybe it's a bias at play but the Euro/NAM also notoriously overamp these. It's all about how fast and fully the streams phase. Delayed/late phase and we're dealing with what I described.

Weird outcome or not I wouldn’t jump on the Euro/Nam solutions until the GFS shifts west. Just way too risky. I don’t like how it leaves the energy behind out west. We have to make up serious ground from the northern stream because of that and by the time it would happen it would probably be too late and be a benefit for E MA instead. It’s not quite put up or shut up time but by tonight we’d be getting to that point. Time for the east models to start shifting west/amped if we really want to bite.

This won't be a situation where the QPF is overdone. The moisture coming into this storm will be absurd if the capture/partial stall really does happen. I definitely see 30" happening somewhere in a scenario like that. Of course if it's progressive and doesn't happen that'll be overstated.

Can't trust either the RGEM or NAM yet. Looking forward to hopefully an improvement on the GFS. Doesn't have to show a bomb quite yet but definitely want an improvement.

It did much better with phasing in the southern stream. And that happens early in the run. The ridge position to me out west also tells me that it has room to come west. It’s really all about how progressive the trough is. The good phase puts a stop to it and bombs the low in a perfect spot.

This would just be epic from central MA down through Suffolk and good snow west of there into NYC still. And this is the last panel of the run when 20"+ fell already from NYC east. Again DON'T get too excited about it since it's the NAM but it shows the potential somewhere if the phasing does happen/close off in the right place.

And at 84hr when those totals are shown, it's still snowing heavily from the city on east. Huge deform band over central LI. 966mb essentially on top of the benchmark.

The GFS started a recovery back west at 6z. Hopefully that continues.

I have no idea. It’s also the Nam which can flop around more than a freshly caught fluke. But it’s good to see it better with the phase and upper air evolution than not.

Back to annihilation on the Nam. 500 low closes off in a great spot. Would be well over a foot easy from the city on east.

It's impossible to jump on with the Euro until others do as well. The GGEM was closest but not quite as epic. I want to see the GFS get better with closing off the low sooner in future runs. It did just get upgraded. I can't really think of a standout model this winter so far, maybe the GGEM's done best?

Hopefully this is the stage where we can start taking the Op more seriously vs the EPS. Still I have to think the 6z is overdone somewhat unless other models make a jump west at 12z.

It's something we're used to here with these ocean storms. Sometimes we get a rabbit out of the hat like 1/4/18 and Boxing Day 2010 and sometimes we have a Juno 2015 or mid-March 2018 that just misses NYC or grazes. These often do well here but it's not a 'wheelhouse storm' the way it is for Boston. To my east near the twin forks look to get crushed for sure. The GFS did get better at 6z and at least has me now 30 miles east of Central Park at a warning event, GGEM was solid and Euro if anything got better and demolishes 90% of the metro area. If the Euro fails this bad after the last 4-5 straight runs have over 12" into NYC it should just be a laughingstock. But it's been known to overdo/overamp this type of storm. You can probably translate the NYC 'tough call' down to the far eastern parts of this subforum like DE/eastern MD but hopefully the more amped models do have a clue here. And maybe there'll be a good surprise for DC too.

Oh for sure. As soon as you see that 500mnb map you know we get buried. We have that look or close to that look and we're in for a monster.

Use the 10-1 maps for something like this. There isn’t going to be 40” snow in Toms River.

Yeah, really hope it has a clue here. Even if you adjust it 50 miles east it would still be a beast for NYC area and LI/CT/Jersey shore. Looks like if anything it came west from 0z with the banding.

I wouldn’t go with Kuchera maps but to me it looks about the same as 0z if not a little better? 10-1 map was well over a foot from NYC east, 20”+ from roughly me on east. Lows close off and go boom in a great spot which would send heavy snow well to the west.

Impossible to say right now, we still have over a full day to nail it down. We just have to hope as much energy phases into the developing storm as early as possible. Others have pointed out that the ridge east of these is often under modeled at this stage which would be good as well and force it closer to the coast. I don’t think anyone is out of it completely but well N&W has always had the most to need right out of anyone.

I don’t know what “our” means but if you mean for well N&W I’d agree that this isn’t the kind of setup that favors them. For NYC it’s definitely not over and minor adjustments west on the guidance generally will put them in the game for significant to major amounts. Suffolk County is prime for major amounts. Last night’s Euro was about perfect for NYC and east, along with the Jersey shore with the track and where the lows closed off but we need that to continue and not keep trending NE. Where everything maxed out definitely did come NE from 18z and 12z. This is a setup that favors eastern areas and New England. That’s just how it is with where the different features are located and track of the storm. There’s a little more leeway in New England for a later phase or something of a progressive trend. It definitely doesn’t mean though that it’s “over” for a major storm near NYC.

GFS definitely got better. For the prime impacts you want the upper air lows to close off over or before your area. That’s why New England does better. The lows close off 6hrs sooner-so does NYC in this setup.

Ehh. As far as I'm concerned we're still in "there'll be a significant storm somewhere but who knows where it'll hit" mode. Frustrating that we have this much divergence again but hopefully the Euro holds in an hour and the east models come back west. Keep hopes in check because here they sometimes get blown up. Like I said we all have way too many battle scars from tracking to ultimately see it fail.

Yes, as always with this type of system. Sometimes they work out like 1/4/18, sometimes they don't like 1/27/15 (Suffolk County was rocked).

Can't speak for how that's gone this winter but I think that's been fixed in the last upgrade (last winter it was called the v16).

Nothing less here. Always a nailbiter on the W side of these.