jm1220

During my time at PSU in State College 2005-09 it was either coastal storms that did not spread any snow inland or raging sleet storms for the most part. Other than a few decent winters here and there since, it’s been disappointment for that area. For me it’ll be driving rain and wind but hopefully a nice event for you guys to end the winter. Looks like a nice event today. Near warning level for most of you guys?

The changeover line looks to be stuck on the barrier islands. With this activity coming from the west and declining sun maybe we can accumulate some more.

Wow, heavy snow again with a little sleet.

Back to moderate snow here. No rain yet.

Snow picking up again with some sleet.

Looks like a Round 2 coming, maybe some additional accumulation if it can be mod-heavy.

Elevation probably played a role. I’m at 200 ft while the shore definitely isn’t, and I’m further inland where it radiated better last night and we started off colder. That said it’s tapering off now and probably not much additional accumulating with the high sun angle and it being 33. This would be 4-6” if it was a month earlier with a few degree colder temps and better ratios. I guess it’s a decent winter sending though. In Long Beach it did snow for a little while but now it’s back to light rain and nothing stuck. This time of year it gets tough for the city and shore unless it’s quite cold or at night.

Good luck out there. I know it’s been atrocious for snow this winter in PA so hopefully this one can score for you guys.

Heavy snow with huge flakes. Street is covering fast.

Moderate snow. About an inch here I’d say. Slushy on paved surfaces.

Not surprisingly it’s rain in Long Beach with temp 37-38.

Sticking to cars, trees and cold paved surfaces. Street is wet.

There is up here, maybe a little more.

Snow picking up again here. Temp 33.

These models that show rain may also be a little too warm with surface temps. I'm a couple-few degrees colder than those models show. I would think that if we get heavier precip it would be snow. Whether it sticks or not is another question.

33 here, light snow with a coating.

FWIW the other hi-res models look pretty decent along with the HRRR/RAP. RGEM is a lot drier so it shows less cooling/less snow for near the city. FV3 looks atrocious but I think it's a short range GFS so not surprising.

Haven’t looked at the QPF but I’d assume it’s drier than Nam and therefore not as much dynamic cooling. We can see how tomorrow might take shape already. The city and immediate coast are stuck around 40. Once away from there it’s around freezing. It can get a couple degrees colder from wet bulbing down but the sun will warm it back up without the heavy snow keeping it cool.

We can hope. If the precip comes in like a heavy wall we’ll know the aggressive models were right. If scattered/light the GFS will be right. The heavy wall is how most of us can salvage some decent accums.

Fine by me honestly. The well inland areas in PA and NY are tremendously below average for snow this winter. They can have it.

Probably reasonable. The real questions will be how much we lose to rain/white rain, and how heavy the snow can come down to where it accumulates. This likely isn't one to be on the south shore or the city for. Wouldn't surprise me if Central Park ends with a T despite hours of snow falling. For where I am hopefully we can luck our way to 2" and get me over 30" for the winter. The best odds for a nice event are along I-84 down to the Tappan Zee, S CT and N NJ with some elevation.

Yep, models are trending that way. Not a surprise. Almost like clockwork last second north bump.

I-84 down to around White Plains/the CT coast/down to I-80 in NJ might be good spots for this. Models today are zooming in on that area for a heavy snow band for a while tomorrow. South of that there could be a subsidence area. Where the rates aren't heavy I doubt there's much accumulation. We'll have to see where this banding sets up.

It's really NAM or bust for anything decent near the city. RGEM wasn't too bad but even the 3k NAM backed off the amounts pretty big since 6z.