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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    95-96 having that Aleutian ridge more poleward may have helped as well to get more cold air involved? But no doubt, this winter we need all the Atlantic help we can get. If the NAO won’t cooperate it won’t be pretty. The SSTA west of Canada argues for a big time -PNA.
  2. jm1220
    I think we got down to 31, surfaces were frosty this morning.
  3. jm1220
    31 here.
  4. jm1220
    It's a more sparsely populated and wooded area so it cools off faster on nights like these. It's nearer to the north shore and hilly so it gets more snow than southern areas but it's not special compared to other north shore places. The Pine Barrens is the coldest spot on LI on nights like these but it warms right up when winds go onshore. Temp IMBY down to 37. There'll definitely be frost when the sun comes up.
  5. jm1220
    40 here, 46 north of me in Eatons Neck and also 47-48 on the ocean. Another radiational cooling night.
  6. jm1220
    33 here and also frost.
  7. jm1220
    There was a storm on 1/2/96 that was a I-90 snowstorm and down here was ice/rain mostly which is what you’re referring to. Thankfully the pattern reoriented and the blizzard happened 6 days later.
  8. jm1220
    La Niña happens when trade winds are stronger than usual in the tropical Pacific. I haven’t seen any research about whether global warming would weaken or strengthen trade winds. I don’t think we’re more or less predisposed to Nina or Nino these days. 2 winters ago was a Nino I think and it was a disaster.
  9. jm1220
    We'll need blocking whenever we can get it this winter to force cold air down. You can already see the roaring Nina Pacific getting started on the models for late this week/next week that will want to keep it zonal and flood the continent with mild air.
  10. jm1220
    Sun coming out in Huntington.
  11. jm1220
    Was quite gusty before the heavy rain came through, curiously when the rain started the wind essentially ceased. Was likely a nasty few hours in Long Beach and immediate shore.
  12. jm1220
    Windier here now than it ever was with the last storm.
  13. jm1220
    The one and only time I was rooting against a major nor'easter, a week after Sandy (happy anniversary). One way or another we were screwed but I think it shifted east at the last minute and gave the NYC area 6-8" snow and lighter wind vs warm/rain and hurricane force winds which were expected. The snow demolished many of the trees we still had standing, caused more structural damage to ruined homes, did no favors to the hundreds of thousands still without power and shut the rails down. I slept on my friend's couch in Manhattan after the LIRR shut down. But yeah that was a notable one. Another one was 11/15/18, totally unexpected 4-6" of glop immediately pre-rush hour in 3-4 hours down to LI and NYC after a brief rain/snow mix was expected. That was total chaos and a cars/trucks graveyard on every road.
  14. jm1220
    With a sharp ridge axis where it is over the Rockies on that run, you would think it's an amped outcome on the East coast.
  15. jm1220
    Yep. Hard to bet against it.
  16. jm1220
    That rain pivot axis in central Suffolk around Rt 112 looks like it had the best rain totals of the whole area, over 6” and they were also stuck under some heavy bands even just outside that area. Looks like I had about 4.5” in Huntington Station.
  17. jm1220
    Probably 4” or so total where I am. It’s been breezy for a while but I don’t think anything over 35mph. Some small branches down.
  18. jm1220
    Breezy here but no strong winds where I am. I’m not near the water here so not too surprising.
  19. jm1220
    There certainly were gusts into the 70s in my neighborhood given the amount of tree damage and the fact there was little rain-just really some showers east of the track. With this, gusts in the 50s to 60mph will cause trees to go down given how saturated the ground is. That’ll mostly be for the shore areas especially out east in Suffolk but it’s also all about how close the low gets as it pinwheels. For more wind you want it more tucked for sure.
  20. jm1220
    Yep. Good moderate intensity here, better than radar would indicate.
  21. jm1220
    Rain starting to push back west a bit.
  22. jm1220
    We have still a long ways to go. The rain pushing back south won’t be as heavy as the front end but it’ll still be 1-3 more inches probably.
  23. jm1220
    Yep. The LLJ is also pushing north which means once the rain stops the winds should subside for a while. The parent low will die off and the one offshore will take over, meaning the rain will pivot back south and winds increase as it pinwheels. If this was winter, this front end batch would be a driving rain for most of us or snow to rain because of that tucked in low reflection near JFK. The precip pivoting back south would be snow due to the offshore low taking over.
  24. jm1220
    Yep there's going to be a pivot point somewhere over LI/S CT where the heavy rain will sit and eventually come back south. That's the area that will really get drenched with the 4-5"+ amounts.
  25. jm1220
    HRRR would be a nightmare anywhere near the coast. Has big rain amounts too, 3-5" areawide. Lots of tree damage if that materializes.
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