jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Our coldest air masses come down from due north as others noted. The strong NW winds also downslope somewhat which causes heating, and come from the modifying lakes.
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12 here.
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We could really use some confluence to force an offshore track. A vigorous trough like that will want to cut somewhere. The ridge out west nudging east would also help.
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Down to 13 here. I agree that this airmass isn’t all that impressive. Here and gone in a day. We probably have a few hours left for temps to go down before the airmass rushes out and we start rising again.
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We have a few days before we start needing to worry about track. The big signal for now is a storm, not much else specifically.
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Not to get into the weeds too much but it was a gut punch here with 3” washed away by the time the dry slot mercifully arrived and put an end to the pain. 12-18” was forecast a day before but the NW trend writing on the wall was there. Ensembles seem to be decently east of these tracks which is a bit reassuring at this stage. Very nice 500mb depiction so if that does pan out someone’ll get a big storm for sure. Hopefully it doesn’t amp like crazy.
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Still way too early to hone in on a track but the signal for a big storm is there. It would definitely be useful for some confluence/blocking to show up to force the track offshore. A 3/14/17 type hugger is definitely on the table without it or even an inland runner.
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Not where he lives. In N NJ it was a few inch event I think. These +PNA, +NAO patterns can be dry/cold/suppressed which wouldn't surprise me if happened again. Also a lot of wave interference with too many S/W ruining opportunities for amplification. It's too early to write off anything but I agree the best opportunity may be as we're transitioning back to a warmer pattern.
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Patchy/piles generally. My backyard is still mostly full coverage.
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My backyard still has full coverage but will be patchy soon. Front yard just patches.
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This windy mild moist airmass is a snowpack killer. Most of us will be down to patches and mall piles by the time we go below freezing again.
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Very sorry for your loss, Snowman.
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Low of 7 so far at Westhampton.
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The most recent ice event in Long Beach where I grew up may have been the Valentines Day 2007 storm, where there was enough ice to make tree limbs bend/break. 93-94 may also have had a couple of ice events. It’s a good amount more common where I live now. A few times there’s been a glaze to a slightly thicker coating of ice since I moved here 3 years ago that were cold rain on the south shore.
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Still in the teens here, already above freezing in Long Beach and Jones Beach. When the winds kick up overnight, our temps here will go up in a hurry.
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18 here. Frigid wintry environment tonight.
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The 8+ amounts looked common from LGA east to Port Jeff. Crazy difference between LGA and Central Park-4” difference in a few miles. The jackpot locally may have been N Nassau. A couple of 9” amounts there.
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We were under a part of the heavy frontogenesis band that nailed CT and MA. HRRR/RAP finally picked up on it and got rid of the bogus subsidence area it had in CT as it was taking place. This really was a nowcast storm but some of the mesos did have a heavy band in this area for a few runs.
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We benefitted from part of the heavy fronto band that blasted CT and MA, which provided great snow growth. The VVs shown on some models greatly helped. Only limiting factors were the fast movement and the fact it was only starting to really get together at our area.
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The champs for our sub forum look to be Smithtown with 9.1” and Glen Cove with 9.3”. Numerous 8-9” reports from Port Jeff to LGA on the north shore.
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Nice totals right down to the south shore too. Lido Beach reported 7.5”.
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The temp is below freezing so no. Compacting sure due to the fluff factor
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Last few flurries here. I’m going with 8”.
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Wow, nice! Still light snow here as well.
