jm1220

It’s always been clear we’d need Atlantic help this year to stop an awful Pacific pattern. The -PDO is the worst on record and that pattern will blast the lower 48 with warmth without blocking.

If there won’t be any snow I’d rather it be warm. Nothing worse than wasted cold. That’s why the 19-20 winter wasn’t so terrible to me. Very little wasted cold, just wall to wall warm. The worst for me are the ones where there are rainy warm cutters that are frigid behind the cold front, then keep repeating.

Quick flights from Tokyo to L.A. at least. Plane likely barely uses any gas.

Sometimes I wish we could accelerate continental drift and close the Pacific off.

That’ll be the outcome this winter with no NAO help. We need something to slow the PAC jet down. We see already how it’s blasting into the lower 48 but there’s been some help from Atlantic blocking. That might be going away soon.

We had 30” of snow in February last winter in some places. We want Dec to produce but it’s one month.

Light snow in Melville.

LGA probably had a wind from the water which is still well above freezing. The extreme north shore was also struggling to get below freezing here. I think I got down to 23 a few miles south of the sound.

23 here. Coldest of the season by a few degrees.

LOL. I guess there has to be a first time in history where that happens. The usual Central PA Middle Finger lives on here so maybe it’s not complete bunk?

Easy setup to fall apart if the trough becomes more progressive/less amped. You want the strong vort to close off south of you-weaker/progressive no dice. As Bluewave showed, the PAC Jet might be having its say.

We need whatever help we can get from the NAO. The record cold SST west of Canada are definitely not what we want. It’ll keep trying to build a trough there especially after Dec when climo Nina gets more hostile.

We’ll have to see if it can actually get there and stay there. Not sure if someone can bring up whether it’s been predicted recently and never got there.

Looks like temps dropped 3-5 degrees overnight when the wind went calm. Radiational cooling FTW.

If you’re expecting pretty much any snow in NYC this time of the year you’re likely to be disappointed. Still way too early to bank on any outcome. Hopefully it’s cold enough for some snow showers at the end down here. Any more is a big bonus.

The one on 2/1 was just fine for NYC. 17” in Central Park and rain in Boston. But generally yes you want to be further NE for best chances. Any blocking we can have would be great so the storm slows down.

Seems that when we can get a good snow event in December it’s a good predictor of a higher than average snow season. Last year we had the Dec snow event where most of us had 6”+ and we mostly ended above 40” for the winter. In 2010-11 we had the big 12/26/10 event and we ended up well above average. But in other winters where December has little, we usually end up below average. I’m sure Don/Bluewave etc can produce better stats on this but we want for at least some decent event in Dec. Nina winters also generally are front loaded.

Was a sloppy 3” here that turned to heavy rain and was gone by the end. Pretty infuriating. The writing was on the wall with the late NW trend but it looked like we could salvage 6-8” at least. That happened in the city where there were huge piles from all the sleet. That storm can rot forever.

We need all the help we can get from the Atlantic this year to hold the Pac jet off and force storms to track south of us. When the blocking breaks down it's likely endless cutters since the trough will keep trying to form out west with the -PNA.

Definitely was a nice February that year but disappointing March. 3/14/17 was 100 miles away from burying the whole area.

Not necessarily. Most of us had 40" or more snow last winter with it being above average temps. Average snow has been increasing with the temps. It definitely won't last forever but we're moving to a climate where we have 2-3 big storms give us snow vs numerous smaller storms.

03-04 I remember as being particularly frigid. The early Jan clipper in single digits that dropped 8” of powder, icebergs forming in the saltwater back bays, ice cutters on the Hudson etc.

Somewhat OT but for fans of Deadliest Catch, it seems when they have the awful, cold, stormy winters to deal with we bake. Hopefully for us there’s no ice and few storms there.

We need the Aleutian ridge to stick its head as far north as possible. That means cold air can at least get mixed into the pattern via cross polar flow. If that ridge is flat, maritime air floods the continent.

Glad I live a few miles away from the sound. It really can make a difference in Dec-for example Northport on the sound might get some slush but a few miles inland it can be a couple degrees colder and it accumulates better when the sound is still warm.