jm1220

Sometimes models overadjust when they sense a change from new data. The southern stream DC to ACY snow event this winter overadjusted on models when they saw suddenly it would be much further north. We were supposed to get 3-5" on some models in NYC but it ended up tons of virga.

Sure we have. I remember expecting a minor to moderate event on 1/3/18 because the system was riding too far east. Last minute west trend for the next day got me up to 14-15". 1/272015 had the epic Euro vs world battle until the end. Even before 1/25/16 the snow was supposed to stay south of Philly mostly and then blasted north at the very end. These are much different systems but there's often tons of volatility with these to the end. That said, the trend toward broadening the trough and delaying the consolidation of the different lows/features isn't what we want. We still have time for it to reverse enough to make a difference at least near the city. Hopefully it hits the Atlantic rocket fuel and takes off right away.

If you insist.

Starting to have that Jan 2015 feel to it where we're waiting here for the low to bomb and start tracking north and Boston is licking its chops. We're getting back to "it's salvageable" with these east ticks and broader trough coming in. We need the capture/phase as soon as possible. Always a nailbiter on the SW side of these.

UKMET went east a good amount. Verbatim warning level would be E Suffolk only. What a laughable model, like the NAM. Absurd.

GGEM looks a lot like the RGEM, went east a bit. Warning level snow makes it about 30mi NW of the city. LI has 10-12" using 10-1 maps.

MECS for NYC isn't off the table. And HECS/MECS depends on where you're talking about. For E Suffolk and up to Boston it's more likely than not.

Take the bickering and arguing elsewhere.

GFS will get there eventually. What it prints verbatim I wouldn't worry about.

I'd say by tomorrow night 10-11pm. That's when some light snow looks to be spreading into the area. Snow is heavy late overnight into the afternoon.

It's about being stuck in a lucky band too. If you're in an area of crappy lift, expect crappy ratios. That's before the wind gets to breaking the flakes apart. Not to say it won't be above 10-1 in some places near the coast but the Kuchera 15-1 ratios or whatever won't happen. Maybe well inland where winds are less, but the good banding probably won't make it there to help with lift.

1/4/18 might be a decent analog for this-where the cutoff sets up, not the storm evolution. The "hope" line for me is I-287/87 to I-84 on east. NW of there I think is done for more than a few inches. I definitely do buy the sharp cutoff idea and we'll be riding where the western fronto band can make it.

It might, might not. I'm not too concerned about it.

This winter not really but it’s better to have it than not at this point. It’s also hopefully a precursor to a really good GGEM run.

Hopefully we can get this to track inside the Benchmark then have the stall/capture just south of Cape Cod like the GGEM/UK had last night. That’s how NYC can get annihilated. And obviously the east shuffles from the Euro need to stop.

Yep exactly why we want the early phase and cutting off the upper low. This setup is great for Boston and eastern Suffolk but NYC needs a little help to be in a good spot. The help definitely still has time to happen.

It can happen if we have convective blowups on the east side of the storm. The storm will start to compete with itself in a way between that convection and the mid level forcing and dynamics to the west. That broadens the storm more than we want.

And needless to say hopefully this double barrel low idea is a mistake. That’s what’s helping the Euro keep ticking east.

Looks great but hopefully the trough is a little less broad. Does look a little more negative tilt ready. We want the early close off.

Plenty of people are accepting that. I definitely am. It likely ends up the 50 mile range again between a very nice easy warning event and a small nuisance. Hopefully that’s west of the city so the most can enjoy it.

Ratios are determined by what happens in the cloud not surface temps. That part will help but if we see 50mph gusts, the flakes get broken up and ratios are close to 10-1 regardless. I’ve seen several systems where we had teens but tiny or sand flakes with lousy snow growth.

I guess we’ll see. It really can happen, happened with our last storm. Hopefully the UK/GGEM last night didn’t overcorrect. GFS still being stubborn obviously but it’s probably way too suppressed and it’s up to old tricks. My ‘bar’ for NYC is a 4-6” type event, be thrilled with more than that.

It’s been on this amped trend which other models look to be picking up which is a feather in its cap here it seems. 0z and 6z both went east though and now NYC is at the edge of a warning event on the model. Want that to reverse obviously. It has the stall/capture too far NE.

Uhm, yes. 2" liquid from the city east and 20+ inches at 10:1 ratio. Would be a NAM like annihilation. Perfect track for us and upper lows blowing their top right over us.

Wow.