jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Had a coating here in Long Beach which is gone now. Anything's good today anyway. Merry Christmas Eve!
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The -PNA in record territory is bringing the storminess further south.
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I have to agree. The worst for me are the teases and heavy rain to cold to more rain.
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Parts of the CA Sierra have 300"+ of snow printed out on the last GFS throughout its run. That's just insane. Just an onslaught there. Good for them but it'll be hard to see us doing very well with that continuing and the trough digging there. We want the West warm and dry.
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Not the winter for those.
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A pattern like this won’t do it. Gradients like this mean Boston can rack up big totals like crazy while we 33 rain (maybe won’t be like that specifically but it will be like that somewhere). That’s why for our sake hopefully the PNA can be at least toward neutral.
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I’d certainly want to see the PNA at least trend toward neutral for our area. Otherwise I agree we risk another 07-08 with rounds of SWFEs that blast I-90 and do us no good. The SE ridge is beneficial though (not overwhelming) since it forces the storms to turn north and not suppress out to sea.
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Well, one bit of good news is all the snow/rain CA is forecast to keep getting. The 384hr GFS at 12z shows something like 20 total feet of snow in the Sierras and 10+ inches of rain everywhere else there. Awesome for them-then let the ridge build, warm sun come out and we get our turn.
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Some of those same areas under the moderate risk had up to 12” snow less than a week ago. Crazy is right.
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In this pattern if it pans out we’ll hopefully get clipper type systems to track underneath us and redevelop. Essentially the definition of Miller B. Nina seasons like these aren’t known for Miller A systems.
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Yep just like the PNA which seems to run in similar cycles. The 60s had much of that time with -NAO -PNA.
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We have a chance at something decent if the Aleutian ridge can really pop. If it stays too South based the gradient won’t establish far enough south for us and the SE ridge will dominate.
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Heavy rain in Long Beach. Decently gusty winds but nothing crazy.
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Typical of Nina winters. The upper Midwest is usually favored for big winters then along with the Northwest.
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Light snow continuing here. Also a light slushy coating on cars and grass. Nice to see.
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It’s that we have a great run for a few weeks like in Feb or we get shut out these days. Patterns seem to get stuck in place for longer and hit the same areas. It’s why we have few normal seasons anymore-either way above or below normal. There’s some hope towards the end of the month if the west coast ridge can rebuild. But I’d like to see something good happen in December to think we’ll end up with a snowy winter. Statistically a good December is much better than a lousy one for the winter to end up snowier than normal especially in a Nina which are usually front loaded.
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Ninas are known for cutters and SWFEs and it looked for a time like this could be one of them. But the fast flow won out and the system just won’t be able to get itself together in time to affect us. There’s no consolidated system until it’s well out to sea.
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I have to think Nam is out to lunch until other guidance jumps onto anything more than a minor nuisance event.
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Hopefully this can be a nice little event. I’ll definitely be wrong about this being a SWFE due to the fast pattern but maybe it can amp enough for an advisory snow event east of the city. Either way with whatever we get in December should be appreciated. If I had to guess right now I’d say an inch or two from the city on east but possibility for a little more if the Nam is correct.
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Queen Elizabeth set me free!
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you and your stats and facts I’d love for it to somehow work out for us with this storm but we’re working ourselves up for disappointment (near the coast) in a setup like this. Maybe this can be the one that works out but I doubt it. We need blocking and the pattern being slowed down for a storm to work out this Nina season.
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Exactly-I’m not counting on anything until it’s under 72hrs. These can easily trend north significantly at the end.
