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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Euro has Rt 22 as perhaps the line where sleet really cuts down totals-UNV 5.0" this run (NW PA up to 8"), AOO about 3", JST a little over 1". Tomorrow should be fun for you guys, hopefully the mid levels aren't cooked too early but I remember all the bad reminders I lived through in State College where the sleet line stopped for nothing. If it comes in heavy hopefully it gets held off. South of the Turnpike looks mostly like an ice (sleet) event of some type regardless.
  2. jm1220
    North/South shore gradient seems to be a theme on models today. Definitely feasible-southerly winds are a kiss of death a lot sooner on Captree than Sunken Meadow. It eventually cooks both but the extra 90 mins or so could mean an additional 1-2" if it's during heavy precip.
  3. jm1220
    You mean OKX=Upton more than Boston? I very much doubt it unless it really does come in like a wall down here. We run the risk of the fairly typical in SWFE hour long moderate snow burst followed by mini dryslot where we warm up on southerly winds then white rain/rain/slop when the real stuff comes in. OKX is pretty far east in Suffolk County, susceptible to the torch on south winds and will warm up fast if that lull happens. If you mean NYC it could happen if that precip min is real in eastern Mass. I think a chunk of the storm is rain down here but we have more precip overall. The southerly winds will eventually win out even with this airmass, it could spike up to 40 for a while. It could be a lousy inch or so if the lull happens or it really could be 3-4" if it pounds for a few hours and the warmth can be held off. Our max down here is 3-4" pretty sure. At least it shouldn't be a long enough period of rain to wash it all away but it'll still be quite forgettable. BOS will still be ahead of us in the seasonal snow totals anyway regardless. Lousy winter all around though so far.
  4. jm1220
    The NAM shows this risk-3k and 12k. There's a good initial burst of snow at 1-3pm, but it may lead to a mini dry slot after that for a couple hours since (another feature of SWFEs often around here), the main WAA shoots NW of us and we're left waiting for the meat of the precip around dusk, when it may be marginal for snow near the city and coast due to it being dry and there's that couple of hours for southerly flow to warm everything up. It may happen or may not but it's a possibility. If it's really a solid wall of snow that comes into NYC, it'll hold off the warming at the surface and there won't be the couple hour period with showery stuff.
  5. jm1220
    Seems like the initial burst then long lull could be an issue too. Time to warm everything up on S winds in the showery precip, then the meat of it is rain or mix. Again just seems like so much could go wrong that it’s foolish to predict over 3” in NYC.
  6. jm1220
    Congrats Glen Cove Rd/Clinton Rd/Grand Ave Corridor
  7. jm1220
    I don’t think anyone in the city other than maybe parts of the Bronx get over 3”. They might as well as some hilly parts of Nassau and N Suffolk. Otherwise I think it’s generally 1-3”. More than this should really be reserved for places N/W.
  8. jm1220
    The cold dry air in place is the saving grace. Too bad the snow couldn’t be faster getting here, because this airmass is hauling out of here as fast as it came in, and the little delays mean a lot.
  9. jm1220
    Too early to rule out sleet or rain cutting back on accums in the city. What I think is helping is that winds may come out of the SW instead of due south or SE. SW is off land and not as warming. Long Island still gets skunked on that since SW is still off water there.
  10. jm1220
    That map includes sleet which again might overinflate it since warm mid levels may be a factor.
  11. jm1220
    What may help slightly especially around NYC is if the wind is SW instead of S or SSE. SW wind is off land at least vs off the ocean. On LI it doesn’t really matter. Mid level warm layers are also always something to watch in SWFEs and there could be sleet that also cuts down accums. Lots can always go wrong in SWFEs down here.
  12. jm1220
    I think 3” is too high for JFK. I’d go 1-2” there. LGA and Central Park maybe 3”. If this comes in heavy and can last a few hours before changing over, all bets are off though. It’ll really be about watching the radar and how strong the onshore wind gets tomorrow.
  13. jm1220
    Advisories expanded to everyone except SE Suffolk. I’m still thinking forgettable in general but maybe some on the north shore make it to 3”.
  14. jm1220
    Might be time for advisories at least in northern Queens Nassau and Suffolk.
  15. jm1220
    But it showed 30” through the end of the run for NYC 3 days ago
  16. jm1220
    Still think it’ll be forgettable/lousy in general on the island other than maybe north of the Northern State or Rt 25 where it could be a couple degrees colder for most of it than the south shore. Maybe an inch on the south shore and 2” on the north shore isn’t exactly nail biting.
  17. jm1220
    That’s often another problem with these-the initial warm advection precip overshoots our area to the north/west. Not expecting much with this anywhere near the coast at this point, if it’s anything more than an inch be happy. The delayed start is another downer on this-more time for the cold airmass to erode.
  18. jm1220
    Probably a lot of sleet in central PA that some maps combine with snow and show bigger amounts than reality. A lot of sleet is a risk here with the mid level lows going so far north. That will rush mid level warm air in and change it from snow. A rule of thumb is to assume the snow maps are significantly overdone when the 850mb low goes NW of you. I learned that lesson the VERY hard way with the Valentines Day 2007 storm that had maps with 20” south of I-80 and in State College we were getting heavy sleet after maybe 4-5” fell (we had another 6” the next day from the coastal system). Always assume the mid level warmth is underdone in systems like these that cut to the west.
  19. jm1220
    I lived in TX for two years. Of course I missed the biggest snowstorm to hit my backyard since 1996 and maybe even before (Jonas in 2016).
  20. jm1220
    Our average is what it is for a reason. We had to pay for the bonanzas with lousy seasons like these.
  21. jm1220
    I’m flying out of JFK on Sat afternoon, so I’d prefer all or mainly rain.
  22. jm1220
    We’re halfway through Met winter and NYC has under 3”. That’s well below average at this point-about one third of average in fact. By now Central Park should be at 8”. Islip is at 4.7” and should be at 8.8”. Bridgeport’s at 5.7” and should be at 9.2”. We still have a long way to go but it’s not whining to say it’s been a very lousy season so far.
  23. jm1220
    I have about 6” and I’m 30 miles East of the city, but yeah-putrid so far here. Newark has a little over 5” this season. The city itself lost out on some marginal events that accumulated more outside the city. But being halfway through met winter and having 6” or less is quite depressing.
  24. jm1220
    Yikes. Another trend with these SWFE type events is they try to cut as much as possible. If anything it might just keep amping up.
  25. jm1220
    We’re not at the point yet where the SE ridge won’t be a big problem and storms won’t try to cut for the lakes. Maybe at the end of the month if the MJO helps. We have a decent airmass to start but the strong south winds will moderate that fast. I’m personally not in the mood for another slushy inch or two to a washout but it’s what the pattern supports. Often these trend more amped at the end anyway (and we’re nowhere near the end with this)
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