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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Not totally on its own. The RAP 15z has 4"+ rain areawide. I guess we';ll see later what kind of rain builds SE after this overrunning portion clearly went to the far northern part of the region.
  2. jm1220
    Well …. RGEM still has a ton of rain, 4-6” some spots more for I-95, NYC/LI and less NW. It’s either in for a huge coup or slamming flat on its face.
  3. jm1220
    Yes. The storm amplified more at the end, and as always the ridge seemed to get stronger and drive everything north. A few days ago actually may have been more accurate in that models were trending north of NYC for the heaviest rain, but then we had the head fake back south for a day.
  4. jm1220
    Yup. Yesterday at this time it looked like a consensus was bringing the heaviest rain over NYC/metro area.
  5. jm1220
    Still a chance the heavy rain makes it a little further south and gets the northern part of NYC/our area especially with 4-6” rain. The Nam 3K would certainly do it. We’ll have to see what happens overnight. But yes CT and Hudson Valley look to get slammed here.
  6. jm1220
    Oh it’ll be a big deal somewhere. But the trend is for it to be N of NYC. 1-3” rain there is no big deal. Henri was 8” in Central Park. I’ll gladly take a pass on this one. Not in any way saying it’ll be a bust. The Hudson Valley, Catskills etc will get slammed for sure.
  7. jm1220
    RGEM is still quite nasty for just about everyone with 3-6" of rain everywhere. UKMET stayed sold on big rain everywhere. Even the 3k NAM has more rain tot he south than the 12k. Can't sleep on this just yet for the coastal areas.
  8. jm1220
    The "no big deal near NYC" models lift/arc that batch of rain to the north soon and dryslot the immediate metro. We'll see how it evolves. There are already flash flood warnings near Philly.
  9. jm1220
    GFS way north. East of NYC in areas get 1" or less.
  10. jm1220
    Awesome. Keep it going north.
  11. jm1220
    We have to see where the warm front sets up. Models could tick back south with it. I'd say the best shot of anything excessive now though is N/W of the city.
  12. jm1220
    It’ll be north of where the warm front sets up. There’ll be heavy rain in spots south of it along with possible severe but north of the warm front is where that heavy steady rain will be. 12z models all trended that front north. It’s also probably helpful for severe that the worst of the storm here will be at night.
  13. jm1220
    12z Euro back to pretty far north. For NYC, LI and south of I-78 it's 1-2" pretty much. Big amounts over 5" are in NE PA, parts of N NJ and I-84 corridor. The trough amplifying and stronger ridge as usual seem to be bumping it north. Keep the trend going!!
  14. jm1220
    Geez. I-78 would become the I-78 Rapids on that map.
  15. jm1220
    Looks like overall a trend back north here. RGEM shifted quite a bit. GFS has the heaviest rain along I-84.
  16. jm1220
    NAM back north again but wow at the 3k. Basically 5-9" rain for the whole subforum.
  17. jm1220
    The water table for most areas must be high enough that basements will flood with those kind of totals even away from rivers. Not good.
  18. jm1220
    Looks like there's consensus forming which unfortunately looks like the heaviest rain across the metro area/NJ/LI. RGEM shifted north at 6z when it's been south for a while. 5" for the south shore and 4" elsewhere around NYC/LI. 7" rain in Monmouth/Ocean Counties. Hudson Valley/N NJ mostly 1-3".
  19. jm1220
    That's the 0z map. The 6z has 4"+ for the area from I-80 and Tappan Zee bridge south. It definitely shifted south with the rain. So did the GFS.
  20. jm1220
    Could always see it keep going north due to the stronger ridge. Hard to bet against it. I agree. I've seen way more than enough rain.
  21. jm1220
    My brother lives in Lake Worth, FL and was there for Dorian. It's insane (lucky) how he had some gusty showers pretty much but 100 or so miles east over Grand Bahama Island was annihilated. The PBI to MIA stretch is incredibly overdue for a bad one and the check will come due soon. Once north of NC hurricanes completely change to much more broad impacts. The worst of Sandy was actually 100 miles N of the center.
  22. jm1220
    Great job!!
  23. jm1220
    There won't be 10" of rain from this but the 4-6" here for most would definitely cause problems. Probably lots of flooding near any rivers which I'm sure are still full from runoff during Henri.
  24. jm1220
    Gas appliances are rare down south, it's mostly electric stoves. For those who do though-great. Thankfully the levees held in NOLA. Them being repaired/rebuilt recently I'm sure helped. The western suburbs though look horrendous.
  25. jm1220
    Nam is probably overdone with the rain but some areas could definitely see 3-5" with this. With the ground being so saturated it will present problems quickly for river basins.
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