jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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The northern stream screwed it for us. It’s diving down west of our storm and amping the flow way too much. It’s essentially being hooked due north by the northern stream diving in.
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Thing is it’s continued trending west to where now most of upstate NY and PA are also shafted by the dry slot and mid level warmth. Essentially you have to be all the way west to I-77 in PA to have an all snow event and not worry about the dry slot. A couple of days ago it looked like it was good to I-81. Apps runners are rare but it looks like this one’ll do it.
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Good luck with this storm out there. Hopefully sleet/ice don’t cut into it too much. Lots of sleetfests when I went to PSU.
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HRRR isn’t in its optimal range yet. I wouldn’t pay much attention to it until the event’s almost here.
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Still only 17 here in Long Beach. Low was 10-11.
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I stand corrected, Buffalo even gets screwed on this NAM run. If I was still at PSU, I’d be seriously pissed right now. For us, our fate’s been sealed for a while. Wind and flooding will be a significant concern.
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It’s essentially becoming a cutter. But from that longitude it’s crazy. Storms that pass through S AL/GA almost always become offshore bombs for us or coastal huggers, not hard left to where the NAM takes it. When has there been a storm that gave Charlotte an ice storm, Asheville big snow that then buried Buffalo to Cleveland?
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Where those 850mb winds suddenly die down in W PA and NY near BUF/ROC/ERI will get slammed with heavy snow as a result of that. All that fast easterly flow will rise straight up where that sudden die off happens.
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Even central PA on most models has a big chunk of the storm as sleet or ZR now. That warm mid level SE flow is no joke and it seems to really show up the closer in you get on the models. Maybe the occlusion starts helping places N of I-84 but it looks dicey.
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Couldn’t really care less what Accuweather says here. If they’re saying 3-6” for NYC in this, they’re a joke. Maybe 3-6 mangled flakes at the start.
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If the 850 and 700mb lows stay wrapped up and west of us, there’s little chance of any more than very brief snow at the start in the city that’s quickly gone/over to heavy rain. The surface low track isn’t too relevant for us. The flow is from the E/SE aloft and at the surface which warms us up fast.
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GFS and NAM both bring 70mph gusts to the coast. Not sure how those do in terms of overestimating wind speeds. All models have a very impressive mid level jet at 850-925mb that can do some damage if they mix down.
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It’s probably overdone but the wind threat only seems to be increasing over time. 70mph gusts would be quite damaging especially since they’re coming from an onshore direction and would pile in water.
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Geez, 80mph gusts into NYC?
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I’d hoist high wind watches for LI/NYC for Monday if I was Upton. It’s becoming pretty clear this is a threat. Coastal flood watches as well.
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For sure. When you see a roaring SE mid level jet like models are showing, a lot of the snow maps on the SE edge are going to be overdone because you know the sleet line is going to explode northward. On the west side of the storm though there definitely will be an axis of heavy snow totals since those winds slow down and cause a region of quickly rising air where the deform axis forms. Unfortunately that’ll be way far west-if you believe the NAM it’ll be from E OH to Buffalo up into Canada. Concerning how much of that jet is shown to mix down near the coast. If it coincides with high tides there could be some serious problems in vulnerable flooding spots since ESE winds will pile in lots of water.
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NAM can be overdone with the mid level warmth but it’s usually closer to reality than the globals.
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NAM is so warm in the mid levels that it switches almost the whole state of PA to an ice storm. I have to think that’s a little extreme but goes to show that anyone in our area that starts as snow, it’ll be quite brief.
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Yikes. 70 mph right up to the coast. There’ll definitely be outages and flooding if that happens. I’ll be in Long Beach this weekend, could be some washovers.
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We’re not really concerned with the surface low tracks at this point. Pay a lot more attention to the mid level lows which still look to go well inland. They also have plenty of time before getting here to wrap in warm air since the storm is maturing. Models still show a very powerful SE jet at the mid levels which will warm those layers up quickly.
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It’s not news that NYC is generally a lousy place for snow. Central Park averages 30” annually (boosted considerably by how lucky we’ve been in the last decade) while the Catskills average 70+. Syracuse averages over 120”. I noticed @sferic moved to Cicero near Syracuse. Hate it that much, do what he/she did. We have boom and bust cycles lately where we have a monster 30” Feb 2021 or little/nothing.
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And this is a big storm even if for most of us it’ll be rain. That SE jet means business and the Euro had gusts over 70 mph near the coast. We might have moderate to major coastal flooding in spots too. That’ll be the main story in this sub forum.
