jm1220

The idea that a wide swath was getting 10" of snow from that was likely overdone, yes. Maybe someone would but it seemed to be an area of more moderate snow that would be a 3-6" type deal. Hopefully tomorrow many of us get a few (more) inches, I wouldn't start hoping for more than that yet. One area it looks like I was wrong about was Boston-the city at least has been mostly rain and they're relying on part 2 for any more just like we are. They'll also be in the upper 30s or over 40 for quite a bit longer. East winds are torching them. Albany and the western half of MA have been the place to be for sure.

This is probably beyond the HRRR's good time range for part 2.

Getting windier here, trees are shaking pretty good. The ice/snow from earlier is all melted now. The dividing line for that here seemed to be around the LIE/Northern State. I drove from Long Beach this afternoon in rain/some sleet, then around Garden City the ground started to whiten. By Jericho Turnpike in Syosset it was half snow/sleet mix and the roads/ground were covered. Streets were horrendous when it was coming down.

With the north wind that would come with part 2, the surface temps should drop to freezing or close, enough for it to accumulate right away or quickly.

Hopefully the NAM is onto something for MBY anyway, was getting concerned about east of NYC consistently being dryslotted. What happens from the second part will be quite fickle and still nearly 24hrs away for most-the final story isn't close to here yet.

It’s not a surprise, and doesn’t mean much for the second part of the storm. There’s East wind driving in warm ocean air and will continue until the low starts pulling away. The question is how quick the upper low develops and where it tracks, this will cool us back down. Also, where the associated snow bands form.

Snow sleet mix in S Huntington. Coating on all surfaces including roads-which are treacherous.

I-90 jackpot on the Euro tonight and not much from any CCB. Essentially 1-3" from the city east, between the front/end. Ouch. Fills in CT as well to kick us even worse.

The I-90 feasting table will be banging and rowdy-lots of fisticuffs over a pivoting stray 3"/hr band or coastal enhancement. Hopefully the drunken Southie will slam down hard enough on his knuckles to make room for the drumstick, half pumpkin pie, leftover potatoes, cranberry sauce to mush down under the table. Or the Albany/Hudson Valley part of the table (kiddy table-they downslope a lot) will take pity on the begging dog and throw down a biscuit.

Jamaica Bay Jackpot? Flukes for the win? Broad Channel Bonanza? Thanks for your insight Don, still thinking 3-6" for NYC?

Coney Island to Sandy Hook Special on the Rgem. Party at Ambrose Light?

In all seriousness where the CCB band (table scraps) ends up and what that ends up as is far from settled. It’ll be a nowcast situation.

The redeveloping low has been trending toward hanging right off Fire Island and not clearing East until the dynamics weaken. Maybe that changes but it has to for whatever CCB to work out for East of the city.

We’re prepared for the table strips especially because the initial soaking rain cleanses our palates and sharp incisors.

I’m in LB now actually. For a fee I can remain here so you can enjoy what’s yours and I slink back on Tue AM.

Same overall situation applies as 3 days ago. We’re the poodles begging for table strips from the upper low, Boston on west I-90 and much of upstate NY feasts on the 25-lb turkey, stuffing, potatoes, pies, cranberry sauce, cookies, etc. The NAM, Euro earlier snuck us down a drumstick and mushed up pumpkin pie no one else wanted. I guess this run is the drool from the remainder of the raccoon and stray cat slaughtered carcass.

It’s been about where the backlash banding happens for us regardless. It’s been that way for 72 hours. Boston to the Catskills along with much of upstate NY and into NNE has been where to get the best of the storm. That’s been clear for quite some time. We’re the poodle yipping for table scraps.

And you can blame that on me moving up there. Guaranteed

The 6+ is based on a fairly narrow band developing and pivoting overhead. That can easily fall apart or be over another location, and NYC gets half that or less. The zone that should be the best overall for this hasn’t changed in 3 days: I-90 in MA, and much of upstate NY.

I could see my area doing quite well or total crap. Good luck to any forecaster.

In this case it’s just where the low decides to sit and if this banding really happens. It’s an energetic upper air system so it’s possible. The low is too close to Suffolk County for too long so it takes quite a while for the rain snow line to move East out of the city.

The low hovers too close to Long Island-hopefully it can trend East a little.

I’d say NYC and northern LI get an advisory for now. 2-5” is a generally good range for this area, which could be higher if the banding does happen.

It’s not far from the 12/5/03 case where the airmass was a little colder, and rain never made it to Long Island.

Yup, I’d say I-84 corridor/Rt 17 is in a good spot.