jm1220

Concerning at this point but it does show a lot of weakening before striking. It would be a mid-grade tropical storm when it reaches here. Coastal flooding would be pretty bad but not horrendous. It would be known a lot more for rain. And that would have a big impact if this slowdown/hook is real.

If this hook is real. someone SW of it 50 miles or so would get absolutely crushed by rain. It's like the 2/25/10 storm on steroids. And east of it would get a really nasty surge, maybe right into Providence. Hopefully it's wrong.

Water temps are 75-76 now. Not much cooling from seabreezes. They only raise the humidity.

Well it would permanently reduce the traffic on Rt 27 through Amagansett to Montauk at least.

Looks like there's some kind of PRE/tropical moisture feed on the modeling that comes in via the upper low that could give us a soaking regardless of how close Henri comes (I guess unless it shunts way east). Euro has 1.5-3" rain for most of us.

Carol took advantage of a mid level jet to charge it up as it headed north. Same with Sandy. This one wouldn’t have that advantage from what we can tell. It would spin around for a while and up well cooler water so it weakens. The models that bring it west slow it down also because it gets stuck under the ridge. A major hurricane (any hurricane really) has to be hauling as it gets up here. And there’s still a good chance at this lead time the interaction changes and it gets booted out to sea anyway. The threat to us at this point is still fairly low and even if it does hit it would likely weaken a lot before reaching us.

If the storm does slow down as it comes up here and pivots around, it wouldn't make landfall as a hurricane. It would probably do so as a 50-60mph tropical storm that would be known for coastal flooding due to it likely expanding its size by then and rain. The 12z GFS panels show that kind of wind when it would make it up here. It would pull in lots of cooler water quick which would weaken it. The only way it would really maintain strength is if it moves N or NW fast into the area as it strengthened where waters are warm enough or it phases into the trough somehow which is how Sandy strengthened Perfect Storm 1991 style and pivoted NW. This is no 1938-redux or anything like that. It could be pretty disruptive but not catastrophic like Sandy. Those comparisons should be thrown out.

Some serious heavy rain in central PA. Altoona airport reporting 2.16” rain in an hour. Feeder bands combining with upslope on the SE flow.

It’s time to pay attention I think but minor changes in the high/low orientation will affect greatly how it tracks. Could easily shift back to out to sea if the upper high over E Canada weakens or the trough becomes more of a kicker.

The WAR which makes almost every system go further west than expected up here.

I’m in Long Beach today and it was disgusting here too. I’m sure not as hot as my place but higher humidity might even it up. It’s that time of year.

My closest station up to 96 now. Would be hottest of the summer here.

94 now.

93 here.

Light rain with thunder here.

92 here as well. Back to disgusting/gross. Heat warning definitely warranted.

Again color me stunned, STUNNED. I’m having the usual few raindrops now that make it this distance east from the daily T-storm blowups in NJ. Yesterday’s was briefly light to moderate in my backyard and early this morning we had a brief downpour.

Color me stunned, STUNNED that strong T-storms are over Manhattan, Westchester and NE NJ again.

If we get our 40” snow season and we have 1-2 degrees above average I’m fine with it.

88 for the high here today. Not quite disgusting yet but definitely feeling the humidity again.

Essentially no temps over 100 in the urban corridor in TX this summer which is quite unusual. It’s also been wet when this time of year typically gets dry other than tropical systems there. Not a fan of the humidity that’s coming back regardless of the actual temps which might not be as hot as we thought.

Yup. Probably lots of 88/74 type conditions here. Upton might be right on the money minimizing the big heat east of NYC anyway.

Back to the way summers typically are near the coast.

Yep, trends are east this morning. Might just be the twin forks really.

These are consistently too hot. There won’t be 8 straight over 100 degree days in NYC.