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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    We should be good. Looks like the sleet line is stopping just south of Fire Island.
  2. jm1220
    It'll be close to maybe taking the #9 spot. I don't see 6" or more happening to move them higher than 9 but who knows, the pivot point doesn't look terrible there actually. My 18" guess for them might not be too bad in the end.
  3. jm1220
    Sleet really ain't so bad in the long term. Our Dec snowpack definitely hung on longer because of the sleet pounded into it and then froze into a brick.
  4. jm1220
    We probably get another 1-2" or so, so if you're at 12.5 I'd say 14-15" should about do it. There's another burst south of LI that hopefully comes through. Hard for me to say how much here from drifting but I might be a little less than you.
  5. jm1220
    Light snow again, no sleet here.
  6. jm1220
    It's trying. Hopefully we all can get another good burst out of that.
  7. jm1220
    Yup. I think it's the mid level lift pivoting away from some and therefore no/fewer snowflakes can form. Lower level lift would cause sleet pellets to form. If there's a heavier batch it probably goes back to snow. It's not warm air surging in at mid levels this time IMO.
  8. jm1220
    Might be trying to a little. Hopefully that keeps up. Still snowing hard here for now.
  9. jm1220
    The low eventually becomes vertically stacked but lows here would have the 700 low track to the west of the surface low and the 500 low west of that. That’s how the storm strengthens-it’s vertically tilted and air can rise quickly. When it becomes stacked all the lows are on top of each other and it starts weakening since the fast rising air stops. You really would rather the 700mb low go east of you for the best pivot point on the snow. East of it is where the dry air comes in.
  10. jm1220
    The lousy 700 low track is always a red flag to me for a fast dryslot. We should easily make it to 12” but the 15+ amounts aren’t happening east of the city unless radar really regenerates.
  11. jm1220
    The sleet is probably associated with the incoming dry slot-losing heavy precip allows the warm air to come in. Looks like the HRRR will be more correct with the dryslot unless more precip fires up south of here.
  12. jm1220
    Just measured 9.5-10” in a few spots. Light to moderate now but will pick up again soon!
  13. jm1220
    There’s no sleet here-all snow. A bit of a lull at the moment but the next band is coming in hot.
  14. jm1220
    I called for 18” at Central Park....
  15. jm1220
    Wow Long Beach to Captree getting obliterated.
  16. jm1220
    I highly doubt it. 20” could be doable but not 27.5” which is the record.
  17. jm1220
    There will be very little precip left when we get warm enough to change over.
  18. jm1220
    Just dumping outside here.
  19. jm1220
    It’s complete insanity outside right now. It’ll be awesome when it gets to you.
  20. jm1220
    Getting absolutely crushed now. Wow.
  21. jm1220
    Just about the only way something like this can happen in a mid-strong Nina this late in the season. Without it today would have been 55-60 and driving rain and Detroit would be seeing this.
  22. jm1220
    Just about heavy snow outside. Like a snow globe.
  23. jm1220
    Also races the dryslot in for the city and east. The NAM has it being a little delayed and actually has good snow/precip in NYC until dark. Hopefully the NAM's right.
  24. jm1220
    Starting to ramp up here as this death band crawls north.
  25. jm1220
    Up to about 6" now, some places slightly more, some less. Wind's picking up pretty significantly and starting to blow the snow around. Light to borderline moderate I'd say
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