jm1220

Use soundings, stay away from the snow maps.

I'd probably go 6-8" areawide at this point, except 3-6" in SE Suffolk and down along the NJ shore where it probably will mix/change to rain. Some of the banding features/lift on the meso models look impressive, and there could be higher amounts to 10" where those set up. Only inhibiting factor is the speed it's trucking along it. It'll be a less than 12 hour storm for most.

The GFS moved NW at 12z. It's too early to count out a late west trend. On the coast at least I'd be more worried about mixing cutting into totals than it being too suppressed. I don't think you need to worry about suppression until you're NW of I-84.

End time will be before then, I'd say it's over by dawn or soon after Monday. It'll be an 8-10 hour event for the most part.

Long Beach according to parents had an inch. I'll be there later this afternoon. Not too surprised since the immediate shore really struggled with sleet/rain for a while.

Pretty golden, I'd say if anyone goes over 6" it would be this area. But it wouldn't take too much of a NW trend at the end to have mixing come into play. If it stays like this at 0z tonight I'd say we're in for a decent event at least.

GFS actually went west a bit and got stronger with the precip. There's still time for last minute trends with this. I was thinking there might be an overtrend SE last night. I still wouldn't write off some mixing on the immediate coast.

My point/click has 3-7", so I'd think they'd issue a watch at least for western Suffolk and west. Start time for NYC looks to be about 6-7pm. Worst is 10pm-4am.

I'd say it's at least 3-6"/4-8" areawide outside of maybe the twin forks. It really comes down overnight. It won't be a blockbuster but this winter it might as well be.

I have about 4" outside now, very wet snow. May have been more and it settled beforehand, but I'd say 4-5" fell here. Nice scene outside for once.

Dual pol says it might be finally snowing in LB. Brutal.

Over 2". Still ripping.

The sleet line is heading south. Should be by you pretty soon. The low is headed offshore and taking the warm air SE with it.

Over an inch. Really pasty.

Cool-you're in Oceanside? Up by Merrick Rd?

Yep, definitely not high ratio stuff outside but it's heavy.

Crazy but based on dual pol, Amityville and points east south of 27A, and barrier islands Jones Beach to Fire Island are rain and staying that way since the sleet line stopped moving. Long Beach is probably sleet and rain mix. Heavy sleet in Massapequa, Bellmore, Merrick. Amazing how this seems to work out so many times on Long Island.

Ripping, about an inch of paste on the ground.

In a storm like this, the best place is just north of the sleet line. Models don't have the line advancing much further north-the coastal low should be headed ENE from here and drag cold air down. Sleet may tick north a little further but it won't surge, it's not like a SWFE. You may be one of the jackpot areas.

Still a ways from being above average. If 4" from tonight, would be at 15.5" at Central Park. If 8" more on Sun night, would be 23.5" at Central Park. Average is 27-28" I believe. And 12" between both events is still a stretch. I'm not convinced the next one doesn't trend back NW tomorrow once everything is sampled by 12z or so tomorrow. Either way, finally some good opportunities.

Heavy snow here and ground covered good, maybe half an inch.

Sleet line looks about as far north as it's going in NJ, parts of it are pulling back. But LI radar is showing the typical resistance to the sleet line clearing the south shore, or even making it there in Suffolk. Wouldn't be surprised if in LB it's raining with sleet mixed in.

I flew home 10 days after that storm hit, and all that was left were mall piles. Couldn't have been good to have all that snow melt right away, it's always better to have a solid snow cover like 2010-11 did.

Jan 2016 which I missed in Texas. (but yeah that really sucked) Long Beach definitely cashes in at times. The late March storm last winter was awesome when it went to town that night. A foot of paste on everything, and the boardwalk adds to all of it. 1/27/11 was insane for the 4 hours it dumped on us that night. Boxing Day 2010 was probably my favorite blizzard scene in LB. Jan 1996 is still my #1 snow event, but from what I heard Jan 2016 likely surpassed it. Southern Nassau/Queens was really the bullseye that time.

2/13/14 and 2/7/13 I will never forget. I'm easily owed 20" just between those two.