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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Maybe even here sleet won't be that big a deal. Looks in NJ if anything sleet is retreating SE.
  2. jm1220
    Mod to heavy snow here, couple of inches on the ground. I was concerned about sleet especially in the last few hours since the sleet line made fast north progress. Now however with the heavy precip it's stopped for now and may even sink south. HRRR has also gotten a little colder. So it's possible that the sleet won't advance much further than it already has and the lighter precip before allowed the sleet to race north like it did.
  3. jm1220
    That being said, HRRR got colder from last run. But it can be fickle.
  4. jm1220
    Looking at dual pol, the mix line is making pretty fast progress north. It's about 20 miles south of Long Beach. HRRR shows it hitting some resistance fairly soon, but with the very heavy activity also comes more warm air if you're near the coast.
  5. jm1220
    Yep, definitely. Moderate intensity now. 1" here too.
  6. jm1220
    Bust posts will be disappearing as soon as they're seen. Way too early to be calling anything like that. Analysis only.
  7. jm1220
    It probably won't matter in Central Park but the RAP has been too cold. It also has 13" near PHL and they've already gone to sleet. HRRR has been pretty consistent in bringing sleet into much of LI, even up to me. I don't think it would cut down on accums too much and the warm layer isn't too thick (meaning heavier rates could probably overcome it), but if you're east and definitely south of the city, I'd hedge on pinging at some point in this.
  8. jm1220
    Sleet for now looks to have stopped pushing north in PA/MD. Hopefully as the heavy rates come in, it can overcome some of the marginal warming in the column.
  9. jm1220
    Nice coating here on colder surfaces, and some accumulation now on pavement. Snow coming down at a good clip.
  10. jm1220
    It's sleeting in Philly, which I think is before they were expecting to per dual pol. HRRR is showing a warm layer just above 850mb that may try to sneak in.
  11. jm1220
    Light snow Huntington Station. Starting to stick a little on car tops. Amazing gradient in snow on the ground from yesterday driving north. North of the LIE/Northern State is really night and day in terms of snow left. I'm still fully snowcovered here, a couple-few inches in places. There was nothing but a few slushy piles in Long Beach.
  12. jm1220
    Some light rain in Long Beach. About to head back to Huntington before things get too dicey.
  13. jm1220
    I’d expect at least 3-5” there, since there’ll be several hours at least of good snow before warm air comes close. If I had to wager from going through countless of these type storms, I’d say it mixes at some point but there may not be much of the storm left by then.
  14. jm1220
    The two jackpot areas will probably be over the Hudson Valley/N NJ/SW CT where ratios are better and banding can set up, and just north of where the rain/sleet makes it and there’s the highest amount of precip. 12” is probably the max with this given how fast the storm’s hauling.
  15. jm1220
    The warm air surges in toward the end of precip, so hopefully the storm is mostly over by the time warm air arrives. As great as the RGEM was, I have to think it’s too cold given the slight amped trend in other models that bring heavy snow further inland. That also means more warm air.
  16. jm1220
    40” wouldn’t be way below average there. Isn’t your average about 45”?
  17. jm1220
    I doubt the problem this time would be subsidence but who knows-it could always be a factor if heavy banding sets up. Down in LB I’d be more worried about how far north the warm air gets and how much is left if the warm air makes it.
  18. jm1220
    Most of the city still looks good. I’d be a little concerned in the Rockaways and east from there-the RGEM has stayed cold but it’s hard to ride that by itself when the Euro is still getting marginal for a time on the immediate coast and the hi res short term models are doing the same thing. Hopefully a lot of it’s done by the time warm mid level air gets close.
  19. jm1220
    There won’t be hours of rain. It’ll be brief before the column cools down and snow makes it to the ground. That’s what’s happening in MD and PA now.
  20. jm1220
    They probably mean coastal Monmouth and Ocean Counties, especially south of Toms River. In that area a lot of what falls will probably be mix or rain. I-195 runs due east from Trenton.
  21. jm1220
    The crap about Snowman19, trolling, banning, etc can stop now. Thanks! Those posts will quickly go bye bye.
  22. jm1220
    The south shore (Nassau/W Suffolk) will be sweating the rain/snow line tomorrow night. Hopefully it stays just offshore. Eastern Suffolk I think changes over for a decent part of it, enough to cut back. I think just north of where the rain snow line ends up really dumps too, just like last night. There’ll also be a good dump before the warm mid level air comes close.
  23. jm1220
    Not to go back on my preaching about using soundings not snow maps, it looks still like it’s on the warm side of guidance. Definitely warmer than the RGEM if it’s spreading the heaviest snow north of the Tappan Zee. Doesn’t change my thinking at all, but I was thinking we’d see a correction back NW after the big SE shift last night. Models today generally went back more amped.
  24. jm1220
    Well, I hope you’re right. The amped trend tonight is leaving the coast down here sweating a little.
  25. jm1220
    GFS gets the mid level warmth about to the barrier islands for a time. This could be another one where I'm glad to be in Huntington, although I'm still pretty sure all do well away from the twin forks.
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