jm1220

And models are typically underdone this time of year when we have torchy patterns. In reality many places not cooled down by the sea breeze would make it to 70.

I’ve moved on to just wanting spring weather (although with our luck it’ll be an awful backdoor season too). Winter’s been dead to me for a month now when the hope for any change to the AO, NAO, roaring Pacific Jet, MJO, Bueller, anything for the better ended. Nothing of any significance will happen here until that meaningfully changes and now we’re into March and the hill gets steeper every day.

If this was 50mi NW, it wouldn’t be as much of an issue. The issue is that it seems like light-mod precip which wouldn’t provide the dynamics needed to cool the column. Could that happen? Maybe, I’d lean towards not given the atrocious overall pattern.

If the precip is light or moderate it would likely be white rain, which could happen if the low is bombing well out at sea and moving east. If it's closer and heavy bands come through, it would crash down to 32 and be accumulating. But a ways to go before figuring that out.

It boils down to the very progressive nature of the pattern that wants to shove everything East even if there is a phase. The ridge is right on its heels and flattens it/pushes it OTS. That all needs to slow down IMO.

That would just be the perfect kick to the teeth.

Maybe only 168hrs to go for some passing white rain!!

See my quoted posts about the SE ridge, roaring Pacific, +AO and NAO. Until that changes we get rain.

2/25/10 was significant for me but not crippling like just west. I had 10” or so after a ton of rain. I remember it more for wind which foreshadowed the March 80mph wind beast that knocked trees down everywhere.

So glad that eastern Nc and S.C. might leapfrog over NYC in seasonal snow soon. Was worried about that not happening in this so called winter.

What got me into weather was the Blizzard of 1996. I’m sure that and any other severe weather event collapsed before it got to the south shore where I grew up.

The snow that night was amazing because I’m not used to seeing a foot of paste on everything-the paste snow events on the south shore are typically short lived and go to rain like 2/13/14. 2 days later it was almost gone.

I'm fine with just ending this "winter" if this is how it stays. I don't see how anyone can have joy in a pattern that's still stormy but no sustained cold (the 1-2 day dry cold shots like we have coming Friday are meaningless and this is still shaping up to be a very warm Feb).

If North America was too wide, we'd just live in a desert. Not what most would want. Not that the Atlantic's been great either (actually this year it's been atrocious, maybe there should be a study of correlation between average flight times to London and seasonal NYC snow in a winter. I'd bet the longer flight time winters have more NYC snow since that would probably indicate -NAO) but the Pacific is by far the biggest ocean, with most of the world's heat budget. We live in the westerlies, so whatever the Pacific decides to do we're essentially stuck with. The Pacific jet has especially been ridiculous this and last winter and we suffer as a result. Until that quiets down and the Atlantic can also slow down and develop some blocking, we're stuck with a cold/snowy West, upper MIdwest and NNE and lousy everywhere else.

One positive of the ++NAO is these record fast flights to London I guess https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/british-airways-fast-flight-scli-intl-gbr/index.html

Was very easy to call this rain, just follow the pattern and what countless other events have been doing all season. It's rain. Maybe Syracuse and Adirondacks can get a nice event, or the Ohio Valley. Just won't be us until the Pacific jet slows down, SE ridge can get squashed, and/or the NAO cooperates. It just won't happen. I couldn't care less what some 180 or 240hr model shows until those factors change.

Exactly. No blocking, rampaging Pacific Jet and SE ridge, it’s rain.

Pretty much. I won’t be optimistic at all for anything until those underlying conditions change. This likely rides the crazy SE ridge like the rest and cuts inland at the end.

The usual downslope problems might come into play from AOO to IPT and the changeover might come too late for very much. We’ll see.

I’m going back to sleep. Wake me up when there’s some kind of blocking north of us, the Pacific Jet stops rampaging, and the SE ridge doesn’t run rampant. Zzzzz.....

It really is just a perfect storm type outcome for a lousy winter. Warm W PAC, +AO, +NAO, SE ridge, raging PAC Jet, etc. Just like last winter, which did turn around a little in March but remains to be seen this year. Does make you wonder if it’s more than just the usual oscillations driving these repeat type patterns and if it’s not something else we need to study more.

It’s the loony range GFS, but that’s not a great track. Notice the low over central VA, and there’s probably tons of SW flow driving warm air in from that panel. No high north of us to keep cold air in. A low SE of here doesn’t mean cold air by itself even in a good winter.

I’d say get it over with and be done with “winter” if we won’t go into any sustained cold pattern with snow. I’m fine with wall to wall warm then.

If there can be mod-heavy precip somehow yes, I'd think it would be snow. If it's light showery stuff it would be a mix or rain because the cold air doesn't get pulled down. More realistically it's impossible to predict much impact right now since the models show a ragged sloppy trough with several waves coming through which seem to negatively interact. The result is a strung out mess that slides out to sea. The N/S wave diving down is a possibility we can't eliminate yet which could force the trough to amplify enough and start a stronger system near the coast. If the waves can't interact properly it won't ever get organized in time. I give it until tomorrow evening before throwing the towel in completely but there's really been only a few stray runs of some models over the last 3-4 days which showed much. We've seen quick last 2-3 day changes before though.