jm1220

Please move the climate change stuff to the climate change thread. The climate change posts here will be removed.

Climate change is certainly part of it but we’re not doomed to warm winters and little snow from now on because of it. The overall pattern has switched back to a Nina heavy pattern with the SE ridge and western trough favored.

The snow’s gone and it’s been in the 40s with rain all day. Easy come easy go.

That was by far the best snow cover I saw on much of Long Island-2 feet on the ground north of Sunrise Highway with huge piles/drifts. In Long Beach we had some intrusions of maritime air that knocked our snow cover down that didn’t make it far inland.

A coworker offered his place up the next time there’s a big lake effect event or major nor’easter that’s a crappy rainstorm on the coast. I’ll definitely be taking him up on that at some point lol

When I first got here it was practically nothing. There’s 2-3” where it hasn’t blown around. Other areas are nearly bare. Some big shopping mall piles are left from the early Dec storm that was rain for us. Not too far north of here in the Tug Hill there’s much more on the ground, where the snow was more persistent. But even here it’s been a below normal winter so far. I think there’s 35” for the season here when it should be over 50” by now. I’m told it’s very rare to have such little snow cover this time of year.

For work. I’ll be back this weekend.

I met coworkers for dinner last night and it was really treacherous and nasty when I left my hotel. An hour later, there were just a few clouds around and the band was gone. It really was from 8-9am and the evening when conditions were pretty bad. It was 9F this morning which made everything feel very wintry for a change. Of course it’ll all be gone in 24 hours and even here it’ll spike to 60 on Sat.

3.9” here in Syracuse yesterday! This snow is so fluffy and blew around so much that plenty of spots are nearly bare. It blew around like crazy yesterday afternoon. We got stuck under a skinny lake effect band in the evening which gave another inch or two.

About an inch new in Syracuse this morning from squalls. I’m here for work this week-hopefully there’s some excitement today. I expect bare ground in Jan where I’m from but up here that’s depressing.

Blue wave posts solid reasoning and analysis behind his thoughts and ends up correct more often than not. That doesn’t in any way make him a “warminista”. The pattern has been lousy this winter so far just like last winter. Those are facts, not any kind of bias.

March was a good month up here, about 10-12” between three events. At times there was 4-5” on the ground here and almost zilch in Long Beach.

Maybe both. The warm water there will support more convection there, which will amplify the MJO and keep it in a lousy phase for us. As someone else said it’s funny how Australia’s heat wave can hurt our winter here.

Like I’ve been saying I’m not really interested in any threats while the Pacific jet, MJO, NAO etc are this horrendous. Maybe a minor event can sneak in there but the 6-8” snow maps from the Euro are almost definitely wrong. In the meantime it’ll continue to be a NNE and upper Midwest winter. Very Nina-like.

Yup thanks. I saw the first one and removed it but I guess there were more.

If I had to pick a spot to be for this, it would definitely be just south of Roanoke, down I-81 to Bristol and the W NC mountains. You guys should get buried around there. Enjoy!

I would track the 700/850mb lows on the models-where they go determines who mixes and dryslots. If the 850mb low goes over or north of you, expect a significant period of sleet. And mid level warming is often underestimated by models-I would take the warmest mid level forecast and go with that. Surface level warming can be overestimated, so that may set up a nasty area of ZR. Something we get burned with plenty of times up here too. Good luck down there as I may spot a cirrus cloud or two from this later today. Just maybe. Usually these suppressed pieces of crap at least get some cirrus up here.

The stronger than average SE Ridge will eventually burn us near the coast and force tracks inland. We’ve been on a good run without much blocking but it can’t last forever.

Lee Goldberg has 1-3" for NYC and most coastal areas (less than 1" far eastern LI, south Jersey Shore). Mentioned colder conditions on Fri than some models are showing. But honestly, good luck to anyone who has to make a snow forecast right now. Could be 1" in the city if the CCB is crap and we don't cool down, to half a foot or more if it really goes off.

TWC looks to go on the GFS output which as we know is the warmest of any model.

Nina years are always concerning here. Ninas keep the SE Ridge strong as well as the Pacific Jet. We could have an 07-08 winter with tons of SWFE events that nail I-90, or one with tons of Lakes cutters. If we can get a few periods of blocking, it could be another blockbuster like 10-11. Could really go either way. If it's not roaring into a strong Nina, our odds are probably better.

I ended up with about a foot. A ton was wasted on the front end with sleet and rain in Long Beach. We had almost as much liquid as areas east of us.

Believe it or not State College's snow average is in the mid 40s, but since the recent shift to big offshore and late developing coastal storms from NJ on NE, that area's been left high and dry. Clippers usually do okay there, since it's close enough to the Allegheny spine to still get some decent snow before downsloping really shafts the Susquehanna Valley. But transferring Miller B-type systems often do little there since the moisture and lift shifts to the coast, it's often too warm for systems that hit the I-90 corridor hard, lake cutters often just bring a lot of sleet or ZR before rain, and lake effect is usually just flurries other than being very lucky with a long running band (happened a couple of times when I was there with a few inches of surprise snow). In the 1990s, coast hugging miller A's were more common, which are what does bury central PA, but those never happen anymore. March 1993's monster was over 2 feet there, as was a similar storm in March 1994. It was very frustrating being there as a snow weenie, for sure. And I remember having numerous close calls and good setups that ended up producing little. One of these years the pattern will shift back to producing again back there, but it's undeniable that there's been a shift away from the types of snowstorms that can hit central PA really hard.

Nice towers up this evening east of Austin-towards Bastrop. Radar indicates a small patch of 2" of rain there.

It was pretty much a bust for I-35, as I suspected it would be last night when the boundary was pushed way SE of where models had it by the MCV that rolled through yesterday afternoon. Some places SE of San Antonio did get 6"+ of rain, mainly in low populated areas.