jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Yup. One of these days maybe soon a storm will take an Isaias track but hit NC instead as a cat 3. If that happened it would’ve been devastating even up to our area.
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Could mean another active east coast hurricane season if we have the strong WAR and trough that tries to fit between a huge West ridge and the WAR. Storms would be brought north up the coast I’d think. Maybe substantial number of landfalls too unfortunately-strong WAR might mean fewer recurves before strikes.
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Boom bust has been the cycle for sure. 17-18 had the huge March but lousy Feb, and had the big 1/4 storm. 15-16 snow came from late Jan into early Feb. 10-11 had the crushing month long period from Christmas to 2/1. This year for me 10” before the 1/31-2/1 storm and 30” within under 3 weeks after that, nada since.
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Might have contributed. It was a pretty solid bust by the models. Central Park had 0.63”, ISP 0.59” when close to 2” was widely shown. If this was snow we’d all be quite disappointed.
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The rain is looking like generally a bust also. Farmingdale has 0.43" so far when most models had close to 2". Maybe if we're lucky this rain from the Delmarva clips us and we end up at 0.75".
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Color me stunned.
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8" bullseye over my house. From that panel to God's eyes.
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LMAO-18z NAM actually develops a snow band for central NJ through LI overnight. The 10-1 maps have 5-8" from roughly Trenton through LI.
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3/16/07 May have been one of those setups, if I recall right there was a surface cold front east of here but mid level warm air still in place with the tons of sleet that storm had.
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I have 40” here (maybe a little more) so I definitely can’t say that’s a disappointment. 30” of it came in 3 weeks but seems like we get these boom and bust periods more often now.
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Less dynamics in general and a faster move out of the precip. Cold air comes in too late or precip is too light to take advantage. These Anafront setups don’t work out for the most part and especially this late in March.
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Yep, soaker incoming. Most of us should see close to 2” rain.
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With a last gasp effort, winter 20-21 refuses to give up the ghost
jm1220 replied to moneypitmike's topic in New England
Down here? Sure. Always has been. We can use the rain though, that's good news at least. -
Even if the snow maps did show accums down here I’d be skeptical. It’s rare that we start with upper 40s and heavy rain but end up with decent snow accums in this area. This is an upstate NY/New England setup.
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Highly unlikely. Much more likely is Boston getting their 5-6” event that overtakes NYC for good this season. I don’t see it being more than a burst of snow at the end that barely or doesn’t accumulate around the city. Looks like a standard washout that becomes a cold washout with some slush at the end. North of town especially north of 84 could get a few inches.
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Light snow/snow grains a few minutes ago.
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The old GFS is the only model I can see bringing anything decent to near NYC/LI. Para GFS is largely a washout south of I-84 like the NAM and Euro. We could use the rain so that's a win I guess. There probably will be a changeover to snow/slush as it ends but it would be brief near the coast. I-90 corridor is heavily favored here.
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To me it looks like a mainly I-90 event with maybe some snow at the end down to NYC. Northern posters might get a few inches. I’m not too interested unless we get significant changes.
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The 2/25/10 storm a few weeks before that one was also very impressive wind-wise, also decent for snow. I think there was 10” in Long Beach but obviously much more just west where it was all snow.
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That March 2010 storm was wicked on the south shore of LI. In Long Beach, the craziest wind event I saw up to that point with hurricane force gusts and trees coming down everywhere with significant property damage-torn shingles and anything loose. I remember a constant wail from fire/police vehicles in the background along with the roaring winds. From that, to Irene 2011 and Sandy 2012 the vast majority of sturdy large trees in Long Beach were lost so now around town you see a lot of smaller or newly planted trees.
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Sea breeze made it to the barrier beaches. Wunderground temps there seem to be up to 10 degrees cooler than just inland.
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Can’t complain with a widespread 12-18” event for the NYC area and 24-30” in N NJ along with several other significant events. I’d have to give this winter a solid B/B+. The bad January keeps it from being an A, and generally this was an above average snow winter but not massively so (out in the Allentown area different story). I have about 40” on the nose which is probably 8” above average.
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Tough forecast coming for Denver. Models like the NAM really don’t have much there and the snow goes well north into WY, but the GFS has a lot more. Could be the difference between something really significant like 18+ or barely a warning event on the Nam there.
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Westerly winds FTW.
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Still a snow patch that could in my backyard. Maybe it can make it through today for the cold front. Just maybe...
