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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    We have the well placed WAA that brings the heavy snow in on Thu like a wall that makes the 6” totals possible near the coast. If the heavy snow is more scattered or the main WAA is aimed NW of the city, amounts will be less. As usual I think it’s 90-95% chance that at least the city will go to sleet at some point and probably rain. But by then a lot may have fallen already.
  2. jm1220
    Hopefully those models are correct that there could be heavy banding and the snow comes in solidly. As others pointed out the problem in Dec was there was a few hours of good snow then the snow shredded up and warm air took over. I agree that most will change over to no -snow eventually-rain near the coast and sleet inland. Any of these setups where we’re sweating the mid level low tracks end in changeovers.
  3. jm1220
    Snowpack is holding up decently well here but still taking a big hit with temps near 50 and rain. Hopefully we can salvage a fair amount before the event on Thu.
  4. jm1220
    6.4” of snow in Austin, third most on record and most in one event since 1949. Low tonight of 3 and more freezing rain on the way. Rolling power outages all over the city. Crazy situation
  5. jm1220
    It’s always a question of how the snow comes in-like a wall or shredded. If shredded the warm air advances more quickly and flips it over to sleet. That was our problem in the December storm.
  6. jm1220
    Would be nice but I doubt it. We’re back into a period where the SE ridge is dominating and the blocking or what’s left doesn’t compensate. Nina climo in Feb can only be held off for so long. Should hopefully be a nice 3-6” thump before rain or sleet though. The high can at least make that happen.
  7. jm1220
    Started as sleet in Long Beach as well with a few flakes. Now just some very light freezing drizzle which will make a glazed mess.
  8. jm1220
    Light sleet and a few flakes in Long Beach.
  9. jm1220
    It's the SE ridge rearing its head. The core of the cold is shooting down the Plains/Midwest and we get a relatively glancing blow. Austin getting down to 6 would equivalently mean us getting down well below zero? That says something by itself-NYC may make it to 15 but much of TX in a much more subtropical climate where palm trees can naturally grow may get 5-10 degrees colder.
  10. jm1220
    Thanks Walt! We might be heading back to a pattern where the SE ridge is asserting itself again and blocking might relax, meaning we go back to warmer storm tracks. Hopefully we can make one more run with a cold system but down here on the coast it’s always tougher as it is. And it might be a big story as you say with the sleet/ice this weekend being absorbed into an already thick snowpack.
  11. jm1220
    Seems like this will be a surface cold based/icy setup so the models that can’t resolve that properly (GFS) will suffer.
  12. jm1220
    Wow, even Corpus Christi right on the Gulf is under a winter storm watch for ice and expected low on Mon night of 18.
  13. jm1220
    I remember flying in from TX during the Feb 2016 cold snap and absolutely freezing when I got off the plane. It was in the mid 70s when I left and probably single digits at JFK. Coming back up from the south, the cold is hard to get back adjusted to.
  14. jm1220
    “Severe” weather I experienced on LI is nothing like actual severe weather in Austin that’s for sure. But yes this is essentially a BECS upcoming for snow and cold in TX.
  15. jm1220
    The Target near the New York Ave/Jericho Tpke intersection is the go to sledding area in my immediate backyard. Significant difference in snowpack between the Smithtown and Islip ends of Rt 111 today as you would expect.
  16. jm1220
    Thanks! The airport is in a more exurban area outside of downtown so it typically gets a couple degrees colder than the city, however the CAA might be strong enough for it not to matter. Camp Mabry is the more representative temp for downtown.
  17. jm1220
    The blocking and big time -AO saved us so far. When that relaxes we’ll torch for sure on the SE ridge.
  18. jm1220
    Nope. The light glaze I mentioned shut the city down. My office told everyone to work from home and it was a disaster.
  19. jm1220
    Low of 6 now expected in Austin on Mon night along with 2-4” snow. I’ll have to look to see when temps have been that cold there. It must be several decades at least. And that amount of snow is also incredibly unusual. When I lived there over 2 winters 2015 and 2016 we had a light glaze one morning and that was it. A few mornings below freezing.
  20. jm1220
    I don’t really remember 93-94, I was 7 years old then. I remember bits and pieces. The first real memory I have was the 95-96 winter specifically Jan 96 which really got me into weather.
  21. jm1220
    The warm air aloft is caused by the strengthening SE ridge and an attempt to have a primary low feature that drives warm mid level air in. This is all cutting into a strong surface high in Canada that is keeping cold low level air in place. Hopefully the ice storm depictions don’t happen. No one wants a 0.5” or more freezing rain event that would cause tens of thousands of power outages.
  22. jm1220
    Yep, insane cold and snow upcoming for Central TX, and today even up to 1/4" ice. Austin may have a high below 20 on Monday with 2-4" also possible!! That hasn't happened there in decades. It's essentially a 93-94 level cold airmass along with 24-30" blizzard equivalent for our area if not even worse. Icy bridges, overpasses still possible as freezing rain winds down | KXAN Austin
  23. jm1220
    Austin’s low might get down to 10 on Monday night and they’re under a warning for sleet/ice. I experienced sleet and a glaze once when I lived there in 2015 but the lowest temp got down to 29-30 very briefly. That kind of cold is absurd for that area. Palm trees naturally grow there.
  24. jm1220
    Yes sleet can definitely help. It’s annoying the day of but it adds a lot of water and freezes solid into the snowpack which saves it as the sun is getting higher in the sky now and melts some of the snow even with below freezing temps.
  25. jm1220
    Just measured about 1.5” in S Huntington.
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