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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Yeah it seemed to me like it stalled out and started occluding so soon and far south that it wrapped warm/dry air around from the east which screws it for eastern areas.
  2. jm1220
    GFS v16 still looks amazing for places south of I-84. Might have ticked south a little from 6z?
  3. jm1220
    The competing mesolows chasing convection are frequently wrong and are a function of the meso models overdoing the convection. I guess technically they can work out but I've yet to see it actually happen.
  4. jm1220
    Odd and to me seems like an outlier. It ends up fine especially near the city but it might be in clueless mode again. This model can't get retired soon enough.
  5. jm1220
    Wow....
  6. jm1220
    NAM supports a crazy snow band that would drop much of our snow here over a 6-8 hour period or so on Mon afternoon. This is for 18z Mon Inland gets there in the end but it's lighter snow over a longer duration.
  7. jm1220
    The GFS v16 went even more berserk at 6z for everyone except the far northern areas and even they would have a nice event in the end. Has over 2" liquid as snow for NYC and Long Island, 1" up to about I-84.
  8. jm1220
    Hopefully not tucked like this at least. The elongated nature of this can help it really dump somewhere but it also brings in warm air just as much on the easterly flow. Just have to hope those mid level low tracks stay SE of us.
  9. jm1220
    It may not be so bad up there. It’ll be a slower event than here but it may pile up in the end to not too dissimilar amounts.
  10. jm1220
    Maybe this storm can really do it-the 12” totals at Central Park and State College. Looks like this is an I-80 bullseye at this point. And in a moderate Nina no less.
  11. jm1220
    The stretch of 2000-01 to 2017-18 will likely be an all time great stretch of any of our lives despite the occasional 2001-02, 2011-12 bummers. When has the last average been 30" at Central Park for a decade? Uncle W?
  12. jm1220
    Before Jan 1996 I have a spotty memory (was born in 1987). I remember the late 12/95 storm mixing but being a good event, Mar 1993 having icebergs as there was flooding everywhere in Long Beach, 1993-94 being cold/snowy but not many specifics. The 1/96 blizzard was my first real snap into place memory of a storm. And then I was hooked lol. Don't remember that mixing either.
  13. jm1220
    Best case right there.
  14. jm1220
    Or check the Central PA thread. Essentially best case scenario. Probs of 3", 6" are also there.
  15. jm1220
    I totally agree, Nemo from Feb 2013 could have been 24" in Long Beach but we wasted 3 hours to sleet when northern Nassau/Suffolk was pounding so it definitely happens, but there's no "the big ones mix" rule anywhere. 1/3/18 was all snow down to Ocean City MD. It's about the low tracks and cold air availability.
  16. jm1220
    Maybe the upper air low meanders enough that warm air is eventually brought in aloft and mixes us when the 850mb jet max passes us and there's kind of a dryslot. That's what the NAM/Euro tonight kinda indicated and there's precedent for that, i.e. 2/13/14. Anyway we'll see what tomorrow brings. I wouldn't mind the crazy 8 hour thump or so to it drying out and it being mild until what's left of the CCB comes in. 12/17 had that but the dryslot was aggressive and broke the heavy snow up which allowed the warm air to take over here. Always a risk. 8" here from that, could've been 12"+ if it cooperated a little better. Seeing the 16"+ from you guys on I-99 was worth it though.
  17. jm1220
    Mar 21, 2018, Jan 3 2018, etc etc from before then. The idea that "the big ones always mix on the coast" is wrong. I wasn't here for these but I assume 1/25/15 and 1/27/16 didn't mix on the coast? PDII had maybe a few sleet pellets in Long Beach but was otherwise all snow. 12/30/00 was all snow for me.
  18. jm1220
    Yup, that will be insane. If this warm intrusion/dryslot idea stays hopefully that rocks us first.
  19. jm1220
    Crazy 850mb easterly jet into our region by 21z Monday. Seems like it strengthened from last run. This would be a hellacious 6-8 hour or so period of snow I-80 in NJ to LI.
  20. jm1220
    That could maybe do it for both our regions, that 850mb jet is crazy. It'll be a faster thump where I am on that jet while the cold air lasts but the overall evolution and CCB development and good ratios benefit you guys. Maybe it can stay that way. We all get our 12"+ but you get it over a day while I get it in 8 hours and go to a dryslot.
  21. jm1220
    Tomorrow will really tell the tale IMO. No one out of the game.
  22. jm1220
    Hate to say it but I doubt it turns out like this. There are certain situations where much of PA and the NYC area get crushed like in 2003 and 2016 (Nino years), or the fluke 03-04 winter. This is a moderate Nina and the trending probably isn't done. That's a benefit for you guys, hopefully for me it isn't enjoy for a couple hours before rain or the dryslot. Even if so you guys deserve it though, hopefully this can be the diamond in the rough somehow.
  23. jm1220
    I was never really worried about suppression in this pattern. Some places like Liberty may be on the edge still but in a mod-strong Nina with something like this coming in, this was taking every inch north it could.
  24. jm1220
    Tonight has to be the last of the NW jumps for NYC and the coast. The front end thump can work out fine but now we're relying on that to a dryslot when it gets marginally warm. It's never a great feeling. 12/17 was supposed to work out that way until it went to shredded garbage. The mid level lows are taking better tracks this time so far so hope that holds. But NW posters, totally in the game.
  25. jm1220
    Somehow keep it this way please.
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