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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Dual pol has a chopped up appearance now in central NJ-probably lots of sleet and snow back and forth.
  2. jm1220
    Just like that-big aggregates. Coming down heavy.
  3. jm1220
    Dual pol has the sleet dampening out for now as it tries to head east from NYC (I know I just jinxed it and it will surge east-you can thank me lol). Poster ARyan from Long Beach had snow sleet mix not long ago.
  4. jm1220
    Yep, just about heavy here now. Like a snow globe. Even the warmer models never really cleared the warm mid level air through here so hopefully it can just be brief mixes with sleet.
  5. jm1220
    Moderate snow here and I have 2” or so. Hopefully the sleet can be held back or it’ll be tough for anyone outside the death band this morning to make it to 6”.
  6. jm1220
    Yeah-yuck. Looks like sleet advancing pretty fast in NJ.
  7. jm1220
    Some of those red/oranges in SE PA are definitely sleet. Hopefully it washes out a little as it gains latitude.
  8. jm1220
    OKX mixing line is sinking back south of LI for now. Looks like as it’s been this winter it’s when the rates lighten up that warm air can advance.
  9. jm1220
    Yes absolutely. Huge flakes.
  10. jm1220
    That said the soundings above 850mb to 750mb are very marginal starting at noon or so on the NAM for around the city. Lighter rates could definitely mean some mixing then.
  11. jm1220
    Strange how Dual-pol has it largely being pinned south and west of Philly. Like you said I guess it depends on rates?
  12. jm1220
    The sleet is being held SW of Philly for now. It will head NE but I'm pretty confident that the vast majority of this subforum won't have snow amounts knocked down much if at all by sleet (outside maybe the Monmouth County people who already have a lot). Now until 2-3pm is when we get 90% of what falls I think. Borderline moderate here now.
  13. jm1220
    Looking at that banding over NJ and heading into NYC-wow. Many along I-80 might reach warning criteria after all.
  14. jm1220
    Looks amazing for us. There's a huge slug of heavy snow in E PA and NJ headed right at us.
  15. jm1220
    The State College and Mt Holly radars suggest a good slug of heavy snow should make it far enough north to get most of us at least S of I-84.
  16. jm1220
    Snow is trying to make a push north in NJ/PA. That should hopefully be enough to get it into the Hudson Valley and CT. If you go to the Central PA/State College radar and track the heavy snow near Harrisburg, it's headed ENE and should swipe many of us.
  17. jm1220
    V16 was a lot different from that but still seemed to get some good snow up north.
  18. jm1220
    Coming down heavier now, dusting/coating new snow. South Shore about to get clobbered with a yellow band incoming!
  19. jm1220
    The snow is headed ENE now more than northerly which is what a few of the models predicted. I think it comes north but it may weaken as it does so.
  20. jm1220
    Flurries here in S Huntington.
  21. jm1220
    Hence why I was concerned about the strung out mess possibility ruining the whole system. Lousy WAA shunted east event and coastal system getting going too late. Honestly I have no clue what to expect tomorrow or Fri. Good luck to the meteorologists paid to make these calls. “Straightforward” I guess not with these 0z models so far.
  22. jm1220
    0z HRRR was quite nice. Good snow event for just about everyone. Unfortunately it's usually a little slow bringing mid level warm air in.
  23. jm1220
    Just got an urgent boil water notice phone call and two texts from Austin Water. They still had my contact info somehow.
  24. jm1220
    He's a weenie who predicted widespread 15-20" totals 2 days ago. That ain't happening.
  25. jm1220
    And the weird thing is the 3k NAM seems well south of other models with how far north the snow gets. At NYC it has 0.3" liquid by 0z and 1" at Atlantic City. I think it warms up at the mid levels just based on how little heavy precip gets this far north. And it went south from 18z. Regular NAM also went south with how far the good precip makes it-seems like maybe to the LIE and I-78 in NJ? Seems like it jumped on this idea of snow regenerating on Friday adding maybe 1-3" more.
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