jm1220

Not like there isn't plenty of moist, disgusting air to be tapped here in Austin. Looks like CAPE should be sufficient for storms here, but the line's crawling south. I guess we'll see what happens. There's been zero rain where I am in about two weeks, and the ground's already looking parched with the daily 100 degree heat we've been having. Hopefully this doesn't turn into another severe flash drought like last summer which resulted in wildfires by early fall.

Good line of storms look to be headed south from Lampasas-Waco. Hopefully they make it here, can't believe I'm saying it but we could use the rain!!

Too bad you didn't move in the spring-San Antonio had some massive hail events this year. Get used to generally boring but very hot weather through September. We're just about to wrap up month 1 of constant 90+ highs in Austin. Now it's on to 95-100 every day, with humidity making for heat indices of 105+ every day. At this rate, in a few weeks we'll be at the 100+ daily highs phase. So far this summer looks like it will be hotter than last summer.

Heaviest rain since mid-June at my place now. Good to finally see some water coming into the ground again. The landscape here is brown and yellow as can be after the last two and a half months of almost total dryness. Barton Creek's station jumped from almost nothing to 0.53" in 20 minutes. After the massive flooding in May/June on almost all the area creeks, they're about dry as a bone now. Barely a trickle.

First 100 today here in Austin. It still feels like a furnace outside, at 5pm it was brutal. In Jan and Feb, average highs go from the low 60s to mid 70s, but it can get below freezing on a decent number of nights, and we can also have highs into the 80s under the right pattern. On average, there's maybe one or two winter weather events of some type where there's some sleet or freezing rain. Dallas isn't too far away and they have one or two more significant winter events per year.

Unless it's completely cloudy or wet, hitting 90 is pretty much a given. We also average 12-13 days a year above 100, and the ground has dried out, so we should start that up soon.

So far about 45 90F and over days in Austin. On average there's about 110 per year. Still hasn't hit 100-today might be the day, currently 99 and we've had some late highs recently.

GFS/NAM are focused on a big time soaking for south central TX-one big round late Sat into Sun, then another Monday night. We have a lot more capacity for excess rain than N TX/OK, but 6"+ rain over this period would still cause some major problems and flash floods on the creeks that flow through much of Austin. There's also a severe risk with the late Saturday/Sun event due to the trough digging pretty far south and the potential for supercells/tornadoes if there can be any clearing during the day tomorrow.

The heavy snow is struggling to get to the Hudson River. If anything they didn't cut back enough. Luckily NYC saw 5" from the initial bands this morning/afternoon, so 12-15" is still doable. A big snow event for sure, but nothing historic or crippling like was thrown around yesterday. Upton isn't going to come out good either, throwing out 24"+ totals was a very ballsy move by them and it's going to bite them when NYC might come in with half of those predictions. And Philly might come in with a minor nuisance event when this morning 12" was predicted. Big time bust from NYC west and south.

No they're not. The classic track for a NYC snow event is just west of the B/M and 75 miles SE of Montauk. The problem is what it usually is for redeveloper Miller B's there-a too slow evolution aloft and consolidation of the low.

The RGEM was too far east even initially-good snow really was never supposed to make it past Islip and it's now entering NYC and still going. To me the storm still looks very potent aloft and should at least slow significantly for a while. I'm becoming more cautiously optimistic that NYC shares in some of the high totals, as does W CT/MA. Maybe even NE NJ but the band's progress is really slowing now.

Yeh, people seem to forget that the AO/NAO aren't in a good spot for a stalled out storm for days and the pattern is progressive overall.

You're a lot better at picking up on these little nuances than I am, which is why I definitely keep tuned to your posts, and you called the Euro as being overdone right away and it looks very much like you'll be right. I still regard the Euro quite highly but it definitely punked lots of people west of NYC. I'm done with models at this point-right now it's all about the obs and radar, which IMO look good at least to NYC and the NJ shore. Hopefully the band coming out of Suffolk County can sit over those guys and pivot for a while. I feel bad for those who get stuck west of that-amounts might be 1/3 of what occurs in that western band. That's always a doozy.

These storms are always a nailbiter for NYC-Boxing Day was really the exception and wasn't even a classic Miller B like this one. 2/8/13 closed off and bombed just a hair too late and blew up over Long Island. 12/30/00 nailed everyone but rained on Long Island. This one I still have a good feeling about-the bands still have good momentum west and are already coming into E NJ. Nassau and Suffolk Counties are still in a very good spot. Obviously you guys are mostly laughing about all this but for Upton and Mt. Holly it's a hair-puller since these 40 mile differences impact perhaps millions of people. Philly I think is in big trouble for anything more than 4-6" at this point-Mt. Holly had them at 10-14" on the maps. This is how Miller B's that blow up from clippers always behave, notwithstanding exceptions like 12/30/00 and Feb 1978, but some probably bit too hard from NYC to PHL.

I'd laugh so much if this is the one storm to give southern Nassau 2 feet but Central Park half that.

NYC already has up to 6" from earlier today, so another 12" would bring some to 18" by itself, and that's doable with 12-1 ratios and 1" liquid. Obviously anywhere east of there is still in for a crushing regardless.

It was wildly inconsistent from last run and has many in the NYC area jumping off bridges. Jeez... It's times like this I'm almost glad I'm so far away from it all now (reverse psychology )

I always thought last night was unrealistically small on snow for NYC with the upper air features developing where they were. A closed off 500mb low over ACY is just about the best calling card there is for a big time NYC snow event. Models were favoring the heavy convection too much and jumping the center east.

That's why it's hard for me to believe models like the GFS and NAM when they close off at 500mb over NJ/DE, and NYC gets just light-mod snow. They underestimate the western limits of the snow/precip shield regularly. It might not be as extreme in NYC as the Euro shows, but I'd weight that a lot more than those models.

From hr 18 to hr 24 the low goes almost due east despite the trough negatively tilting? I find that somewhat farfetched. I still think the model is overdeveloping the low near deep convection. The GFS has also been too far east consistently this winter.

Well, for NYC's sake here's to hoping you're wrong.

Very August 2011 like. Flooding out there must be a disaster, it sure was here on that day. We had over 10 inches of rain in maybe 5 hours.

That was pretty much the path I took... I was in the Meteo major at Penn State for 2 years, then switched to Energy, Business and Finance, which is also a very broad area of study where you can develop numerous different specialties. Ultimately I want to pursue an M.B.A., preferably in the energy/renewables sectors. Many meteo students at Penn State took the E.B.F. minor (which is called Weather Risk Management or Global Business Strategies) and it helped them greatly in attaining positions at energy and commodities companies which value that kind of background.

Minor in another field such as econ or finance. That will give you a diverse background and make you more marketable to various employers, particularly energy companies.