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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Euro on board for the front end crazy thump for NYC to get its 12" snow and then NW rots in the CCB for its snow. Clear trend tonight.
  2. jm1220
    Safe to say the UK isn't happening.
  3. jm1220
    Yes!! The best wouldn't get back to I-99 on this run but high ratios would help it end up better than precip/snow maps would say off the bat.
  4. jm1220
    I'll always be part of your suffering. My State College years 2004-09 were brutal. I rooted for you guys on 12/17 when I knew it would be a Central PA event, best in a decade!! (ended up with the best a little north of expected but IPT still had 24")
  5. jm1220
    Hopefully this one can be a biggie for all of us!! I'm pretty optimistic and it seems the same mechanics to get this to work can make it happen for you guys as well as around NYC. Fingers crossed. Confluence in time to get the coastal system to cooperate and a decent front end for PA.
  6. jm1220
    Soon. Snow starts just over 48 hours out.
  7. jm1220
    Still has 8" or so here which I gladly take. There's been about 1" here since 12/17, 9" on the season in my backyard. Not sure what it's seeing that others aren't. Euro will tell the tale as usual I guess.
  8. jm1220
    Overnight Sun into Mon. The real heavy snow could be Mon afternoon-evening. Long duration to get it really started.
  9. jm1220
    UK is fine for the city and S/E but an outlier. Wouldn't be worried about it.
  10. jm1220
    The Dec front end batch was good for a few hours but then went shredded which allowed the warm air to take over when the precip finally did restart, we wasted up to 0.5" as rain. Hopefully this can be a colder version of that storm, if not for that it would have been easily 12"+ in my backyard.
  11. jm1220
    If there's a story so far tonight I'd say it's for a crazy fronto band to come through and dump very heavy rates especially from eastern NJ on east, when earlier it seemed like it would be more modest but longer lasting on the easterly mid level jet. NW would pile up a bit less snow but have a CCB feature with good ratios sit overhead while there's a relative dryslot over the immediate metro area.
  12. jm1220
    There's a piece of energy that dives down the trough and enhances the coastal low so much that it lurches it north enough to have SE Mass be mostly rain on that run I'd say. GGEM has the low near Marthas Vineyard. The prolonged easterly mid level flow doesn't help and brings warm air in to start. The GFS v16 keeps that area plenty cold and buries them just like us. So like I said, tomorrow will be interesting.
  13. jm1220
    Amish Annihilation.
  14. jm1220
    Final for that run (and it wasn't, there was minor additional even after this panel).
  15. jm1220
    Story's not close to being written on this yet. I wouldn't count anyone in this subforum at least as really being out. Might be shaping up as down here a crazy 10-12 hour burst of our snow and well NW a lighter 18 hour snow with the CCB feature.
  16. jm1220
    The v16 did a lot better on the 12/17 event overall than the retiring GFS, but the retiring GFS had us down here quite a bit colder and busted. Reversed this time with these-old GFS has the crappy thermals and the v16 annihilates us and most of you guys too. .
  17. jm1220
    Snowgoose FTW? (sorry I had to lol)
  18. jm1220
    Final
  19. jm1220
    Oh yes, wow and it's still snowing here. I really hope this model has a clue, it did better for the 12/17 event than regular GFS.
  20. jm1220
    This isn't really like Jan 2016. That was more miller A and El Nino fueled-you could track the moisture from it right to the tropical Pacific. This is more miller B-coastal transfer from a primary. It won't make it a lousy event but spawned differently.
  21. jm1220
    I think in the end you'll be fine (you're in Dutchess County N of I-84? If that far maybe/maybe not). Maybe not the highest amounts but good ratios will help and prolonged duration of lighter snow it looks like. These NW bumps seem to happen every time. I at least don't think you get shut out.
  22. jm1220
    Maybe the rain will taste like strawberries like on the commercial.
  23. jm1220
    GFS looks quite nice to me for most, best is focused on the coastal area but it trended NW again. Has a crazy Monday afternoon/evening snow burst that comes through on the easterly 850mb jet for coastal areas. It peters out north of the city. We'll see how far north that crusher snow batch can make it on that easterly jet along with max ratios.
  24. jm1220
    Also note in purple the freezing layers that could show what precip is left after 0z Tue could be sleet or sleet/rain mix (on this NAM run). Notice the small mid level warm layer and surface above freezing. Thankfully the crazy lift and heavy precip comes in before any warm layers arrive and the lift (and real precip) is gone by then.
  25. jm1220
    For White Plains-that's perfect for high ratio snow. So for NYC that's as far north as you'd want this to go on this NAM run.
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