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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Hopefully this is as amped as it gets and others don't make a big leap NW. 3k NAM was even more amped and brings a dryslot in. This winter you can never rule it out.
  2. jm1220
    NAM is still good for the coast but you definitely don't want it amped anymore without it becoming an inland focused event and a chunk of it being rain or a dryslot from the city east. The mid level lows all trended about 50 miles NW from last run.
  3. jm1220
    Highs well above expectations again and the sun is out. Pretty mild out now with temps in the upper 40s. Lots of melting this afternoon.
  4. jm1220
    I think we’re setting the goal posts. Euro might be the east goal post and RGEM west? It probably ends up closer to the west goal post but I’d think this is fast moving enough and sampled well enough by now for no more major changes.
  5. jm1220
    Euro decently better but still a little east of the other guidance so not as much west of NYC especially.
  6. jm1220
    For OKX and HPN
  7. jm1220
    If this is right, short lived but very heavy rates and lift squarely in the -12 to -18C part pf the column. For LGA:
  8. jm1220
    That would be insane on the level of the last storm in terms of rates, probably 2-3”/hr. Of course moving much faster but a very fun 6-8 hours.
  9. jm1220
    Most TV Mets are just lousy. They were way underdone east of the city on the last storm until the morning of and even then we were on the top end of the ranges if not higher. Upton was generally overdone but was better. There are some exceptions like Craig Allen but not many. I’m sure by 5pm those will be upped and we might be under a watch anyway.
  10. jm1220
    In this case the 700 low is taking a great track for coastal areas. I haven’t looked at maps/soundings for where the max lift is but if it’s in the -12 to -18c layer that’s the best for high ratios.
  11. jm1220
    Thanks-I’ve seen it mentioned before but didn’t know much about it.
  12. jm1220
    What’s the Cobb method based on? I don’t see anyone getting 16” from a fast mover like this. Maybe someone gets 10-12” in one of the heavy bands. It would be a general 6-10” type deal otherwise.
  13. jm1220
    GGEM came in a good bit NW also like the RGEM.
  14. jm1220
    Hopefully for comparison we get the v16 GFS today.
  15. jm1220
    I'm fairly confident here we have a few inches to rebuild/freshen the snow pack but hopefully it can be more. You need something quite amped in this setup to get it well NW of the city but the NAM would get it done.
  16. jm1220
    Geez. Hopefully it had a clue here and we see the other models go the same way.
  17. jm1220
    Southerly flow off the ocean raising temps quite a bit here. Temp 40 now.
  18. jm1220
    Don’t think it got quite that warm here but some more snow on Sun would be nice. We’re losing more today too.
  19. jm1220
    Fine by me. I’d rather be on the northern edge of these than sweating the rain snow line. A few inches or so to build/refresh the pack works.
  20. jm1220
    They had a large chunk of the storm as rain here but 95% of it was snow.
  21. jm1220
    They were pretty significantly too amped with the past storm at around this range.
  22. jm1220
    18z and 6z runs also incorporate updated data. It’s a myth that somehow they just run off previous 12z or 0z data.
  23. jm1220
    Looking pretty strongly like this will be a hit in some way for most of us. Coast is favored this time but models like the Nam spread the fun well inland too.
  24. jm1220
    Yes it's a southern stream wave, but embedded in a fast pattern and not slowing down/amplifying too much. NAM would be the best outcome obviously but at this range it can be too amped. Hopefully others trend NW again at 18z/0z.
  25. jm1220
    Still time for it to come NW enough for most of us to get a few inches and possibly more near the coast. The nature of this being an Arctic wave means it won’t be a long lasting event- it won’t amplify like crazy and slow down. This wouldn’t be the kind of storm for huge amounts, maybe 6-8” type stuff at most.
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