jm1220

The RGEM was too far east even initially-good snow really was never supposed to make it past Islip and it's now entering NYC and still going. To me the storm still looks very potent aloft and should at least slow significantly for a while. I'm becoming more cautiously optimistic that NYC shares in some of the high totals, as does W CT/MA. Maybe even NE NJ but the band's progress is really slowing now.

Yeh, people seem to forget that the AO/NAO aren't in a good spot for a stalled out storm for days and the pattern is progressive overall.

You're a lot better at picking up on these little nuances than I am, which is why I definitely keep tuned to your posts, and you called the Euro as being overdone right away and it looks very much like you'll be right. I still regard the Euro quite highly but it definitely punked lots of people west of NYC. I'm done with models at this point-right now it's all about the obs and radar, which IMO look good at least to NYC and the NJ shore. Hopefully the band coming out of Suffolk County can sit over those guys and pivot for a while. I feel bad for those who get stuck west of that-amounts might be 1/3 of what occurs in that western band. That's always a doozy.

These storms are always a nailbiter for NYC-Boxing Day was really the exception and wasn't even a classic Miller B like this one. 2/8/13 closed off and bombed just a hair too late and blew up over Long Island. 12/30/00 nailed everyone but rained on Long Island. This one I still have a good feeling about-the bands still have good momentum west and are already coming into E NJ. Nassau and Suffolk Counties are still in a very good spot. Obviously you guys are mostly laughing about all this but for Upton and Mt. Holly it's a hair-puller since these 40 mile differences impact perhaps millions of people. Philly I think is in big trouble for anything more than 4-6" at this point-Mt. Holly had them at 10-14" on the maps. This is how Miller B's that blow up from clippers always behave, notwithstanding exceptions like 12/30/00 and Feb 1978, but some probably bit too hard from NYC to PHL.

I'd laugh so much if this is the one storm to give southern Nassau 2 feet but Central Park half that.

NYC already has up to 6" from earlier today, so another 12" would bring some to 18" by itself, and that's doable with 12-1 ratios and 1" liquid. Obviously anywhere east of there is still in for a crushing regardless.

It was wildly inconsistent from last run and has many in the NYC area jumping off bridges. Jeez... It's times like this I'm almost glad I'm so far away from it all now (reverse psychology )

I always thought last night was unrealistically small on snow for NYC with the upper air features developing where they were. A closed off 500mb low over ACY is just about the best calling card there is for a big time NYC snow event. Models were favoring the heavy convection too much and jumping the center east.

That's why it's hard for me to believe models like the GFS and NAM when they close off at 500mb over NJ/DE, and NYC gets just light-mod snow. They underestimate the western limits of the snow/precip shield regularly. It might not be as extreme in NYC as the Euro shows, but I'd weight that a lot more than those models.

From hr 18 to hr 24 the low goes almost due east despite the trough negatively tilting? I find that somewhat farfetched. I still think the model is overdeveloping the low near deep convection. The GFS has also been too far east consistently this winter.

Well, for NYC's sake here's to hoping you're wrong.

Very August 2011 like. Flooding out there must be a disaster, it sure was here on that day. We had over 10 inches of rain in maybe 5 hours.

That was pretty much the path I took... I was in the Meteo major at Penn State for 2 years, then switched to Energy, Business and Finance, which is also a very broad area of study where you can develop numerous different specialties. Ultimately I want to pursue an M.B.A., preferably in the energy/renewables sectors. Many meteo students at Penn State took the E.B.F. minor (which is called Weather Risk Management or Global Business Strategies) and it helped them greatly in attaining positions at energy and commodities companies which value that kind of background.

Minor in another field such as econ or finance. That will give you a diverse background and make you more marketable to various employers, particularly energy companies.