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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    In the Bronx? No.
  2. jm1220
    State College with 9.5" from what I saw? Could be some really big amounts there with the band shifting east again. 18+ I'm thinking.
  3. jm1220
    Pivot east is starting in PA. Heavy snow moving back east now in central PA, so we watch this to see how intact it can stay coming east overnight.
  4. jm1220
    Over 0.4" liquid at Central Park. Maybe they're approaching 5"?
  5. jm1220
    Precip is already dying off around Philly. If it does go to sleet in NYC IMO it won't last long before dryslot.
  6. jm1220
    Eastport? But it's good for now that the warm air aloft seems to be coming from the SW more than south. Also look out Nassau! Big time snow incoming.
  7. jm1220
    There might be a crazy coastal front later as the surface low gets near us. Some models bring Montauk up to the mid 40s.
  8. jm1220
    At this rate I'll be there in 90 minutes maybe here. I'm close to 3" now.
  9. jm1220
    The sleet areas in NJ look more like splotches that get washed out rather than a solid line. Not sure if it's solid sleet everywhere out there? Maybe snow/sleet mix mainly.
  10. jm1220
    Impressive totals coming from the Philly area. 5.7" at PHL. Some 6-7" reports coming from just north and west of the city.
  11. jm1220
    Heavy snow now-dumping with some of the larger flakes. Measured about 2.5".
  12. jm1220
    Apparently-dry air was fast to head into PA which often happens. Models have even been hinting at the sleet racing north into PA today before here probably due to the lack of precip and lift holding the warm air back.
  13. jm1220
    That yellow band just got here-wow!! Dumping.
  14. jm1220
    When the precip starts to peter out later tonight the mix will come north faster. That's what's happening in PA.
  15. jm1220
    Legit heavy snow now. Crazy.
  16. jm1220
    You can see the mix struggling to move north where the heavy precip rates are and starting to surge north in E PA where the precip is weakening. Hopefully it stays like this.
  17. jm1220
    Solidly moderate snow now, just measured a little over 1".
  18. jm1220
    Sleet does accumulate, it's 3-1 ratio so 0.33" liquid would be 1" sleet. It's just that it pounds into and compresses the snow so the snow depth likely wouldn't increase. On another note I looked at a sounding for 5z on the 20z HRRR about where I am and the entire column looks to be below freezing, but it has me as sleet. Not sure how that can be. For a few hours before it's close but heavy snow rates hold off the warm air just enough.
  19. jm1220
    Decent intensity snow here now, good coating on all surfaces.
  20. jm1220
    The map includes sleet as snow.
  21. jm1220
    Snow comes in like gangbusters and accumulates 1-2”/hr for several hours, then we see where the dryslot and mild level warm air gets. That plus what back end snow there is determines whether we get 6-8” or the 12” officially predicted here. I’m leaning toward the 6-8” for now but a delayed warmup aloft and decent burst of snow to end it could mean it really works out.
  22. jm1220
    When even that NAM run was a crushing snow burst here later tonight I’ll take that as a plus.
  23. jm1220
    Not a surprise. A degree or two at 750-800 mb makes all the difference for many around the city and coastal areas.
  24. jm1220
    That’s essentially right outside DC near Arlington. They were expected to get maybe an inch or two there. We’re expecting (NYC anyway) about as much as far NW corner of VA and places like Hagerstown or Frederick MD.
  25. jm1220
    FWIW the “wall” of heavy snow we need is setting up pretty well down in MD and VA.
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